Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

tranquility1

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

Not according to the recent minutes issued by the Fed and the BOE.  In addition two developed countries increased their base rate in September. Seems as if high tide has been reached. 

Talk is cheap.  Let's see the Fed and the BoE actually do it.  And those other countries who've raised their rates will soon have to put them back down, I would imagine.

No need to imagine. Minutes are published in the public domain for all to read. 

I've just made the point that it doesn't matter what it says in the minutes.  What matters is what they do.  

Your response:  "read the minutes!"

Thrugelmir

tranquility1 said:

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

Not according to the recent minutes issued by the Fed and the BOE.  In addition two developed countries increased their base rate in September. Seems as if high tide has been reached. 

Talk is cheap.  Let's see the Fed and the BoE actually do it.  And those other countries who've raised their rates will soon have to put them back down, I would imagine.

No need to imagine. Minutes are published in the public domain for all to read. 

I've just made the point that it doesn't matter what it says in the minutes.  What matters is what they do.  

Your response:  "read the minutes!"

Something I read today. 

"Huw Pill, the new chief economist at the Bank of England has warned that inflation is likely to be a more persistent problem than previously expected. “In my view, that balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated,” he said in his first public remarks since taking office last month. His comments suggest that the BoE could be in favour of an early hike of interest rates when the vote is taken next month. "

Is this of help?  

aroominyork

My guess is that if you polled (this forum/the reasonably informed public/economists) two months ago about whether a rise in inflation would be a short-term blip or more medium-term, and polled them again today, a fair number would have moved from the former into the latter camp.

tranquility1

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

Thrugelmir said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

Not according to the recent minutes issued by the Fed and the BOE.  In addition two developed countries increased their base rate in September. Seems as if high tide has been reached. 

Talk is cheap.  Let's see the Fed and the BoE actually do it.  And those other countries who've raised their rates will soon have to put them back down, I would imagine.

No need to imagine. Minutes are published in the public domain for all to read. 

I've just made the point that it doesn't matter what it says in the minutes.  What matters is what they do.  

Your response:  "read the minutes!"

Something I read today. 

"Huw Pill, the new chief economist at the Bank of England has warned that inflation is likely to be a more persistent problem than previously expected. “In my view, that balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated,” he said in his first public remarks since taking office last month. His comments suggest that the BoE could be in favour of an early hike of interest rates when the vote is taken next month. "

Is this of help?  

In my minutes today:  "I can beat Tyson Fury in a boxing match".

sevenhills

aroominyork said:

My guess is that if you polled (this forum/the reasonably informed public/economists) two months ago about whether a rise in inflation would be a short-term blip or more medium-term, and polled them again today, a fair number would have moved from the former into the latter camp.

If the Government allow immigration to prevent long-lasting worker shortages, then will help, if they force employers to train staff, that will mean the shortage will last longer?

aroominyork

sevenhills said:

aroominyork said:

My guess is that if you polled (this forum/the reasonably informed public/economists) two months ago about whether a rise in inflation would be a short-term blip or more medium-term, and polled them again today, a fair number would have moved from the former into the latter camp.

If the Government allow immigration to prevent long-lasting worker shortages, then will help, if they force employers to train staff, that will mean the shortage will last longer?

Yup, we are promised a high skills, high wage economy by over-paying Brits to pick fruit, slaughter animals, drive lorries and wipe bums. We will pay for this by closing half the Universities.

[Deleted User]

aroominyork said:

sevenhills said:

aroominyork said:

My guess is that if you polled (this forum/the reasonably informed public/economists) two months ago about whether a rise in inflation would be a short-term blip or more medium-term, and polled them again today, a fair number would have moved from the former into the latter camp.

If the Government allow immigration to prevent long-lasting worker shortages, then will help, if they force employers to train staff, that will mean the shortage will last longer?

Yup, we are promised a high skills, high wage economy by over-paying Brits to pick fruit, slaughter animals, drive lorries and wipe bums. We will pay for this by closing half the Universities.

Not sure which logic you are using to state they are "over-paid". The supply of cheap labour has ceased thus businesses are required to pay a proper wage for these jobs to be done. The people doing the jobs before were being under paid because they were from poorer countries, needed the money and really didn't have much choice. Now after years of cheap labour and vast profit, the businesses are now the ones with no choice but to pay out.

Many industry have adjusted over the last decades to accommodate cheap labour that was willing to accept poor conditions. They cannot do this any more and have to make the work environment decent again, covid also plays a part with people asking what they want to do in life. It is a strong period of adjustment that will take another few years to play out. Until then they will kick and scream like a child without the toys. Consumers will may more for products and services of course. Not sure where the closing of universities come from. 

MK62

The economy will rebalance to the new realities.....but this rebalancing can be disruptive and painful.....pretty much what we are seeing now. 

aroominyork

If the absence of migrant labour shines a light on industries where working conditions are sub-standard or not properly regulated, that is a good thing. But replacing migrant labourers who are doing low end jobs with Brits by increasing wages on a supply/demand basis is not about rebalancing the economy; it’s shrinking the economy and making this a poorer country. Migrants do jobs other people do not want to do – that is the way many developed economies work and I have no problem with that; it is good for the country and, so long as working conditions are decent, it provides jobs and money sent home to poorer countries. The types of job I mentioned are never going to be attractive – not all jobs are – so if we get into wage inflation until, basically, we make Brits offers they cannot refuse to do low end jobs, something has to give. And that something is that fewer Brits are available for the higher end jobs they would otherwise be doing. That shrinks the economy and means we do not need as highly skilled a British workforce (hence fewer graduate qualifications are needed).

tranquility1

MK62 said:

The economy will rebalance to the new realities.....but this rebalancing can be disruptive and painful.....pretty much what we are seeing now. 

We haven't seen anything yet.  It hasn't even got started.