Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

lozzy1965

Diplodicus said:

Too much masterclass. 

Can anyone opine whether investors in equities shall be richer or poorer next week/year/decade?

I can.  Investors will be richer - or poorer - in all of those timeframes

Malkytheheed

Prism said:

Malkytheheed said:

tebbins said:

3. The velocity of money has slowed, therefore a greater money supply is needed to prevent deflation. 

You couldn't be more wrong I am afraid. We are on the verge of very high inflation. 

Such confidence in your theory but nobody knows. All that has happened so far is a surge this year down to very low inflation last year. It might continue and it might not.

It's not a "theory". It's an observation. 

"The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to August 2021, up from 2.0% to July. This is also the largest ever increase in the CPI 12-month inflation rate" 

Prism

Malkytheheed said:

Prism said:

Malkytheheed said:

tebbins said:

3. The velocity of money has slowed, therefore a greater money supply is needed to prevent deflation. 

You couldn't be more wrong I am afraid. We are on the verge of very high inflation. 

Such confidence in your theory but nobody knows. All that has happened so far is a surge this year down to very low inflation last year. It might continue and it might not.

It's not a "theory". It's an observation. 

"The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to August 2021, up from 2.0% to July. This is also the largest ever increase in the CPI 12-month inflation rate" 

That is certainly an observation since it has happened. However your suggestion of what is about to happen 'very high inflation' is certainly not an observation - its little more than a guess in the same way that others believe that inflation will calmly return back to normal. The central banks have a mandate of keeping inflation around 2% so for what you say to come true they either need to change that or fail to achieve it.

CPIH is the official measure by the way, not CPI and last August the increase was just 0.5% to go with this Augusts 3.0%. So nothing has really happened (yet) over two years.

sevenhills

Malkytheheed said:

It's not a "theory". It's an observation. 

"The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to August 2021, up from 2.0% to July. This is also the largest ever increase in the CPI 12-month inflation rate" 

We know that if we lower interest rates, this tends to increase spending and if we raise rates this tends to reduce spending.

So if we increase interest rates, it will reduce spending and demand, but it seems nothing is happening this year.

tranquility1

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Linton

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Perhaps you can tell us what we are on the cusp of?  And when will whatever it is that cusps do happen?  Where can the powers that be transition to and what good will their wealth do them there?  All assets except food, weapons and shelter will be worthless.

If things are as bad as you seem to think they are what anyone does with their investments/savings is totally irrelevent. So why post here?  Or do anything else come to that.  Why not just sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable?

On the other hand you could be wrong.

tranquility1

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Perhaps you can tell us what we are on the cusp of?  And when will whatever it is that cusps do happen?  Where can the powers that be transition to and what good will their wealth do them there?  All assets except food, weapons and shelter will be worthless.

If things are as bad as you seem to think they are what anyone does with their investments/savings is totally irrelevent. So why post here?  Or do anything else come to that.  Why not just sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable?

On the other hand you could be wrong.

We are on the cusp of a global financial meltdown.  The collapse of currencies.  The end of high street banks.  I think it will take place this winter.  Possibly even in late October.  The powers that be can preserve their wealth in hard assets (land, property, precious metals etc).  This will mean they have money when the transition to the new financial system occurs.  The average Joe will lose much of what they have as their asset prices collapse and their inflated money is worthless. 

I'm here because I'm curious as to what is being discussed, I'm bored, and I enjoy posting here.  I am not the "sit in a dark room type".  I am preparing.

Hope that answers your questions.

aroominyork

tranquility1 said:

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Perhaps you can tell us what we are on the cusp of?  And when will whatever it is that cusps do happen?  Where can the powers that be transition to and what good will their wealth do them there?  All assets except food, weapons and shelter will be worthless.

If things are as bad as you seem to think they are what anyone does with their investments/savings is totally irrelevent. So why post here?  Or do anything else come to that.  Why not just sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable?

On the other hand you could be wrong.

We are on the cusp of a global financial meltdown.  The collapse of currencies.  The end of high street banks.  I think it will take place this winter.  Possibly even in late October.  The powers that be can preserve their wealth in hard assets (land, property, precious metals etc).  This will mean they have money when the transition to the new financial system occurs.  The average Joe will lose much of what they have as their asset prices collapse and their inflated money is worthless. 

I'm here because I'm curious as to what is being discussed, I'm bored, and I enjoy posting here.  I am not the "sit in a dark room type".  I am preparing.

Hope that answers your questions.

You recently said you sold all your investments. Presumably the cash is not in a (high street) bank, so is it under your mattress or have you used it to stock up on beans for the long hard winter ahead (which would explain a lot)?

tranquility1

aroominyork said:

tranquility1 said:

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Perhaps you can tell us what we are on the cusp of?  And when will whatever it is that cusps do happen?  Where can the powers that be transition to and what good will their wealth do them there?  All assets except food, weapons and shelter will be worthless.

If things are as bad as you seem to think they are what anyone does with their investments/savings is totally irrelevent. So why post here?  Or do anything else come to that.  Why not just sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable?

On the other hand you could be wrong.

We are on the cusp of a global financial meltdown.  The collapse of currencies.  The end of high street banks.  I think it will take place this winter.  Possibly even in late October.  The powers that be can preserve their wealth in hard assets (land, property, precious metals etc).  This will mean they have money when the transition to the new financial system occurs.  The average Joe will lose much of what they have as their asset prices collapse and their inflated money is worthless. 

I'm here because I'm curious as to what is being discussed, I'm bored, and I enjoy posting here.  I am not the "sit in a dark room type".  I am preparing.

Hope that answers your questions.

You recently said you sold all your investments. Presumably the cash is not in a (high street) bank, so is it under your mattress or have you used it to stock up on beans for the long hard winter ahead (which would explain a lot)?

I am no longer in equities.  And certainly not bonds.  Cash, metals and crypto are where I'm at. Fully stocked food cupboard.

October is a dangerous month.

Linton

tranquility1 said:

Linton said:

tranquility1 said:

The central banks cannot reduce or raise interest rates.  All they can do is print money.

This financial system is broken beyond repair.  It will be replaced very soon.

The powers that be are filling their boots with loot, and they have arranged ways to transition with their wealth.


I am just shocked that any of you can look at the situation and not see what we are on the cusp of.

Perhaps you can tell us what we are on the cusp of?  And when will whatever it is that cusps do happen?  Where can the powers that be transition to and what good will their wealth do them there?  All assets except food, weapons and shelter will be worthless.

If things are as bad as you seem to think they are what anyone does with their investments/savings is totally irrelevent. So why post here?  Or do anything else come to that.  Why not just sit in a darkened room and wait for the inevitable?

On the other hand you could be wrong.

We are on the cusp of a global financial meltdown.  The collapse of currencies.  The end of high street banks.  I think it will take place this winter.  Possibly even in late October.  The powers that be can preserve their wealth in hard assets (land, property, precious metals etc).  This will mean they have money when the transition to the new financial system occurs.  The average Joe will lose much of what they have as their asset prices collapse and their inflated money is worthless. 

I'm here because I'm curious as to what is being discussed, I'm bored, and I enjoy posting here.  I am not the "sit in a dark room type".  I am preparing.

Hope that answers your questions.

If your plans are based on surviving the end of world as we know it they seem somewhat inadequate. A very full store cupboard would perhaps support a few weeks of unhealthy eating. Now what about water? Heating? Winter will soon be here.

How will you sell your gold? The bullion dealers would be closed. Even if they weren’t and you could actually get to their premises what would they give you? A sackful of worthless £50 notes though the banks will be closed so perhaps not. So you are reduced to barter with your neighbours. What would they give you in exchange?  A tin of beans could be worth more than a gold bar.  With no electricity and the internet down what good would your crypto be?

I am afraid you will be in the queue for the military-run soup kitchens along with everyone else.

ISTM people take all the benefits of modern civilisation for granted.  They are all ultimately based on the global financial system.  If that fails all bets are off.

If you want to prepare for the end of the world you really need to take it seriously.

What do you do if in 6 months time nothing has happened?