Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

coastline

What I'm suggesting is a method way outside traditional investing for the long term. Years ago I held RR shares and for many years they went nowhere. How long do you give these situations so I decided to sell at 130p. The day I sold they reversed quickly say 2% so I thought I'd look at some charts which I'd just got into. There it was STOCH ,RSI etc all on the bottom . From that day I observed daily situations with indicators such as FTSE DOW and individual shares. I noticed the connections with tops and bottoms and I basically used these as a guide.
I don't read company accounts so I leave that to the brokers and their forecasts. Most websites give two year forward earnings forecasts so that's good enough for me. Keep an eye on the news and away we go.
The system isn't used for day trading as I've no idea about that but I do understand the links between the DOW futures and the European markets especially throughout the morning. Let's say you have a healthy portfolio and you allocate 10% to some kind of short term trading. 200 grand so 20 grand to play with. We're not throwing away money on trading futures we are physically buying an ETF, Stock or IT just like anybody would do. That's the key. Too many people think trading is gambling. This is buying for your portfolio with a little help from just some of the many aspects of TA . 
Can we use it with funds ? Well you can't deal "live" but you can apply the system and decide for yourself. I've manged to find a suitable website and load up the indicators I suggested , Slow Stochastic, RSI, MACD and say a 10 day moving average. Straight away the Stochastics are showing an entry point in early MAY and are currently hovering along the top. HOLD for now.?

Fundsmith Equity I Acc, GB00B41YBW71:GBP charts - Investors Chronicle

EDIT. Have two tabs open. One with the DOW chart I showed earlier and the Fundsmith chart all set with the indicators. The Dow shows different entry points recently where Fundsmith has only one. Proves the point everything doesn't always move together. Basically Fundsmith buyers could have used early May as an entry point ? What's not to like.?

Thrugelmir

coastline said:

I don't read company accounts so I leave that to the brokers and their forecasts. 

Plenty of reading in company accounts not just a mass of figures. Essential part of selecting individual company investments.

coastline

Sell the FTSE 100 at 7040 . Right or wrong there's plenty more to go at.

Thrugelmir

coastline said:

Sell the FTSE 100 at 7040 . Right or wrong there's plenty more to go at.

There's over 1,000 companies to invest in. Never good to have a narrow perspective better to keep an open mind. 

coastline

Thrugelmir said:

coastline said:

Sell the FTSE 100 at 7040 . Right or wrong there's plenty more to go at.

There's over 1,000 companies to invest in. Never good to have a narrow perspective better to keep an open mind. 

I ain't narrowing anything down. This is my first call on a challenge not that I need any convincing that lower indicators and moving averages can help ride the waves. As I've said my returns improved since applying these methods 20 years ago after two episodes with FA's and buy and hold.
In an earlier post I explained my buy and sell was mostly based on using Slow Stochastic and 10 day moving averages. I'll add at this point a previous post from James an ex pro trader highlighted his thoughts on this matter. I don't think he was using the same method as me so basically my calls will come from indices and a few UK stocks and maybe a few funds. At the end of the day even if I'm right or wrong I doubt I'll convince the other 99%. I've set myself an impossible task.
It's also impossible to post " live " unless I'm expected to sit at a screen all day so anybody reading will have to trust my figures or simply check the chart with my settings as described in earlier posts. At the end of the day if anybody sets up a chart with my settings it's easy enough to blank the screen out and slowly open and read from the left to see potential buying and selling points. I know I'm wasting my time but I'm honest enough to explain and give things a try.
Anyway we'll see where the likes of DOW and VWRL are soon. 

EDIT.. Might as well add VWRL to the list as Sell at 86. If I'd been holding I would have taken profit by now.
SP 500 Sell at 4350. Dow sell at 34870. Back in a while.

beavere38

Lots of people taking the mickey out of what I have said on here over the past few weeks. I'm not bothered, I am just trying to alert people to the fact that the top of the market could be in and a crash could be around the corner.

Look back through this thread, on 23 June at 10:48pm I said this:

"I am trying to alert you to what I can see and it doesn't look good for the bulls. I posted my warning that the market may have topped 2 days after the all time high on the FTSE and Dax. We have not had new highs since so I am not wrong yet. If we get new highs then I was wrong and fair enough you can laugh at me."

I've just gone back through my charts (which might differ slightly from yours), the FTSE futures made an all time high on 16th June at 7,218. We're now at 6,984 on the futures, price has struggled for a month to go higher. The Dax futures made an all time high at 15,805 on 14 June and it squeezed slightly higher to 15,816 on 13th July. It is now at 15,492. The Dow - same story - high of 35,092 on 10th May and has been struggling to get higher for 2 full months, we are now at 34,650.

I'm still not wrong. The Indices are all struggling to go higher. Mock me if you like but do some common sense research, take a look at your local area - for example take a trip to your local shopping centre and count the empty units - you know, the ones where they put pictures of a shop interior in the window so it doesn't look like it is empty. Lots of these smaller shops have gone bust.

Go to your local pub or your favourite restaurant tomorrow (Saturday) night and see how busy it is compared to a typical Saturday night pre-covid.

Try booking a summer holiday abroad. I'm sure I don't have to explain the problems connected to travelling and paying for tests / taking time off to isolate etc etc. My friend had to isolate for longer than the 7 days length of his holiday when he got home.

Do you have track and trace? If you get "Pinged" you are supposed to drop everything and self isolate for several days. How can a business function with staff taking time off like that? Do some staff make it up so they can stay home and get paid for months on end?

Take a look at the cost of your supermarket shopping. They are lying to us with the inflation figures. Real inflation is somewhere around 13 to 16%. 2 years ago I used to spend between £60 and £100 at Sainsburys now I spend £130 to £160. Sound familiar? They shrink the size of the item AND put the price up so 500gms becomes 420gms or 180ml becomes 160ml plus the price goes up.

Everything is broken right now and yet the stock market has been making all time new new highs (until just recently when it has stalled)

I stand by what I said a month ago. I believe the top is already in and a crash is coming. 

Prism

beavere38 said:

Lots of people taking the mickey out of what I have said on here over the past few weeks. I'm not bothered, I am just trying to alert people to the fact that the top of the market could be in and a crash could be around the corner.

Look back through this thread, on 23 June at 10:48pm I said this:

"I am trying to alert you to what I can see and it doesn't look good for the bulls. I posted my warning that the market may have topped 2 days after the all time high on the FTSE and Dax. We have not had new highs since so I am not wrong yet. If we get new highs then I was wrong and fair enough you can laugh at me."

I've just gone back through my charts (which might differ slightly from yours), the FTSE futures made an all time high on 16th June at 7,218. We're now at 6,984 on the futures, price has struggled for a month to go higher. The Dax futures made an all time high at 15,805 on 14 June and it squeezed slightly higher to 15,816 on 13th July. It is now at 15,492. The Dow - same story - high of 35,092 on 10th May and has been struggling to get higher for 2 full months, we are now at 34,650.

I'm still not wrong. The Indices are all struggling to go higher. Mock me if you like but do some common sense research, take a look at your local area - for example take a trip to your local shopping centre and count the empty units - you know, the ones where they put pictures of a shop interior in the window so it doesn't look like it is empty. Lots of these smaller shops have gone bust.

Go to your local pub or your favourite restaurant tomorrow (Saturday) night and see how busy it is compared to a typical Saturday night pre-covid.

Try booking a summer holiday abroad. I'm sure I don't have to explain the problems connected to travelling and paying for tests / taking time off to isolate etc etc. My friend had to isolate for longer than the 7 days length of his holiday when he got home.

Do you have track and trace? If you get "Pinged" you are supposed to drop everything and self isolate for several days. How can a business function with staff taking time off like that? Do some staff make it up so they can stay home and get paid for months on end?

Take a look at the cost of your supermarket shopping. They are lying to us with the inflation figures. Real inflation is somewhere around 13 to 16%. 2 years ago I used to spend between £60 and £100 at Sainsburys now I spend £130 to £160. Sound familiar? They shrink the size of the item AND put the price up so 500gms becomes 420gms or 180ml becomes 160ml plus the price goes up.

Everything is broken right now and yet the stock market has been making all time new new highs (until just recently when it has stalled)

I stand by what I said a month ago. I believe the top is already in and a crash is coming. 

The FTSE 100 has very little to do with the UK economy and almost nothing to do with the high street so I am not sure why you are trying to compare them. Also, I imagine many of us are invested globally and/or in individual companies and so don't follow the FTSE especially. Oh, and the time frame is long so I'm not sure how many care is there is a crash except for the benefit of buying a bit cheaper.

For what its worth I am up around 4% since the 23rd of June but even that is irrelevant over a normal investing term.

sevenhills

beavere38 said:

Lots of people taking the mickey out of what I have said on here over the past few weeks. I'm not bothered, I am just trying to alert people to the fact that the top of the market could be in and a crash could be around the corner.

The level of the FTSE is a very complex issue. The level of Sterling is 20% lower than 15 years ago, the level of Sterling is said to affect the FTSE.

So what effect is pumping all this QE having on the LSE? Does QE lower the value of the currency, I believe it does.

There was a warning from a committee of MPs this week about our overuse of QE.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57865703

barnstar2077

beavere38 said:

Lots of people taking the mickey out of what I have said on here over the past few weeks. I'm not bothered, I am just trying to alert people to the fact that the top of the market could be in and a crash could be around the corner.

Look back through this thread, on 23 June at 10:48pm I said this:

"I am trying to alert you to what I can see and it doesn't look good for the bulls. I posted my warning that the market may have topped 2 days after the all time high on the FTSE and Dax. We have not had new highs since so I am not wrong yet. If we get new highs then I was wrong and fair enough you can laugh at me."

I've just gone back through my charts (which might differ slightly from yours), the FTSE futures made an all time high on 16th June at 7,218. We're now at 6,984 on the futures, price has struggled for a month to go higher. The Dax futures made an all time high at 15,805 on 14 June and it squeezed slightly higher to 15,816 on 13th July. It is now at 15,492. The Dow - same story - high of 35,092 on 10th May and has been struggling to get higher for 2 full months, we are now at 34,650.

I'm still not wrong. The Indices are all struggling to go higher. Mock me if you like but do some common sense research, take a look at your local area - for example take a trip to your local shopping centre and count the empty units - you know, the ones where they put pictures of a shop interior in the window so it doesn't look like it is empty. Lots of these smaller shops have gone bust.

Go to your local pub or your favourite restaurant tomorrow (Saturday) night and see how busy it is compared to a typical Saturday night pre-covid.

Try booking a summer holiday abroad. I'm sure I don't have to explain the problems connected to travelling and paying for tests / taking time off to isolate etc etc. My friend had to isolate for longer than the 7 days length of his holiday when he got home.

Do you have track and trace? If you get "Pinged" you are supposed to drop everything and self isolate for several days. How can a business function with staff taking time off like that? Do some staff make it up so they can stay home and get paid for months on end?

Take a look at the cost of your supermarket shopping. They are lying to us with the inflation figures. Real inflation is somewhere around 13 to 16%. 2 years ago I used to spend between £60 and £100 at Sainsburys now I spend £130 to £160. Sound familiar? They shrink the size of the item AND put the price up so 500gms becomes 420gms or 180ml becomes 160ml plus the price goes up.

Everything is broken right now and yet the stock market has been making all time new new highs (until just recently when it has stalled)

I stand by what I said a month ago. I believe the top is already in and a crash is coming. 

We all know there is a crash coming, we just don't know when it will be! :  )

I think you knew when you started throwing in stuff about the Mayan calendar etc that people would struggle to take you seriously.

sevenhills

barnstar2077 said:

 We all know there is a crash coming, we just don't know when it will be! :  )

Back in the days when 15% interest rates were put in place to save our economy, our leaders thought that they had enough tools to 'fix' the market, it didn't work.

We now 'fix' the housing market by giving house buyers Government cash to buy homes and QE to keep equity prices high, these measures will keep markets going upwards for longer, but there may be something that causes a crash.