Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

House prices are irrelevant to me.  I don't care if my house is worth 1p.  So will everyone else's be.  My house is my home and I don't have much of a mortgage.  You might as well threaten me with a feather duster.

My pension is a guaranteed amount too, so a stock market crash doesn't hurt me there one iota.


A stock market crash would hit my £75K ISA badly.  It's almost entirely in equities.   But I have no plans for it and don't access it at all.  It's grown by 10% this year.  £2K this month alone.  I shall take my chances.  

That being said, I am not buying anymore equities until next year.  I am building up cash in case there's a crash and then I plan on buying the dip.

beavere38

Alistair31 said:

beavere38 said:

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

If you were 31 years old and very much in accumulation phase, what would you do at this stage?

I can't offer advice sorry, I am just warning what could be coming down the tracks. To predict the future you first have to look at the past.

[Deleted User]

beavere38 said:

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

I have seen a bit about the forth turn stuff. The one I saw suggested 2027/8 is when the current turning ends. At which point a significant event would occur. You could argue Corona is it and it has already happened, or Corona will be the cause of it. My bet is the economy will crash slowly over the next two years, by 2023/4 it will be significant. But it will pick back up, even if it is another Great Depression, eventually it will pick back up, be it in 5 or 10 years. People and economies always recover. The UK debt is nowhere near what it was after WW2. 

I am not sure what one is supposed to do with this information either, I remember being told in 2013/2014 that a massive crash was coming, but it never did. Even with Corona. A define a massive crash as 95% loss. Or something else so high the stock market is "gone" or worth very little. But I am just a man in the street. I will be looking to buy a place around 2024/2025. I hope the house market crashes so I can buy more easily. If it is bad as you suggest, and WW3 comes, money will be the least of my worries. 

I left school in 2008, I have always known bad economies. Nothing compared to the 30s or 70s I know but people get on with life. As long as I have food and a roof, I can still dream and save, better than nothing.

Alistair31

beavere38 said:

Alistair31 said:

beavere38 said:

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

If you were 31 years old and very much in accumulation phase, what would you do at this stage?

I can't offer advice sorry, I am just warning what could be coming down the tracks. To predict the future you first have to look at the past.

Was more curiosity than a request for actionable advice but fair enough. 

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

Alistair31 said:

beavere38 said:

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

If you were 31 years old and very much in accumulation phase, what would you do at this stage?

Are you asking for a friend, "Alistair 31"?

Haha. Merely coincidence if you’ll believe me, I joined this site before I was 31, the username 31 was my then door number, which just so happens to be my age this year

Type_45

[Deleted User] said:

beavere38 said:

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

I have seen a bit about the forth turn stuff. The one I saw suggested 2027/8 is when the current turning ends. At which point a significant event would occur. You could argue Corona is it and it has already happened, or Corona will be the cause of it. My bet is the economy will crash slowly over the next two years, by 2023/4 it will be significant. But it will pick back up, even if it is another Great Depression, eventually it will pick back up, be it in 5 or 10 years. People and economies always recover. The UK debt is nowhere near what it was after WW2. 

I am not sure what one is supposed to do with this information either, I remember being told in 2013/2014 that a massive crash was coming, but it never did. Even with Corona. A define a massive crash as 95% loss. Or something else so high the stock market is "gone" or worth very little. But I am just a man in the street. I will be looking to buy a place around 2024/2025. I hope the house market crashes so I can buy more easily. If it is bad as you suggest, and WW3 comes, money will be the least of my worries. 

I left school in 2008, I have always known bad economies. Nothing compared to the 30s or 70s I know but people get on with life. As long as I have food and a roof, I can still dream and save, better than nothing.

A housing market crash would be good for most people.  I don't see the issue.

I have over £200K equity in my house and it doesn't really mean anything...  It's lovely to think about, but I can't spend it and I wouldn't want to re-mortgage and access it.

Hexane

beavere38 said:

Uranus enters into Gemini in July 2025.

I think it's actually the other way round. In fact, that's ar5e backwards, so to speak.

PaulGBO

Type_45 said:

How connected are national economies, and indeed the global economy, with the international stock markets? 

I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.

Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.


Disclaimer: this is notwithstanding the fact that Lloyds, BlackRock and other financial institutions are buying up residential properties at a rate of knots, which perhaps doesn't bode well for the stock market going forward...

Yes if economy crashes, the stock market follows along.
Though at this time, I don't see any reason for a crash.
Inflation is a not a reason.

barnstar2077

beavere38 said:

Another week has passed by and no new high on the FTSE, DAX or Dow Jones. I could be wrong that the top is already in, we will find out in due course. 

Markets are cyclical. The business cycle - boom and bust. The housing cycle. Everything in life is cyclical.

Here is some research I have been doing on various important cycles and there is a storm brewing in my opinion. This is my own research and I am not a perma-bear.

At Number 1 we have the 80-100 year reserve currency cycle:

USA ??? years 1920-???

Britain 105 years (1815-1920)

France 95 years (1720-1815)

Netherlands 80 years (1640-1720)

Spain 110 years (1530-1640)

Portugal 80 years (1450-1530)

The USA is due to lose reserve currency status. Historically when this happens there is a lot of turmoil.

2. The UK House price cycle is 18 years. Next top is due around 2026.

3. The Strauss-Howe generational cycle of 80-90 years. We are currently in the Fourth Turning cycle.

"The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group

The authors describe each turning as lasting about 20–22 years. Four turnings make up a full cycle of about 80 to 90 years"

4. The 165 year Populist cycle combined with the 80-85 year great war cycle. The populist cycle describes how the mood of the people changes from being patriotic to being the opposite

1775-1783 American Revolutionary War - Patriotism was high

1861-1865 American civil war Patriotism was low (brother against brother)

1940-1945 WWII Patriotism was high

2021, 2026? Patriotism low (brother against brother, civil war etc)

5. The 82-84 year Uranus cycle.

Uranus enters into Gemini in July 2025.

"Uranus was transiting the sign of Gemini in 1775 and remained in Gemini until 1782 (Revolutionary War 1775-1783). The U.S. Civil War began in 1861 and ended in 1865, the corresponding Uranus/Gemini transit was from 1858-1866. WWII lasted from 1939 to 1945, while the Uranus/Gemini transit lasted a bit longer from 1941-1949."

6. From the Mayan calendar:

http://www.mayancalendar4u.com/13__52_year_cycles

The third, 13 year cycle ends in 2026 and coincides with the 104 year Venus cycle 1922-2026

"This current very beneficial THIRD 13-year cycle, 2013-to-2025, of the FOUR 13-year spiritual 'energy waves' brings in sweeping social and political changes creating high integrity partnerships karmically tilting world events, with the mid-point "flowering" in 2019 Year 7. Then we 'turn the corner' again in 2021 at Year 9."

If you think the Mayan calendar is nonsense then ponder this:

The very first worldwide weekend of world prayers known as the "Harmonic Convergence" of August 16 and 17, 1987, was set as to the ending of "Nine Hell Cycles" each 52-years long.

August 16 1987 saw the Dow Jones make an all time high for the year and marked the end of the bull market. This was followed by the infamous Black Monday crash on 19 October 1987.

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

Uranus cycles, Mayan calendar...

I remember seeing a book a few years ago that told you how to live your life according to the lunar calendar.  It included how to work out the best day to go to the dentist on etc.  You would have loved it!

Linton

beavere38 said:

Another week has passed by and no new high on the FTSE, DAX or Dow Jones. I could be wrong that the top is already in, we will find out in due course. 

Markets are cyclical. The business cycle - boom and bust. The housing cycle. Everything in life is cyclical.

Here is some research I have been doing on various important cycles and there is a storm brewing in my opinion. This is my own research and I am not a perma-bear.

At Number 1 we have the 80-100 year reserve currency cycle:

USA ??? years 1920-???

Britain 105 years (1815-1920)

France 95 years (1720-1815)

Netherlands 80 years (1640-1720)

Spain 110 years (1530-1640)

Portugal 80 years (1450-1530)

The USA is due to lose reserve currency status. Historically when this happens there is a lot of turmoil.

2. The UK House price cycle is 18 years. Next top is due around 2026.

3. The Strauss-Howe generational cycle of 80-90 years. We are currently in the Fourth Turning cycle.

"The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group

The authors describe each turning as lasting about 20–22 years. Four turnings make up a full cycle of about 80 to 90 years"

4. The 165 year Populist cycle combined with the 80-85 year great war cycle. The populist cycle describes how the mood of the people changes from being patriotic to being the opposite

1775-1783 American Revolutionary War - Patriotism was high

1861-1865 American civil war Patriotism was low (brother against brother)

1940-1945 WWII Patriotism was high

2021, 2026? Patriotism low (brother against brother, civil war etc)

5. The 82-84 year Uranus cycle.

Uranus enters into Gemini in July 2025.

"Uranus was transiting the sign of Gemini in 1775 and remained in Gemini until 1782 (Revolutionary War 1775-1783). The U.S. Civil War began in 1861 and ended in 1865, the corresponding Uranus/Gemini transit was from 1858-1866. WWII lasted from 1939 to 1945, while the Uranus/Gemini transit lasted a bit longer from 1941-1949."

6. From the Mayan calendar:

http://www.mayancalendar4u.com/13__52_year_cycles

The third, 13 year cycle ends in 2026 and coincides with the 104 year Venus cycle 1922-2026

"This current very beneficial THIRD 13-year cycle, 2013-to-2025, of the FOUR 13-year spiritual 'energy waves' brings in sweeping social and political changes creating high integrity partnerships karmically tilting world events, with the mid-point "flowering" in 2019 Year 7. Then we 'turn the corner' again in 2021 at Year 9."

If you think the Mayan calendar is nonsense then ponder this:

The very first worldwide weekend of world prayers known as the "Harmonic Convergence" of August 16 and 17, 1987, was set as to the ending of "Nine Hell Cycles" each 52-years long.

August 16 1987 saw the Dow Jones make an all time high for the year and marked the end of the bull market. This was followed by the infamous Black Monday crash on 19 October 1987.

Summary

All these separate cycles are pointing towards great unrest and change around 2025/2026. There is a possibility of some kind of international conflict, an internal conflict similar to a civil war, a change to the reserve currency and general financial chaos.

Surely Nostradamus has something to say on the matter, that would clinch it.

Sterling was  a reserve currency into the 1970's.  Wikipedia tells me that in the 1950's sterling represented 55% of all global reserves.

As regarding the 165 year Populist cycle why are the dates only of relevence to the USA? What about WW1, surely patriotism was very high then, at least in Europe if not in the US.  Also the Uranus cycle is US.  Why did the gods take note of the US Civil War and not for example the far more bloody Russian civil war of 1919-22 when about 10 times as many people were killed?