Octopus Tracker

la531983

Few minutes away from finding out what the damage is tomorrow....

la531983

Down 7p here tomorrow to 29.11

zoonyx

bristolleedsfan said:

zoonyx said:

masonic said:

zoonyx said:

And of course ‘new’ tracker, at least at the moment, looks almost like they just want to close it down really.

do we think they will ever improve tracker or is it only going one way now?

It has been repriced to include costs that have come into play in the years since the tariff was originally launched. If they wanted to close it down, then they could make it unavailable to new customers and renewals at any time. It would be a lot less hassle than playing around with the costs every quarter. Even the new formula looks a bit better than SVT over the long run.

There are good reasons to think prospects elsewhere will be better (such as Agile, or Tomato Energy if you dare, or a fix if you believe next year will be more like the past month than the spring/summer), but if you are suddenly questioning things in the middle of a period of supply shortage, then that is a red flag. This is not the first time prices have spiked and it will not be the last.

In Feb, the fix will likely be higher according to predictions, and if I leave now at least the tracker 9 month cool off starts now rather than feb.

Please feel free to point out the flaw in my plan, but I'm now pretty certain I may as well fix.  

9 month rule does not apply when fixed term is honoured by customer(s)

How I see it is customers who see out fixed term might then decide tracker is better than alternatives, stay on tracker then back into cycle of cannot make decision to leave due to 0 month rule.

People can bang on as much as they like about gas being cheaper than SVR or not much different than fixed rates,12 month averages, does not alter fact all tracker gas customers are paying more so far this winter than consumers with/without smart meters who fixed with no exit fees late July - first week in August ( 5.39p kWh ish as well as early October.5.47p kWh ish.

Yes that's a fair point.  Obviously nothing that can be done but it does put things in perspective.  I just dont' see gas as being much as an issue compared to electric.

Thanks for the info on the 9 month rule.  Does that apply even if I've not completed my last 12 month renewal (but been on tracker in various guises for multiple years).

bristolleedsfan

zoonyx said:

bristolleedsfan said:

zoonyx said:

masonic said:

zoonyx said:

And of course ‘new’ tracker, at least at the moment, looks almost like they just want to close it down really.

do we think they will ever improve tracker or is it only going one way now?

It has been repriced to include costs that have come into play in the years since the tariff was originally launched. If they wanted to close it down, then they could make it unavailable to new customers and renewals at any time. It would be a lot less hassle than playing around with the costs every quarter. Even the new formula looks a bit better than SVT over the long run.

There are good reasons to think prospects elsewhere will be better (such as Agile, or Tomato Energy if you dare, or a fix if you believe next year will be more like the past month than the spring/summer), but if you are suddenly questioning things in the middle of a period of supply shortage, then that is a red flag. This is not the first time prices have spiked and it will not be the last.

In Feb, the fix will likely be higher according to predictions, and if I leave now at least the tracker 9 month cool off starts now rather than feb.

Please feel free to point out the flaw in my plan, but I'm now pretty certain I may as well fix.  

9 month rule does not apply when fixed term is honoured by customer(s)

How I see it is customers who see out fixed term might then decide tracker is better than alternatives, stay on tracker then back into cycle of cannot make decision to leave due to 0 month rule.

People can bang on as much as they like about gas being cheaper than SVR or not much different than fixed rates,12 month averages, does not alter fact all tracker gas customers are paying more so far this winter than consumers with/without smart meters who fixed with no exit fees late July - first week in August ( 5.39p kWh ish as well as early October.5.47p kWh ish.

Thanks for the info on the 9 month rule.  Does that apply even if I've not completed my last 12 month renewal (but been on tracker in various guises for multiple years).

Nobody knows whether 9 month rule will be enforced consistently or inconsistently, posts elsewhere about Octo system/staff not enforcing Agile 30 day no return rule, only answer I have seen which was a public twitter reply to me that I previously posted screenshot  9 month rule does not apply to someone who completes fixed term.

masonic

zoonyx said:

masonic said:

zoonyx said:

And of course ‘new’ tracker, at least at the moment, looks almost like they just want to close it down really.

do we think they will ever improve tracker or is it only going one way now?

It has been repriced to include costs that have come into play in the years since the tariff was originally launched. If they wanted to close it down, then they could make it unavailable to new customers and renewals at any time. It would be a lot less hassle than playing around with the costs every quarter. Even the new formula looks a bit better than SVT over the long run.

There are good reasons to think prospects elsewhere will be better (such as Agile, or Tomato Energy if you dare, or a fix if you believe next year will be more like the past month than the spring/summer), but if you are suddenly questioning things in the middle of a period of supply shortage, then that is a red flag. This is not the first time prices have spiked and it will not be the last.

To be clear: I was the one who posted this yesterday having a go at people panicing over a spike.

HOWEVER.. stand by for an about turn.  I'm fixing.  I've been on tracker for years now, but my reasoning is as follows:

Both fuels are on December 23, and expire in February 24.  The fix currently is around 22p for me,and **IGNORING THE CURRENT SPIKES** it's not often its consistently below that even on December 23.  On October 24, it will be even higher so I don't see the point in sticking.

In Feb, the fix will likely be higher according to predictions, and if I leave now at least the tracker 9 month cool off starts now rather than feb.

Please feel free to point out the flaw in my plan, but I'm now pretty certain I may as well fix.  

This is electric only - I'd prob leave Gas on tracker for now, but Gas is pretty boring anyway. 

I don't plan on staying beyond Feb, and will probably jump to Agile. This week has been a timely reminder that doing so prematurely carries some risk.

You seem sure that the only way is up, while I have a very loosely held conviction that prices will not be as high over the festive period and summer months. Let's see whose crystal ball works better.

debitcardmayhem

Gas seems to be retreating well below last 4 weeks peak 👍
Strange that they are using more for generatin electricity

la531983

debitcardmayhem said:

Gas seems to be retreating well below last 4 weeks peak 👍
Strange that they are using more for generatin electricity

Its because there is no wind, no sun, 5 nuclear reactors are offline this week and the Dutch link is offline too.

debitcardmayhem

la531983 said:

debitcardmayhem said:

Gas seems to be retreating well below last 4 weeks peak 👍
Strange that they are using more for generatin electricity

Its because there is no wind, no sun, 5 nuclear reactors are offline this week and the Dutch link is offline too.

That’s why its strange for gas prices to go down, 65% gas this am for generation

bristolleedsfan

debitcardmayhem said:

la531983 said:

debitcardmayhem said:

Gas seems to be retreating well below last 4 weeks peak 👍
Strange that they are using more for generatin electricity

Its because there is no wind, no sun, 5 nuclear reactors are offline this week and the Dutch link is offline too.

That’s why its strange for gas prices to go down, 65% gas this am for generation

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

UK natural gas prices dropped below 110 pence per therm, their lowest in nearly four weeks, as Storm Darragh boosted wind power over the weekend, reducing gas demand for electricity. While temperatures are expected to dip briefly and wind speeds slow, mild and windy weather is forecast to return next week, likely keeping gas consumption in check. Also, European LNG imports are at their highest since January, with several shipments arriving despite delays caused by the storm.

QrizB

debitcardmayhem said:

la531983 said:

debitcardmayhem said:

Gas seems to be retreating well below last 4 weeks peak 👍
Strange that they are using more for generatin electricity

Its because there is no wind, no sun, 5 nuclear reactors are offline this week and the Dutch link is offline too.

That’s why its strange for gas prices to go down, 65% gas this am for generation

Here's the current wholesale gas price analysis from Trading Economics (note the chart on their site is pence per therm for gas for delivery next month, not the live spot price):

UK natural gas prices dropped below 110 pence per therm, their lowest in nearly four weeks, as Storm Darragh boosted wind power over the weekend, reducing gas demand for electricity. While temperatures are expected to dip briefly and wind speeds slow, mild and windy weather is forecast to return next week, likely keeping gas consumption in check. Also, European LNG imports are at their highest since January, with several shipments arriving despite delays caused by the storm. Meanwhile, muted Asian demand has led to the resale of LNG cargoes, taking advantage of higher spot prices.

So, despite the UK's current high demand, it seems there is plenty of gas to go around.