How will old houses be heated in 20 years time?

brewerdave

Mintyrbc said:

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

I have had my 1890's cottage retro fitted with one and at a flow temp of 45 degrees it is achieving a room temp through oversized radiators of 20 degrees at around 3 degrees outdoor temp using roughly equivalent cost as when i was running a gas boiler. Below 3 degrees the efficiency starts to drop and the pump starts to work harder and the smart meter shows a slightly increased cost, its not horrific like some make out though. At minus temps the heat pump starts to drop temp is achieving 18.5 degrees through the rads which does feel cold, however Im about to instal underfloor heating throughout the ground floor of the house so expect that to make a good difference.
I have made an effort to insulate the plant room for the cylinder and all the pipework and tried to block all the drafts in the house.

The key issue for most people on here (in my view anyway) is the capital cost for such a conversion - much change from £20k ???

All this adds up and there needs to be significant investment from the govt to make it feasible for everyone. 
The other limitation is property size. If you live in a block of flats an ASHP won't work for you. However flats could be built with adequately sized GSHP to service the entire buildings heating requirements. That is not going to work for retro fits though so there is a huge gap in the market which is where hydrogen fuel cell boilers could step in. In fact GSHP could be used on new build estates to spread the load over different properties, there are lots of possibilities if the infrastructure is put in place before the houses are built. 

So my £20k was a sizeable underestimate !!
 Your point about new housing estates is very true - however , currently ~ 380 new homes being added to our "village" by Taylor Wimpey on a greenfield site - I asked what form of heating system they were installing - gas boilers & radiators with no solar panels ! So until central Government act then ...................

Mickey666

Government can of course skew the financials using taxes and even, as proposed, banning gas boiler in new builds but it'll be a balance between increasing costs for everyone and political popularity.  Don't forget that 'government' only means a five year period in the UK, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a future 'government' rescind or delay any such laws and policies.

But government interference is not going to change the long term reality that fossil fuels are on the way out and alternatives will have to be found to satisfy our power-hungry civilisation.  We're currently seeing some alternative possibilities being played with and early-adopters have been encouraged to invest, but the financial case is still not compelling except in cases where cheap fossil fuels are not accessible, so progress is slow but ultimately inevitable.  The only real debate is over the timescale.  personally, I don't think we'll see fossil fuels disappear and nor will our children.  It's going to be a very gradual thing.

Mintyrbc

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

I have had my 1890's cottage retro fitted with one and at a flow temp of 45 degrees it is achieving a room temp through oversized radiators of 20 degrees at around 3 degrees outdoor temp using roughly equivalent cost as when i was running a gas boiler. Below 3 degrees the efficiency starts to drop and the pump starts to work harder and the smart meter shows a slightly increased cost, its not horrific like some make out though. At minus temps the heat pump starts to drop temp is achieving 18.5 degrees through the rads which does feel cold, however Im about to instal underfloor heating throughout the ground floor of the house so expect that to make a good difference.
I have made an effort to insulate the plant room for the cylinder and all the pipework and tried to block all the drafts in the house.

The key issue for most people on here (in my view anyway) is the capital cost for such a conversion - much change from £20k ???

All this adds up and there needs to be significant investment from the govt to make it feasible for everyone. 
The other limitation is property size. If you live in a block of flats an ASHP won't work for you. However flats could be built with adequately sized GSHP to service the entire buildings heating requirements. That is not going to work for retro fits though so there is a huge gap in the market which is where hydrogen fuel cell boilers could step in. In fact GSHP could be used on new build estates to spread the load over different properties, there are lots of possibilities if the infrastructure is put in place before the houses are built. 

So my £20k was a sizeable underestimate !!
 Your point about new housing estates is very true - however , currently ~ 380 new homes being added to our "village" by Taylor Wimpey on a greenfield site - I asked what form of heating system they were installing - gas boilers & radiators with no solar panels ! So until central Government act then ...................

Cheap and low carbon fuel/renewable do not belong in the same sentence.
As stated current legislation states that Gas boilers can no longer be installed as of 2025. Until that point builders can do what they deem appropriate but anyone buying one of those houses should think about the future and potential cost of retrofitting it at some point for low carbon fuel, it's inevitable. 
ASHP may not be the answer as a single unit for every house may be very expensive and generally new builds are not known for having an abundance of outdoor space. The builder may choose to put a huge capacity GSHP in before the build commences to feed several houses in one estate, along with a solar array and battery for each house that will make them efficient.
We don't have a Trump like politician that will get into power and scrap green policies so expect this to be the new normal over the coming decades whatever party is in power.

Mickey666

Mintyrbc said:

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

I have had my 1890's cottage retro fitted with one and at a flow temp of 45 degrees it is achieving a room temp through oversized radiators of 20 degrees at around 3 degrees outdoor temp using roughly equivalent cost as when i was running a gas boiler. Below 3 degrees the efficiency starts to drop and the pump starts to work harder and the smart meter shows a slightly increased cost, its not horrific like some make out though. At minus temps the heat pump starts to drop temp is achieving 18.5 degrees through the rads which does feel cold, however Im about to instal underfloor heating throughout the ground floor of the house so expect that to make a good difference.
I have made an effort to insulate the plant room for the cylinder and all the pipework and tried to block all the drafts in the house.

The key issue for most people on here (in my view anyway) is the capital cost for such a conversion - much change from £20k ???

All this adds up and there needs to be significant investment from the govt to make it feasible for everyone. 
The other limitation is property size. If you live in a block of flats an ASHP won't work for you. However flats could be built with adequately sized GSHP to service the entire buildings heating requirements. That is not going to work for retro fits though so there is a huge gap in the market which is where hydrogen fuel cell boilers could step in. In fact GSHP could be used on new build estates to spread the load over different properties, there are lots of possibilities if the infrastructure is put in place before the houses are built. 

So my £20k was a sizeable underestimate !!
 Your point about new housing estates is very true - however , currently ~ 380 new homes being added to our "village" by Taylor Wimpey on a greenfield site - I asked what form of heating system they were installing - gas boilers & radiators with no solar panels ! So until central Government act then ...................

Cheap and low carbon fuel/renewable do not belong in the same sentence.
As stated current legislation states that Gas boilers can no longer be installed as of 2025. Until that point builders can do what they deem appropriate but anyone buying one of those houses should think about the future and potential cost of retrofitting it at some point for low carbon fuel, it's inevitable. 
ASHP may not be the answer as a single unit for every house may be very expensive and generally new builds are not known for having an abundance of outdoor space. The builder may choose to put a huge capacity GSHP in before the build commences to feed several houses in one estate, along with a solar array and battery for each house that will make them efficient.
We don't have a Trump like politician that will get into power and scrap green policies so expect this to be the new normal over the coming decades whatever party is in power.

I agree that green policies won't be scrapped but I wouldn't be surprised to see them being 'adjusted' depending on the public mood.  Higher energy prices are going to hit everyone because our entire civilisation is energy-hungry.  It won't just be our heating bills that increase, it will be food, transport, anything manufactured - basically everything!  That will cause increasing social stress, perhaps even active unrest.  It will be a brave government that resists that sort of electoral pressure when all it has to do is turn the gas taps back on.  These are not simply technological issues but also politico-economic issues.  If only they were, because the technology is the easiest bit!

Mintyrbc

Mickey666 said:

Mintyrbc said:

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

brewerdave said:

Mintyrbc said:

I have had my 1890's cottage retro fitted with one and at a flow temp of 45 degrees it is achieving a room temp through oversized radiators of 20 degrees at around 3 degrees outdoor temp using roughly equivalent cost as when i was running a gas boiler. Below 3 degrees the efficiency starts to drop and the pump starts to work harder and the smart meter shows a slightly increased cost, its not horrific like some make out though. At minus temps the heat pump starts to drop temp is achieving 18.5 degrees through the rads which does feel cold, however Im about to instal underfloor heating throughout the ground floor of the house so expect that to make a good difference.
I have made an effort to insulate the plant room for the cylinder and all the pipework and tried to block all the drafts in the house.

The key issue for most people on here (in my view anyway) is the capital cost for such a conversion - much change from £20k ???

All this adds up and there needs to be significant investment from the govt to make it feasible for everyone. 
The other limitation is property size. If you live in a block of flats an ASHP won't work for you. However flats could be built with adequately sized GSHP to service the entire buildings heating requirements. That is not going to work for retro fits though so there is a huge gap in the market which is where hydrogen fuel cell boilers could step in. In fact GSHP could be used on new build estates to spread the load over different properties, there are lots of possibilities if the infrastructure is put in place before the houses are built. 

So my £20k was a sizeable underestimate !!
 Your point about new housing estates is very true - however , currently ~ 380 new homes being added to our "village" by Taylor Wimpey on a greenfield site - I asked what form of heating system they were installing - gas boilers & radiators with no solar panels ! So until central Government act then ...................

Cheap and low carbon fuel/renewable do not belong in the same sentence.
As stated current legislation states that Gas boilers can no longer be installed as of 2025. Until that point builders can do what they deem appropriate but anyone buying one of those houses should think about the future and potential cost of retrofitting it at some point for low carbon fuel, it's inevitable. 
ASHP may not be the answer as a single unit for every house may be very expensive and generally new builds are not known for having an abundance of outdoor space. The builder may choose to put a huge capacity GSHP in before the build commences to feed several houses in one estate, along with a solar array and battery for each house that will make them efficient.
We don't have a Trump like politician that will get into power and scrap green policies so expect this to be the new normal over the coming decades whatever party is in power.

I agree that green policies won't be scrapped but I wouldn't be surprised to see them being 'adjusted' depending on the public mood.  Higher energy prices are going to hit everyone because our entire civilisation is energy-hungry.  It won't just be our heating bills that increase, it will be food, transport, anything manufactured - basically everything!  That will cause increasing social stress, perhaps even active unrest.  It will be a brave government that resists that sort of electoral pressure when all it has to do is turn the gas taps back on.  These are not simply technological issues but also politico-economic issues.  If only they were, because the technology is the easiest bit!

Yea, electricity prices are certainly becoming costly due to supply and demand. The more we move away from natural gas the more they will increase, until we have a better way of producing electricity and are able to reduce costs. In my opinion the only way forward to stay in line with all the governments green proposals is for the country to have a backbone of nuclear power infrastructure. All this takes time and huge investment. 

coffeehound

Mickey666 said: These are not simply technological issues but also politico-economic issues. 

I wonder how much of the EU's haste to 'go green' is influenced by the fact that its natural enemy Russia is supplying about 40% of its gas

Mickey666

Agreed.  There is going to be a huge demand for electricity as home heating and transport migrates to being electric and while renewable generation technology certainly exists it is not proving to be any cheaper.  I also agree about nuclear energy and it's a little ironic that it is generally so hated by the green lobby.  Yes, there are issues with it, but it does not damage the environment as fossil fuels have done, nor does it kill as many people as fossil fuels have done (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2267035-deaths-from-fossil-fuel-air-pollution-are-double-what-we-thought/ ).  But while it's a technological option, it's not a low cost option.
Perhaps fusion will save us all?