How will old houses be heated in 20 years time?

Ectophile

Gerry1 said:

Mickey666 said:

DSR regulation via smart appliance monitoring of grid frequency is an interesting idea, though I wonder if the grid control staff would really like to a have a system that they can't readily control.

DSR with smart meters will be far more granular and won't be limited to specific appliances.  Expensive Time of Use tariffs will deter many people from using ovens, hobs, kettles, tumble dryer showers at the times they wish to use them, typically 4pm - 8pm.  If that doesn't work when demand threatens to exceed supply, then your smart meter will use Load Limiting to ration you to a few kW, e.g. the kettle OR the hob OR the oven OR the tumble dryer, but the 10kW instantaneous shower will definitely be a NoNo.  When push comes to shove on a freezing dark night, Load Shedding can cut you off completely.

Needless to say, there will probably be various 'uninterruptible' tariffs available at a hefty premium, so that if you're rich enough only a fault or wide area power cut can affect you.

The people of Britain would never put up with a system that randomly shut off people's power without warning every time the wind dropped.  The government would be forced to do something about it.

The current SMETS-2 meters have no way to shut off individual appliances, and no way to warn customers that their maximum demand has been reduced.

Some large businesses are on contracts that allow their power to be shut off in an emergency.  They get a discount for that.

Gerry1

Ectophile said:

Gerry1 said:

DSR with smart meters will be far more granular and won't be limited to specific appliances.  Expensive Time of Use tariffs will deter many people from using ovens, hobs, kettles, tumble dryer showers at the times they wish to use them, typically 4pm - 8pm.  If that doesn't work when demand threatens to exceed supply, then your smart meter will use Load Limiting to ration you to a few kW, e.g. the kettle OR the hob OR the oven OR the tumble dryer, but the 10kW instantaneous shower will definitely be a NoNo.  When push comes to shove on a freezing dark night, Load Shedding can cut you off completely.

The people of Britain would never put up with a system that randomly shut off people's power without warning every time the wind dropped.

When the rollout is complete and smart meters start being used in anger, customers won't have much choice unless they illegally by-pass the meter !  When your smart meter says NO, it means NO.  Why do you think that all the DSR facilities have been incorporated if they will never be used?  A £30 energy monitor would have done the job, so there's obviously another reason for choosing to spend £475 per household.

If you re-read my post more carefully, you'll see that I never said that smart meters will shut off individual appliances.  I said quite the opposite, that DSR with smart meters won't be limited to specific appliances (i.e. the consumption of the whole house will be rationed).

Customers can be warned of Load Limiting by SMS and brief periods of disconnection, as used for several years in South  Africa.

bobfredbob

I expect cutting out will be a last resort.  Everything will be "voluntary."

First will be the "smart" devices, e.g., washers that take a little longer to do the load since they realize the grid is overloaded so use lower watts but take much longer to heat the water; or perhaps it will delay the spin.  You won't always notice but sometimes you'll wonder why your half hour cycle sometimes takes 45 minutes; maybe your oven takes longer to warm up or your tv picture is a little darker than normal.  These will work without a smart meter.

Then a little talking paperclip will pop up on your tv to say, "It looks like you're trying to watch BGT.  Due to xyz, it will cost you an extra £2 in electricity.  Would you like to watch it on catchup later when there is less demand?"

I think Nest in America has tariff information for some states so it can turn on the heating/AC at a different time or different temperature based on tariff.  I saw a UK "hybrid boiler" had controls that would switch between ASHP and regular boiler based on tariff information from your smart meter.  So, sometimes you'll be a little less comfortable in your house.

Eventually, with variable tariffs, people will buy lots of smart plugs that cut out electricity for themselves when the tariff goes above a certain level; or give them some notification.  They'll be sold as "smart charging of your phones", etc.  Probably your smart speaker/app/sms will warn you.

People who don't do that will be surprised when their bill is high due to having a shower in the morning or cooking at night.

I expect it will all be "voluntary."  Either you go on a very high standard non-smart tariff, or you have a smart meter and variable tariff.  Since meters have to be replaced eventually, everyone will have one.  In the same way you can't install single glazing, you won't be allowed a non-smart meter.

I think some areas in France have high tariff/not-so-high tariff days for electricity so they are expected to do the tasks on appropriate days.  Our smart meters are the logical extension of that.  If the government loses fuel duty, they must collect the equivalent by charging you a very high tariff for charging your car.  Maybe not this decade, but certainly once they're mandatory.

Finally, in around 35/40 years, MPs will be shocked at what has happened and say that no-one knew this would cause poverty for millions and they must set up an enquiry.

Petriix

I think Vehicle to Grid and distributed storage will largely solve the problems of variable supply and demand in the medium term. The surplus of second life vehicle batteries will also make domestic level electricity storage affordable. In 20 years I expect most houses will have their own batteries with the ability to store at least 24 hours worth of power. People will be able to top up when prices are low, and export when prices are higher.

My EV charger is part of a DSR trial where charging sessions are sometimes throttled or boosted. This will become the norm as more people convert to EVs with bidirectional charging the next step. You will simply set a required departure time and minimum charge level and the smart grid will utilise your car to smooth out demand. Most vehicles spend most of the time parked, and when people are driving them, they are not at home using electricity. By simply being plugged in while parked, they create enormous flexibility.

Properly insulated homes require minimal heating. Demand for domestic heating will massively decrease over the next few decades as soon as developers and landlords are obliged to take the necessary action to improve their properties.

Farway

bobfredbob said:

Finally, in around 35/40 years, MPs will be shocked at what has happened and say that no-one knew this would cause poverty for millions and they must set up an enquiry.

Also same time scale, electricity generated using sea water will be "so cheap it's not worth metering"  will be "just around the corner" once a few snags are sorted

Cardew

bobfredbob said:

I expect cutting out will be a last resort.  Everything will be "voluntary."
I think Nest in America has tariff information for some states so it can turn on the heating/AC at a different time or different temperature based on tariff.

I purchased a property in the USA,which was built in 2002. It was a block of 30 condos and the electricity supply to each condo enabled individual circuits in the condo to be disconnected remotely. I signed a voluntary agreement, for a generous discount, with the electricity supplier to allow them to disconnect, for no more than 30 minutes, heavy consumption items like Aircon, Water heater, Heat pump and Washing machine.

[Deleted User]

Proponents of Hydrogen shouldn’t forget that Hydrogen created by electrolysis is only 62% heat efficient as the electricity from which it was produced. (Source New Scientist).

[Deleted User]

Dolor beat me to the punch.^ ( I read 80%, but haven't personally tested it   )

Regarding 'storage', What happened to dangling a large weight into a coal mine, and using Wind/Wave/Solar/Nuclear to winch it back up again?

Oh, and i almost forgot, how noisy is an ASHP? Perhaps we are in for some noisy winter nights 

Mickey666

[Deleted User] said:

Proponents of Hydrogen shouldn’t forget that Hydrogen created by electrolysis is only 62% heat efficient as the electricity from which it was produced. (Source New Scientist).

Some proponents of hydrogen are more concerned with its sustainability rather than its cost.  I can understand why (cheaper fossil fuels wrecking the environment etc) but for most people struggling to heat their homes my guess is that cost is more important to them. 

This is a fundamental issue of all things 'green' and why every roof in the country is not covered with solar panels (thermal and/or PV) - it simply costs too much compared to the alternatives.  This is also why it takes laws to coerce people to change.  They might intellectually agree it's the 'right thing' but they just can't afford it, so they'll either wait until they can or until they are forced into it.

We've built our entire global civilisation on cheap energy and we've grown rich and cosseted as a result.  It's going to be a painful transition as the cheap 'kick-starter' energy runs out.  Hopefully it will be a slow, multi-generational process so that people can slowly adjust and not rebel too much, otherwise it could all get very ugly.

Ectophile

Dolor said:

Proponents of Hydrogen shouldn’t forget that Hydrogen created by electrolysis is only 62% heat efficient as the electricity from which it was produced. (Source New Scientist).

I can believe that figure.  But if it's a windy day, and you've got more electricity than you know what do do with, then it's worth doing something to store the spare energy instead of shutting down wind farms.