Turn £100k into £1 million

BrockStoker

You've massively oversimplified this. 

Yes. Sometimes you have to.

If it was that simple, we'd have had more than two RNAi-based pharmaceuticals developed in the two decades that scientists have researching it's potential in medicine. 

An alternative explanation could also be:

Other companies are slow, and Arrowhead is only just getting started. This is a relatively new field, and I believe ANYL was first to get an approval for an RNAi therapy in 2018 or 19. Arrowhead, instead of focusing on just one or two indications (like ANYL) has focused on getting it's platform and RNAi delivery system "perfect", while quietly working away on 13 indications which are currently in trials (including those which it has partnered), and I have no doubt it has multiple indications in the works which we do not know about.

Nothing is safe and effective until it has passed Phase III clinial trials (usually multiple) and been approved by regulatory agencies.

It's the same tech that ALNY used to get it's FDA approval, only better/tweaked, as the phase II data suggests. ANYL's approval effectively validates this tech. While it is true that a phase III trial is needed to confirm, IMHO the data from phase II (over multiple trials) has been nothing short of spectacular, when even good safety/efficiacy will be enough to be of significant benefit to patients which is what is required in essence.

Even if you can get the right RNA to the right cell, it doesn't mean it's going to be safe. 

It's already been shown to be more than safe, as long as it's done right. If done badly, it has the potential to harm. The real danger is in getting the RNA in to off target cells, where it can interfere in processes that are essential to us/life, but it looks like Arrowhead have solved this problem at least for liver/lungs/certain types of tumor. I believe they have the best targeting ligands out there.

fwor

Is it me, or is has this thread come over all "promotional"?

Apodemus

Brock,
Clearly ARWR is an interesting prospect, with some very promising candidates in the pipeline.  I have no doubt that the RNA approach will bear fruit - if not by ARWR, then by someone.  Unfortunately, I find the US model of presenting their financial data a bit opaque and (having a naturally suspicious mind ) that puts me off. 

I'd also be wary of the lack of easy info about the nature of all these collaborations - just how much return will there be to ARWR on commercialisation? 

And if it all starts to look too promising, I would bet on a buy-out by AMGN or JNJ, so that they can bring it all in-house.  While this might not be a bad thing per se, it might place limits on your potential upside, which could be well short of your 10x target...although I'm sure you would be happy to compromise at 5x!

BananaRepublic

BrockStoker said:

If you can point out specifically why that might not be the case, please feel free to do so. Otherwise, it's just hot air...

Glad to hear that you have multiple irons in the fire. Of course I can’t make specific points for or against this company, I have no idea if it’s a winner or a damp squib. But as someone here has said, your posts read like uncritical promotional literature. 

I know there are many people here who like you deal in single company shares, and good luck to them. Arrowhead Pharma shares are trading at a premium, but out of interest, where do you get your leads from for small companies whose share price is still modest? And as a side note, the small companies I have worked for were not publicly listed, and shares could only be bought direct from the company eg by venture capitalists. 

Old_Lifer

I only invest in a small number of the companies I look at and avoid computer tech companies as  I know next to nothing about computers (but I have managed to teach myself to bank   and buy shares online  ! ) and  I feel I would fail to understand  much of the technical stuff  if I tried to research and not pick-up on important points.       I avoid small mining companies too as they often need lots of cash and I regard them as particularly risky but of course there will be a few successes.     I have been topping-up my two 'Africans'  throughout last year as I would hope that they will both do well this year.

webjaved

Some awesome responses on this thread, made me chuckle. The OP really does need to research investing and take it from there. Making a reckless decision will ruin you with that amount of cash.

BrockStoker

Is it me, or is has this thread come over all "promotional"?

I agree, and after this post/my replies I'm more than happy to retreat back to my own thread where I will answer any other replies others may have. I was hoping to see someone post another valid solution to the OP's problem (besides my own).

In my own defense, I have only replied to posts directed at me, and defended what I believe in. It's hard to not sound "promotional" when you think you have found something that is "on a whole new level" compared to the rest!

Brock,

Clearly ARWR is an interesting prospect, with some very promising candidates in the pipeline.  I have no doubt that the RNA approach will bear fruit - if not by ARWR, then by someone.  Unfortunately, I find the US model of presenting their financial data a bit opaque and (having a naturally suspicious mind ) that puts me off. 

Interesting point Apodemus, and it's something that I was not aware of since I basically stick to US stocks. Could you point me to some info on the differences which make you weary?

I'd also be wary of the lack of easy info about the nature of all these collaborations - just how much return will there be to ARWR on commercialisation? 

It's another good point you raise. From what I can see the deals which have been struck are perfectly transparent and very favourable for Arrowhead. Our CEO is very clever in that he only makes the deals he needs to finance the company without the need for dilution of stock, which is a very different model to other biotech/pharma companies. He basically ONLY partners what he has to, and everything else is kept for pure profit. This is why I and other investors have no qualms and are very happy with the business model.

And if it all starts to look too promising, I would bet on a buy-out by AMGN or JNJ, so that they can bring it all in-house.  While this might not be a bad thing per se, it might place limits on your potential upside, which could be well short of your 10x target...although I'm sure you would be happy to compromise at 5x!

I agree, in a normal situation this would be a lightly course to take. However, our CEO has stated on multiple occasions that we are simply not for sale, and that he wants to take the company as far as it can go, most recently he said something along the lines of "$100bn market cap is the next target". Arrowhead is in a very strong position now thanks to phase II data that is amazing (there is no other word for it), so it can effectively call the shots, and leverage everything to maximum advantage.

As I keep saying, there are no obvious flaws - and that is not because people (including myself) have not been looking for them. One of the nice things about Arrowhead is it has a dedicated band of followers (on the Yahoo Finance message board) who pick through every little thing, and flag up anything significant, so I do believe if there was anything, I'd be aware of it.

I know there are many people here who like you deal in single company shares, and good luck to them. Arrowhead Pharma shares are trading at a premium, but out of interest, where do you get your leads from for small companies whose share price is still modest?

Many of the stocks I've found were spotted by reading the SA annalist reports here:

https://seekingalpha.com/stock-ideas/healthcare

In general I have found the reports there to be an excellent starting point, although they do sometimes get things wrong.

And as a side note, the small companies I have worked for were not publicly listed, and shares could only be bought direct from the company eg by venture capitalists. 

Some have commented that "Arrowhead is the one that got away", and should have remained private for the big money to be made by the private investors who can get in there before the rest of us, which is what usually happens. For some reason, it didn't work out like that for Arrowhead.

I only invest in a small number of the companies I look at and avoid computer tech companies as  I know next to nothing about computers (but I have managed to teach myself to bank   and buy shares online  ! ) and  I feel I would fail to understand  much of the technical stuff  if I tried to research and not pick-up on important points.       I avoid small mining companies too as they often need lots of cash and I regard them as particularly risky but of course there will be a few successes.     I have been topping-up my two 'Africans'  throughout last year as I would hope that they will both do well this year.

Well done - it certainly sounds like you have worked out how to make decent gains, even without specialist knowledge.

And just to keep things relevant to the OP's quandry, I think there are basically only two options:

1. A multi-horse multiplier (edit: that should be "accumulator") at the racetrack.

2. Invest in one (certainly no more than a few) small company.

The first option is a non-starter IMHO. If the OP picks the second option he would "only" have to invest half his 100K in Arrowhead to make it to £1m IMHO. The rest could be put somewhere safer, or into a couple of smaller companies (my picks would be AMRS and EVFM as per the "speculative punt" thread).

Username999

BrockStoker said:

One of the nice things about Arrowhead is it has a dedicated band of followers (on the Yahoo Finance message board) who pick through every little thing, and flag up anything significant, so I do believe if there was anything, I'd be aware of it.

Yahoo Finance message boards, are they still the US Pump and Dumpers paradise.

BrockStoker

Username999 said:

BrockStoker said:

One of the nice things about Arrowhead is it has a dedicated band of followers (on the Yahoo Finance message board) who pick through every little thing, and flag up anything significant, so I do believe if there was anything, I'd be aware of it.

Yahoo Finance message boards, are they still the US Pump and Dumpers paradise.

Yes, that is generally the case. However, if you think that's all you'll find on YF message boards, you are sorely mistaken. Not all boards/posters on those boards are created equal. Some boards have a much better s/n ratio than others, and the Arrowhead board is by far the best example I have come across.

But please, if you have any further comments/questions, post them on my thread here:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6083125/investing-in-biotech-stocks-my-experience-so-far

I will no longer respond to posts here.

Alice_Holt

MoneyTreeMe said:

Hi,
I have £100k spare cash.  I want to give it to an investor to turn it into £1 million.  I will give them £100k cut if they can do it. I missed so many opportunities with the covid stock market and am tired of making small amounts.  Is there an investor I am contact or maybe a company that can do it for me and generate meaningful cash?  Thank you.

     In my investing journey I've alighted on at least two "10 baggers".
     The first was Fidelity Special Situations, in which I started to invest during the mid / late 80's.  Sold in c.2003 (I think) after the split between UK and international funds following the departure of Anthony Bolton.   
    The second was Scottish Mortgage, in which I started to invest during the late 90's (when it had a different remit than now). I still hold SMT, and over that c.23 years time span the increase would be more than a ten-fold rise. 

     Both investments were part of a more balanced portfolio and investment was by way of regular savings (with the design to accumulate capital from spare earnings).
   The trick may be to eschew get rich quick schemes in favour of a more disciplined approach, make use of accumulating compounding over the years, use tax efficient vehicles, reduce costs, and diversify.