Turn £100k into £1 million

BananaRepublic

BrockStoker said:

FWIW - I believe I am on my way to doing similar. My initial investment in a portfolio of mostly biotech stocks has doubled from £40K to over £80K in around 14 months. I think I can turn 80K in to at least 1-2 million in 5-10 years by investing in a single stock (although I have other investments, so I'm not relying on this one to succeed), Arrowhead. Investing that much in a single stock is risky there is no doubt (nothing is 100% guaranteed), but I have yet to find a company that has the potential like Arrowhead does along with the security it offers. Read more about my journey/Arrowhead here:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6083125/investing-in-biotech-stocks-my-experience-so-far

You might succeed, but I’d bet against it. How about ten to one odds? People who invest in small start ups know that the potential returns are huge, but the failure rate is high. The one success easily makes up for the bucket load of failures. 

As an aside, until recently I worked for a small company that designed and made touchscreens, used in sectors such as cars. They had some big name customers. They developed a chip that gave better performance, allowing whizzy new features. The directors were telling us that shares would go up ten fold when they were bought by a big company. And we were generously allowed to buy shares. Well yes, maybe, but that was based on many assumptions, and was far from a done deal. For example, had one of the key technical people died, they would have been in deep doo doo. Or a competitor could appear with a better product. One of my memories was of the heating going off at 3pm, and the office getting colder and colder. And in my last year we had no xmas party. Not even a pub lunch. Lastly the pension contribution was 3%, the legal minimum. Signs of a healthy company? 

Cus

I sincerely hope his dream comes true. If arrowhead can find cures/treatments for cancer etc then the current 8bn market cap could easily be more than say Novartis (240bn), and his £80k will be £2.4mn. 

Thrugelmir

BrockStoker said:

Username999 said:

BrockStoker said:

FWIW - I believe I am on my way to doing similar. My initial investment in a portfolio of mostly biotech stocks has doubled from £40K to over £80K in around 14 months. I think I can turn 80K in to at least 1-2 million in 5-10 years by investing in a single stock (although I have other investments, so I'm not relying on this one to succeed), Arrowhead. Investing that much in a single stock is risky there is no doubt (nothing is 100% guaranteed), but I have yet to find a company that has the potential like Arrowhead does along with the security it offers. Read more about my journey/Arrowhead here:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6083125/investing-in-biotech-stocks-my-experience-so-far

Dream on.

I fully intend to. Those who do not dream don't have even a tiny a chance of fulfilling their dreams.

I would like to know though, what makes you so sure that Arrowhead won't ever make it to $1000+ share price?

Companies are very unpredictable entities.  Lots of hot money chasing shares higher more recently. 

planteria

MoneyTreeMe said: I have £100k spare cash.  I want to give it to an investor to turn it into £1 million.  I will give them £100k cut if they can do it.

extraordinary thread, but it's an interesting idea that i'd be open to discussing

barnstar2077

BrockStoker said:

FWIW - I believe I am on my way to doing similar. My initial investment in a portfolio of mostly biotech stocks has doubled from £40K to over £80K in around 14 months. I think I can turn 80K in to at least 1-2 million in 5-10 years by investing in a single stock (although I have other investments, so I'm not relying on this one to succeed), Arrowhead. Investing that much in a single stock is risky there is no doubt (nothing is 100% guaranteed), but I have yet to find a company that has the potential like Arrowhead does along with the security it offers. Read more about my journey/Arrowhead here:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6083125/investing-in-biotech-stocks-my-experience-so-far

Hasn't covid massively boosted biotech and healthcare stocks though?  I remember last year looking at two funds, one on insurance and one for healthcare.  By the middle of of 2020 the insurance one had taken a massive beating, and the healthcare fund was up 20%.  I haven't read your thread, but if I had taken the top five funds of the afore mentioned healthcare fund instead of the whole things I would have been up massively by now.  I couldn't have predicted covid however, and could just as easily have gotten no where. 

BrockStoker

You might succeed, but I’d bet against it. How about ten to one odds?

I'd give much better odds than that, but that comes from a fairly deep understanding of the science and the company. Just as importantly though (if not more so), I'd say the the odds of it being worth less than $100 per share (in 5-10 years) are less than 1 in 20 or 30. That is mostly due to the data we have already seen, which (once again) has been under valued by the market. Quite simply, the data suggests that at least two treatments for different indications are better (by a long way) than any other competing treatments. Even if only one of these treatments were commercialized, the current share price is more than justified.

What the annalists are missing is that this tech (RNAi) works in a repeatable and predictable way, both safe and effective, mainly down to the fact that it "hijacks" a naturally occurring defense system that is present in all human cells. Perhaps some suspect it, but are too frightened to stick their necks out. The implications are staggering.

People who invest in small start ups know that the potential returns are huge, but the failure rate is high. The one success easily makes up for the bucket load of failures. 

Absolutely. The trick is finding the hidden gems before the majority realize. It's not easy, but chances improve when looking in sectors that are not easily "picked through" by many people *if* you are able to understand the sector/science better than most. Even with all that some luck is involved, although I'd argue that the chances are better than ever today as there are many new disruptive technologies just starting to come through.

I did try the "buy 10-20 stocks" strategy at first, but it's not easy to keep an eye on/get to know 10-20 stocks in-depth, and money is also spread very thin, which is not a recipe to make millions. The answer (at least for me) has been to only go with my best ideas, or in other words, the stocks I have most confidence in get over weighted. Between my wife and I, we hold 5 individual company stocks currently.

As an aside, until recently I worked for a small company that designed and made touchscreens, used in sectors such as cars. They had some big name customers. They developed a chip that gave better performance, allowing whizzy new features. The directors were telling us that shares would go up ten fold when they were bought by a big company. And we were generously allowed to buy shares. Well yes, maybe, but that was based on many assumptions, and was far from a done deal. For example, had one of the key technical people died, they would have been in deep doo doo. Or a competitor could appear with a better product. One of my memories was of the heating going off at 3pm, and the office getting colder and colder. And in my last year we had no xmas party. Not even a pub lunch. Lastly the pension contribution was 3%, the legal minimum. Signs of a healthy company?

Thanks for the relevant tale, but, and with all due respect, your (ex) company is not Arrowhead. Sure a "key" employee could die at any point (in fact, one just did I'm sorry to say), but I'm sure Arrowhead's CEO has taken precautions to limit any potential damage by not keeping all the eggs in a single basket. Our CEO has made some very shrewd moves, and is obviously highly intelligent, so I'd be surprised if that was not the case here.

It's also hard to understate just how disruptive RNAi is already proving to be. Our CEO knows this, and is leveraging it to the max - a good example is the recent deal with Takeda, which is on terms so favourable to Arrowhead, they are unheard of within the sector, and possibly outside the sector, but I only really know one sector well! So we have some Big Pharma players (JnJ, and Amgen are also partners) willing to pay serious cash to even get a tiny piece of the action. That speaks volumes IMHO.

All of this is just the very tip of the iceberg, as those who do more than scratch the surface see.

I'm seeing some very healthy signs of late, including active hiring of new employees, new patents being filed, ongoing trials being expanded, and analyst price targets being upgraded on an almost constant basis (they are having trouble keeping up). Would you say those are signs of a healthy company?

I don't think you can compare a new kind of smart phone screen to an effective treatment (or even a cure) for something like hepatitis b. The former is just another iteration in an already existing tech, while the latter is truly disruptive game changer (and it's not the only one they have!).

So, yes, points noted that sometimes something can come out of the blue and throw a spanner in the works. It can happen to any company, but what really matters is how management would cope with a curve-ball every so often, and the record here is admirable from what I have seen, so I'm happy to have a sizable chunk of cash invested.

BrockStoker

Thrugelmir said:

BrockStoker said:

Username999 said:

BrockStoker said:

FWIW - I believe I am on my way to doing similar. My initial investment in a portfolio of mostly biotech stocks has doubled from £40K to over £80K in around 14 months. I think I can turn 80K in to at least 1-2 million in 5-10 years by investing in a single stock (although I have other investments, so I'm not relying on this one to succeed), Arrowhead. Investing that much in a single stock is risky there is no doubt (nothing is 100% guaranteed), but I have yet to find a company that has the potential like Arrowhead does along with the security it offers. Read more about my journey/Arrowhead here:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6083125/investing-in-biotech-stocks-my-experience-so-far

Dream on.

I fully intend to. Those who do not dream don't have even a tiny a chance of fulfilling their dreams.

I would like to know though, what makes you so sure that Arrowhead won't ever make it to $1000+ share price?

Companies are very unpredictable entities.  Lots of hot money chasing shares higher more recently. 

One of the things I like about Arrowhead is that it is relatively predictable (in good ways), and our CEO if anything likes to under-promise/over-deliver.

There are always going to be traders moving around money to what appears to be the next great thing, and making share prices more volatile than they need be, but at the end of the day it's the science/data which will drive the success (or lack of it) with a company like this one, and I believe this combination (along with great management) is about as good as it gets.

Perhaps I am dreaming (a little), but I have yet to spot an obvious flaw in the company/thesis, so until someone can point one out, I'm not budging on my stance.

Murielson

I believe I may be able to introduce you to some Nigerian friends who can help with your investment proposal ............

BrockStoker

barnstar2077 said:

BrockStoker said:

FWIW - I believe I am on my way to doing similar. My initial investment in a portfolio of mostly biotech stocks has doubled from £40K to over £80K in around 14 months. I think I can turn 80K in to at least 1-2 million in 5-10 years by investing in a single stock (although I have other investments, so I'm not relying on this one to succeed), Arrowhead. Investing that much in a single stock is risky there is no doubt (nothing is 100% guaranteed), but I have yet to find a company that has the potential like Arrowhead does along with the security it offers. Read more about my journey/Arrowhead here:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6083125/investing-in-biotech-stocks-my-experience-so-far

Hasn't covid massively boosted biotech and healthcare stocks though?  I remember last year looking at two funds, one on insurance and one for healthcare.  By the middle of of 2020 the insurance one had taken a massive beating, and the healthcare fund was up 20%.  I haven't read your thread, but if I had taken the top five funds of the afore mentioned healthcare fund instead of the whole things I would have been up massively by now.  I couldn't have predicted covid however, and could just as easily have gotten no where. 

I would argue that covid simply came along at the right time to highlight how undervalued healthcare/biotech was (and still is in more than a few cases). Keep in mind that the sector had under performed/been beaten down for the last 5 or so years anyway. I did make use of those dips, but during the March crash my stock portfolio (started @ the start of the previous November) did briefly (perhaps for a day or two) flirt around the 0% gain mark, after having hit nearly +50% in the weeks before.

So yes, profits from covid stocks (and others), which are now mostly sold, partly boosted my profits, but since 4-5 months ago Arrowhead has generated the majority of my gains, as I've bought up more and more stock.

coastline

If I'm correct you'll need to accumulate at a rate of 25% per year for 10 years. Don't think any indices will be anywhere near so it'll have to be single stocks in general. It'll be constant churning every year and you'll probably need 10-20 stocks to give yourself a chance.
Looking at my old records my Single Company PEP 1992 with £3,000 ended up at £36,000 before converting to an ISA in 2008 . All I was doing was buying and selling shares off the boil. Only one was a smallish company T.COWIE in the motor trade which doubled in a year. Others were mostly FTSE 100 which I bought out of favour. NXT. TSCO. ULVR. WTB. UU. to name a few. Thing is with a share it can move 20% in the wrong direction even though there's no problem. Just out of favour after a good run. Only information I had in the early days was the Investors Chronicle and some graph paper for chart plotting. My main investment fund was nowhere near as it was mainly unit trusts at the time and looking at the records doing around 8% per year.
Put my head on the chopping block on this thread when others didn't. Not bad at the end of the day. Same principle buying off the boil just a very volatile time. Basically all I do is read company news and brokers forecasts then use a chart for the buying and selling.
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