FTSE rising whilst prospect of FTA seems to be fading

BananaRepublic

thegentleway said:

BananaRepublic said:

thegentleway said:
Tariff free is a difference from WTO yes.

Free to make trade deals that’s no difference!
EU rules? firstly NI is in single market and subjects to EU rules anyway not obeying EU rules is pure WTO so that’s no different.
That’s 2 - 1 Thank you to making my point for me that the deal is closer to pure WTO/no deal than EU membership. 

We have no tariffs, and regulatory alignment wuth the EU, but tariffs can be introduced if divergence puts us or them at an unfair advantage. That’s nothing like WTO. The rest is just freedom, nothing to do with WTO. And yes it’s nothing like EU membership. 

OK but on the continuum of potential deals, the two extremes are no deal/WTO at one end and EU membership at the other end. Are you’re saying this deal sits perfectly in the middle and is the exact halfway house between no deal and EU membership? Coz that’s simply not true, it’s a lot closer to no deal than EU membership.

You can spin it any way that you want, but in economic terms it’s far closer to membership than not. In political terms it’s closer to non membership. In geographical terms there’s been no change. Pretty good in my view. But only time can tell. 

thegentleway

BananaRepublic said:

thegentleway said:

BananaRepublic said:

thegentleway said:
Tariff free is a difference from WTO yes.

Free to make trade deals that’s no difference!
EU rules? firstly NI is in single market and subjects to EU rules anyway not obeying EU rules is pure WTO so that’s no different.
That’s 2 - 1 Thank you to making my point for me that the deal is closer to pure WTO/no deal than EU membership. 

We have no tariffs, and regulatory alignment wuth the EU, but tariffs can be introduced if divergence puts us or them at an unfair advantage. That’s nothing like WTO. The rest is just freedom, nothing to do with WTO. And yes it’s nothing like EU membership. 

OK but on the continuum of potential deals, the two extremes are no deal/WTO at one end and EU membership at the other end. Are you’re saying this deal sits perfectly in the middle and is the exact halfway house between no deal and EU membership? Coz that’s simply not true, it’s a lot closer to no deal than EU membership.

You can spin it any way that you want, but in economic terms it’s far closer to membership than not. In political terms it’s closer to non membership. In geographical terms there’s been no change. Pretty good in my view. But only time can tell. 

I’m glad you like it! I agree the economic terms are good for the EU, they can trade their goods without tariffs or quotas. The U.K. economy is 80% services

MK62

cricidmuslibale said:

...because all nations (whether European or indeed elsewhere) no matter their size and economic strength become stronger when they act together and cooperate with one another to fight e.g. global poverty, deadly pandemics, international terrorism and potentially irreversible and catastrophic climate change!

Why on earth do you believe that membership of the EU is necessary in order to cooperate with other nations to fight global poverty, deadly pandemics, international terrorism and global climate change?
Sure, the nature of any cooperation might change, but it doesn't end unless one or both parties wants it to.......

Sailtheworld

BananaRepublic said:

thegentleway said:

BananaRepublic said:

thegentleway said:
Tariff free is a difference from WTO yes.

Free to make trade deals that’s no difference!
EU rules? firstly NI is in single market and subjects to EU rules anyway not obeying EU rules is pure WTO so that’s no different.
That’s 2 - 1 Thank you to making my point for me that the deal is closer to pure WTO/no deal than EU membership. 

We have no tariffs, and regulatory alignment wuth the EU, but tariffs can be introduced if divergence puts us or them at an unfair advantage. That’s nothing like WTO. The rest is just freedom, nothing to do with WTO. And yes it’s nothing like EU membership. 

OK but on the continuum of potential deals, the two extremes are no deal/WTO at one end and EU membership at the other end. Are you’re saying this deal sits perfectly in the middle and is the exact halfway house between no deal and EU membership? Coz that’s simply not true, it’s a lot closer to no deal than EU membership.

You can spin it any way that you want, but in economic terms it’s far closer to membership than not. In political terms it’s closer to non membership. In geographical terms there’s been no change. Pretty good in my view. But only time can tell. 

I work in the food industry. The FDF issued a summary document which compared the deal with no-deal. To say the deal is thin is an understatement. It's going to become clear that we're not a million miles off WTO over the next few months across the whole spectrum.

The deal being closer to membership than not sounds like a pre-emptive excuse for saying we didn't forge a path to the sunlit uplands because the government tied us too closely to the EU. I think it's a rubbish deal given the time it's taken. Geography dilutes so even if we manage a deal with, say, the USA it's unlikely to make up for what we've lost. Treasury reports from a few years ago suggest as much.

The opportunity has arrived for British exceptionalism to make itself known. I'll settle for some consistent competence.

ian1246

cricidmuslibale said:

It is and always will be imho really short-sighted thinking to make trade, security cooperation and coming together to combat massive global issues like climate change unnecessarily difficult with one's closest geographical neighbours i.e. other European countries. Many countries presently still inside the EU are far from happy with the balance of power lying too heavily with France and Germany at the expense of other less economically powerful nations and rightly so, in my opinion. The United Kingdom whilst inside the EU was the only country with the political muscle and economic strength to stand up to France and Germany and strongly encourage them to back off from trying to become more and more dominant at the expense of the so-called 'lesser nations' e.g. Greece; that was an unselfish responsibility this country could and should have taken for the greater good of European harmony as a whole. Instead we did anything but by bailing out and leaving both ourselves and the EU poorer, weaker and less important in a global sense whilst providing plenty of further encouragement, as if any further was needed, to nasty nationalists and hard right wing populists like Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orban.

This whole very sorry saga called Brexit will in time be rightly regarded as the disgracefully selfish act of a nation (in the UK) that acted purely for what it saw as its own narrow self-interest at the expense of the noble and unselfish alternative of coming together as one European family for the common good of uplifting humanity and helping to look after planet Earth, because all nations (whether European or indeed elsewhere) no matter their size and economic strength become stronger when they act together and cooperate with one another to fight e.g. global poverty, deadly pandemics, international terrorism and potentially irreversible and catastrophic climate change!

Evidently, you need to do a bit of research and education with regards to how the European Union has historically and continues to treat 3rd world nations. If you think the European Union acts for the "good of uplifting humanity" and fighting "Global Poverty" then I have a million ££ house to sell you.

I'd also point to the EU's track record with regards to "fighting a deadly pandemic". Where was the EU when Italy was fighting Covid19 on its own early on in the pandemic? How is the EU doing compared to the UK when it comes to the rolling out of its vaccine program? The answer is... its efforts and actions were extremely lacking. Individual member states like Germany have done well - but that's precisely because the member state has handled it well.

I voted to stay in the European Union - precisely because I saw the UK's role as being similar to that which you have covered in your post: A heavyweight which could act to bring balance to the EU and which, in the long run, would have become the dominant EU Nation (the UK's economic and population growth was on course to eclipse even Germany's by 2040) with ever greater influence. We could have steered the EU to the benefit of our interests, enhancing the wealth of the United Kingdom and its people - as well as the EU as a whole.

But I wasn't naïve to what the European Union is - a collection of first world countries, pooling their resources and acting together to better protect and expand their common interest - any attempt to dress the European Union project up as some noble "betterment" is exactly that - dressing up. It had nothing to do with Noble causes and everything to do with protecting and enhancing member states power and influence, collectively. Any future integration is simply a reflection of the changing world - namely European Nations and the West in general gradually shrinking in influence in terms of its % of the global economy/wealth, as other non Western Nations grow in strength and power - hence the greater integration, to allow the individual European States to better protect their interests against these growing external threats/competitors.

Personally I think the UK has made a mistake. We could have influenced the EU to greatly enhance and protect our interests - but it is what it is. The UK's future very much will depend now on balancing our economy/regulations to allow continued access to the EU Market, whilst striking out and reaching new beneficial agreements with developing nations, preferably linking these future agreements to political and military alliances to further strengthen UK (& the other nation) interests and to try and disrupt and mitigate the influence of hostile competitor nations (China/Russia) who are an active threat to fundamental British & Western Interests (Democracy, self-determination and the current role/importance which international law plays in nation states activities). Couple these efforts with acting alongside and coordinating with existing allied nations - the USA, EU, Five Power Defence Agreement Members etc... - then I think the UK could still do well outside of the European Union. We're certainly more exposed though by being outside.

LHW99

The UK's future very much will depend now on balancing our economy/regulations to allow continued access to the EU Market, whilst striking out and reaching new beneficial agreements with developing nations, preferably linking these future agreements to political and military alliances to further strengthen UK (& the other nation) interests and to try and disrupt and mitigate the influence of hostile competitor nations (China/Russia) who are an active threat to fundamental British & Western Interests (Democracy, self-determination and the current role/importance which international law plays in nation states activities). Couple these efforts with acting alongside and coordinating with existing allied nations - the USA, EU, Five Power Defence Agreement Members etc... - then I think the UK could still do well outside of the European Union.

Agreed, but none of these IMO requires us to be part of an "ever closer" political union with those countries we choose to make alliances with, as the EU envisages for its members.

csgohan4

Just a follow up on this post and there are not teething problems but serious problems going on for the regular Joe Business and customer getting stuff to and from the EU.

To those who swore by Brexit would be great for UK,  I remain to be convinced

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-55858598

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-55593308
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55887043

No tariffs doesn't mean no cost. Not sure if Joe Public/business was aware of the serious ramifications of leaving the EU and voted for Brexit blindly/ informed way

Ironically even the fisheries which they so adamantly defended has substantial costs selling to the EU. Bravo 

If you did your own research and aware/don't care, then good, but it impacts seriously on others. 

I wonder if our fruit and veg will have VAT slapped on top and therefore more expensive? that will affect us all

El_Torro

I'm new to this thread and haven't read much of it, so apologies if what I'm about to say has already been said a dozen times.

I don't think there's much point in debating whether Brexit is a good thing. Personally I voted to remain, but it's done now. Sure, we might rejoin the EU one day, but it's not going to happen any time soon. Unless perhaps if you live in Scotland, in which case you might be leaving the UK and rejoining the EU sooner rather than later

I work in manufacturing and I breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Free Trade Agreement was announced. I have been monitoring our imports (from the EU) and exports (to the EU) closely this year and yes, there have been teething issues and on costs, though nothing suggests to me that we're going to have big issues going forward. Most of the issues my company has faced can be described as teething issues. Who didn't expect that?

What concerns me more is not the manufacturing sector, but the financial sector, which is more important to the UK economy that manufacturing. It's still not clear to me how much of an impact Brexit has had / will have on this part of our economy. I haven't been following this area as closely as the effects on my own company's trade of course, but it's something that should concern us all if we want to live in a prosperous economy.

Thrugelmir

El_Torro said:

What concerns me more is not the manufacturing sector, but the financial sector, which is more important to the UK economy that manufacturing. It's still not clear to me how much of an impact Brexit has had / will have on this part of our economy. I haven't been following this area as closely as the effects on my own company's trade of course, but it's something that should concern us all if we want to live in a prosperous economy.

The UK needs to worry less about the EU and compete at a global level.  New York , Shanghai and Tokyo etc. Great opportunity to do so. With the freedom to regulate ourselves. 

benbay001

csgohan4 said:

Not sure if Joe Public/business was aware of the serious ramifications of leaving the EU and voted for Brexit blindly/ informed way

I think you seriously underestimate the intelligence of the average person who voted to leave.
Its been just over a month since we left and less than 2 months ago everyone still expected a no deal.
Business takes time to adapt and no doubt the EU and UK will work toward further legislation to harmonise trade.
Ultimately, imo we ended up with an almost perfect deal that gives us enough freedom in the world whilst retaining some links to the EU.
To reply to El_Torro's comment, here is a link to the Barclays boss's view of financial services post brexit. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55939857