The EV announcement - How will you act now The Quiz.

AdrianC

NBLondon said:
Will the stopping points install lots of fast chargers (costs them money)...

The services will contract with charging networks - and the chargers are a profitable product to the networks.

Grumpy_chap

If an EV can do 200 miles and then be charged for the next 200-miles in half an hour, that seems like it might promote a safety improvement by forcing a break every 3 to 4 hours.  I know we should all take regular breaks, but drive-through coffee bars at motorway services suggest too many try to avoid the break.

Herzlos

NBLondon said:

Herzlos said:

Most are glad of the pee break, or grab some food or whatever. It's not the deal breaker you seem to think it is.

That's a 15 minute stop for us.  If you could be reasonably sure of getting a charger at your parking space; plugging in for a top-up while you do everything else and then get back on the road with an extra 100 miles range then it works.  If you have to wait an unspecified time for a charger to come free - your 15 min stop becomes 45 or more.  If you are on your own - you can't go for a pee while you wait or someone will jump the queue for the charger.

All of the motorway services I've seen lately have had maybe 25% of the charging points in use, so there's capacity now.
I agree if there are problems which would cause a queue (power cut or even unexpected demand) then it may be problematic.

It's a bit chicken and egg...  Will the stopping points install lots of fast chargers (costs them money) in the hope of attracting more EV customers to stop there rather than the next point along?

When the majority of their customers have EV's, the majority of spaces will support EV charging. Not everyone will need to add 200 miles charge in 15 minutes, so the load may not be too bad.

Biggus_Dickus

Herzlos said:

NBLondon said:

Herzlos said:

Most are glad of the pee break, or grab some food or whatever. It's not the deal breaker you seem to think it is.

That's a 15 minute stop for us.  If you could be reasonably sure of getting a charger at your parking space; plugging in for a top-up while you do everything else and then get back on the road with an extra 100 miles range then it works.  If you have to wait an unspecified time for a charger to come free - your 15 min stop becomes 45 or more.  If you are on your own - you can't go for a pee while you wait or someone will jump the queue for the charger.

All of the motorway services I've seen lately have had maybe 25% of the charging points in use, so there's capacity now.
I agree if there are problems which would cause a queue (power cut or even unexpected demand) then it may be problematic.

It's a bit chicken and egg...  Will the stopping points install lots of fast chargers (costs them money) in the hope of attracting more EV customers to stop there rather than the next point along?

When the majority of their customers have EV's, the majority of spaces will support EV charging. Not everyone will need to add 200 miles charge in 15 minutes, so the load may not be too bad.

How long before we start to see large scale violent confrontation over ‘charging points’ at motorway services (and other locations) as demand starts to outstrip supply?

Future generations of schoolchildren may learn about the “The Great Tesla Riots of 2030”...nationwide anarchy, thousands killed and injured, Government toppled!

...could ‘appen!

Herzlos

Biggus_Dickus said:

Herzlos said:

NBLondon said:

Herzlos said:

Most are glad of the pee break, or grab some food or whatever. It's not the deal breaker you seem to think it is.

That's a 15 minute stop for us.  If you could be reasonably sure of getting a charger at your parking space; plugging in for a top-up while you do everything else and then get back on the road with an extra 100 miles range then it works.  If you have to wait an unspecified time for a charger to come free - your 15 min stop becomes 45 or more.  If you are on your own - you can't go for a pee while you wait or someone will jump the queue for the charger.

All of the motorway services I've seen lately have had maybe 25% of the charging points in use, so there's capacity now.
I agree if there are problems which would cause a queue (power cut or even unexpected demand) then it may be problematic.

It's a bit chicken and egg...  Will the stopping points install lots of fast chargers (costs them money) in the hope of attracting more EV customers to stop there rather than the next point along?

When the majority of their customers have EV's, the majority of spaces will support EV charging. Not everyone will need to add 200 miles charge in 15 minutes, so the load may not be too bad.

How long before we start to see large scale violent confrontation over ‘charging points’ at motorway services (and other locations) as demand starts to outstrip supply?

Future generations of schoolchildren may learn about the “The Great Tesla Riots of 2030”...nationwide anarchy, thousands killed and injured, Government toppled!

...could ‘appen!

There have been some incidents of people unplugging others cars (usually due to poor behaviour i.e. being parked on a rapid charger for hours, but most of the rapid chargers start billing the driver for being there an excessive time).

I don't think there will be large scale issues with it any more than there is at petrol stations (where the same thing sort of happens - you're waiting to use a pump but the occupying driver is doing his weekly shop), assuming that supply manages to keep up with demand and there's no reason to think that it wouldn't.

Busier services could even employ some kind of EV charging valet assuming there are more cars than chargers - drop the car off with the valet, do your stuff, get a notification that it's done and pick it up in a car park afterwards, voila.

It's also worth bearing in mind that not every car entering a service station will need to fast charge, though that does rely on people being considerate (a tough one). Some people really just seem to be in search of problems that don't exist.

Biggus_Dickus

Herzlos said:

Ditzy_Mitzy said:

18. No word so far on a ban on grey imports so I'll get me a proper car from Japan if this nonsense actually comes to fruition.  
19. Ignore the above, I'll just keep maintaining my old heap till it dies.  It might also make sense to get a dry building somewhere a 'lay down' a few cars for the purpose of future recommissioning.  
20. 2035 onwards is going to be boom time for the car restoration business.  It's going to be like the eighties all over again.  

What makes you think the Japanese domestic market won't be electric by then too?
You could buy a few cars and garage them to get round this, but is driving an electric car so bad you need to go to that hassle?
Very few EV drivers seem keen to go back to petrol.

Maybe it’s not so surprising;..my next door neighbour had his new EV delivered this very morning.

It’s a Tesla ‘Model 3 Performance AWD’;...online images appear flattering because in real-life it’s certainly not a ‘looker’,...very dull really imo, but it does get better.

0-60 in 3.5 secs & 166mph top speed!... so off the mark it will leave most supercars in its wake.

Ultra low profile tyres though,...I’ll remind him to be very careful and avoid those motorway potholes like the plague.

Grumpy_chap

DrEskimo said:

6. Already have one..although not so sure about the clever bit....

It's got to the point where I actually dread driving my partner's petrol...the noise, lag, gearbox.....the thought of going back to a petrol pump and paying £60+ seems ridiculously outdated too....

I'd very much like to go to an EV, but the capital cost is prohibitive, plus concerns about the range.

However, I am also not sure that EV drivers quoting the low running costs quite cut it.  One of the largest EV car manufacturers even has a part on their website listing "savings" versus an equivalent petrol / diesel, but their £50k car seems to equate to a £30k BMW, so are the "savings" real?  I did speak to one of their representatives who said it was a "saving" versus spending £59k on a conventional car.

Making this comparison has always been very difficult, but I see there is now a Citroen C4 available from £23k and Citroen C4 electric from £32k.  At today's fuel prices, that difference in outlay is around 75k miles before you reach "break-even" assuming you get all free electric from solar or something (and you already have the solar system installed).  Indeed, the "break-even" seems like it will never be reached?

Maybe someone can explain where the above is incorrect, or otherwise?

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

DrEskimo said:

6. Already have one..although not so sure about the clever bit....

It's got to the point where I actually dread driving my partner's petrol...the noise, lag, gearbox.....the thought of going back to a petrol pump and paying £60+ seems ridiculously outdated too....

I'd very much like to go to an EV, but the capital cost is prohibitive, plus concerns about the range.

However, I am also not sure that EV drivers quoting the low running costs quite cut it.  One of the largest EV car manufacturers even has a part on their website listing "savings" versus an equivalent petrol / diesel, but their £50k car seems to equate to a £30k BMW, so are the "savings" real?  I did speak to one of their representatives who said it was a "saving" versus spending £59k on a conventional car.

Making this comparison has always been very difficult, but I see there is now a Citroen C4 available from £23k and Citroen C4 electric from £32k.  At today's fuel prices, that difference in outlay is around 75k miles before you reach "break-even" assuming you get all free electric from solar or something (and you already have the solar system installed).  Indeed, the "break-even" seems like it will never be reached?

Maybe someone can explain where the above is incorrect, or otherwise?

You're comparing a 100% sunk cost (petrol or 'fuel' with an asset cost. Both the ICE and EV do not become worthless once you bought it, so unlike petrol or electricity (or other running costs) it doesn't make sense to draw this comparison. The cost is the depreciation cost, not purchase cost. A 32k EV is going to be worth more after 3, 5, 10yrs than the £23k ICE.

As it happens, the depreciation of current EVs is actually much lower than ICE. As I've said many times already, my used EV has barely moved in terms of value since I bought it nearly 2yrs ago. So whilst a used Clio may have been £2-3k cheaper than my Zoe, it will undoubtedly depreciated much more than my Zoe. That alone makes the EV cost effective, but then you add on fuel savings and it really does become quite stark.

So basically compare depreciation costs, not purchase costs.

I dont disagree that the higher purchase price is certainly a barrier to entry for many. Although given many buy new cars with finance that does also matter less. It's just a shame that manufacturers have such pessimistic GFVs. I know Zoe owners of the leased version had GFVs of around £4500 when they got them on PCP 2 yrs ago, so we're probably paying more per month for a Zoe relative to a Clio. However, they were trading them in at the end of the term to EV dealers for £11,000! So they were getting £6,500 back in equity....I don't think that was happening with the Clio's.....

DrEskimo

The debate about motorway charging and the infrastructure is an interesting one. Just to provide some stats tho, but currently a Tesla can easily travel ~200miles and have 250kW chargers. This can provide 1,000miles of charge per hour. Within 10/15mins you will have over 100miles.

The other thing to bare in mind is that EVs will not be fuelled like current ICE. The entire mindset and behaviour is different because the vast majority will be charging at home or work (or when out and about) at slower rates. Why? Well it's cheaper, but you also get into the habit of charging whilst you do other things! I have rarely ever actually waited for my car to charge. I do it whilst at my parents, or at work, or when shopping. When I move, I'll do it whilst sleeping.

So how many will actually need to use motorway rapid chargers? How many travel 200miles+ that they need a hours long charge to get 200miles? That's 400miles I'm a single day...

I'm any case, GridServe certainly look like they have a business model that may provide a solution nevertheless....36 chargers, £0.24/kWh and a dedicated battery (6MW) and solar array to help power it all.

https://youtu.be/FoN4WCpuxHY

Grumpy_chap

DrEskimo said:

Grumpy_chap said:

I'd very much like to go to an EV, but the capital cost is prohibitive, plus concerns about the range.

However, I am also not sure that EV drivers quoting the low running costs quite cut it.  One of the largest EV car manufacturers even has a part on their website listing "savings" versus an equivalent petrol / diesel, but their £50k car seems to equate to a £30k BMW, so are the "savings" real?  I did speak to one of their representatives who said it was a "saving" versus spending £59k on a conventional car.

Making this comparison has always been very difficult, but I see there is now a Citroen C4 available from £23k and Citroen C4 electric from £32k.  At today's fuel prices, that difference in outlay is around 75k miles before you reach "break-even" assuming you get all free electric from solar or something (and you already have the solar system installed).  Indeed, the "break-even" seems like it will never be reached?

Maybe someone can explain where the above is incorrect, or otherwise?

You're comparing a 100% sunk cost (petrol or 'fuel' with an asset cost. Both the ICE and EV do not become worthless once you bought it, so unlike petrol or electricity (or other running costs) it doesn't make sense to draw this comparison. The cost is the depreciation cost, not purchase cost. A 32k EV is going to be worth more after 3, 5, 10yrs than the £23k ICE.

As it happens, the depreciation of current EVs is actually much lower than ICE. As I've said many times already, my used EV has barely moved in terms of value since I bought it nearly 2yrs ago. So whilst a used Clio may have been £2-3k cheaper than my Zoe, it will undoubtedly depreciated much more than my Zoe. That alone makes the EV cost effective, but then you add on fuel savings and it really does become quite stark.

So basically compare depreciation costs, not purchase costs.

I dont disagree that the higher purchase price is certainly a barrier to entry for many. Although given many buy new cars with finance that does also matter less. It's just a shame that manufacturers have such pessimistic GFVs. I know Zoe owners of the leased version had GFVs of around £4500 when they got them on PCP 2 yrs ago, so we're probably paying more per month for a Zoe relative to a Clio. However, they were trading them in at the end of the term to EV dealers for £11,000! So they were getting £6,500 back in equity....I don't think that was happening with the Clio's.....

I remain unconvinced.  The low depreciation on EV's (currently) is simply because of low supply.  That won't remain the case for long.
It is not very money-saving to buy a car on finance or to swap until it is run into the ground, so even my comparison was extremely generous.
Taking the Citroen at £23k petrol or £32k EV.
I know the petrol one will run for at least 10 years, probably longer.
I am not so convinced that the EV will last as long as the battery will degrade and need a "write-off" cost to replace, or I accept a car with only 5 mile range from full charge.
Let's ignore that concern, and assume the EV will do 10 years before it is run into the ground.  I don't think residual (scrap) value of the EV will be any different to the residual (scrap) value of the petrol car.

So, the petrol car is £9k upfront less to find.  I said "break-even" at 75k miles based upon paying for petrol but zero charge for electricity, which is unrealistic.  So, by the time I get to 75k miles, the electricity will have cost at least £3k to cover that distance.  Which means I can fund another 25k miles from the petrol car, by which time another £1k on the EV (electricity costs), which takes you to yet another 10k miles of petrol.  I am now nearing 110k mileage before I get to a break-even.

BUT, actually, it is even worse, because to get a car equivalent to the £23k petrol Citroen, 400 mile range, I need a £50k Tesla.

Really, honestly, if I could make the sums add up, I would go for an EV.  I looked hard at this in January - February as my cars are 1997 Fiesta and 2007 Focus and the latter really is dying.  I did some 700 miles / week, 30k miles / year and on that basis, range is an important factor.  I could not get the sums to work so keep the old petrol ICE going.
Right now, with lockdown, my mileage has massively dropped to 500 miles / month which makes the idea of spending money on any new car pointless.  Time will come when a new car is viable, and at that time EV would be attractive if I can make the finances work.