BITCOIN

Zola.

What people label bitcoin as doesn't really matter. Long term performance matters. 

Perhaps look at where bitcoin was 5 years ago? Certainly would be a good store of wealth had you invested and simply held.... As all long term bitcoin advocates say. Hence "hodl". 

Like any investment it takes time. If your time horizon is 12-24 months you are going to lose, probably....

Its going to be interesting looking back at this thread in a few years. You only have to search old bitcoin threads here where certain 'financial expert' members are slagging it off when it's priced at £5000 and continue to do so today without actually considering (or having the humility to admit) that they are maybe wrong...  They say history doesn't repeat itself... I'm not so sure.. 

fwor

Zola. said:

Its going to be interesting looking back at this thread in a few years. You only have to search old bitcoin threads here where certain 'financial expert' members are slagging it off when it's priced at £5000 and continue to do so today without actually considering (or having the humility to admit) that they are maybe wrong...  They say history doesn't repeat itself... I'm not so sure.. 

You seem to misunderstand the point that most experienced investors here are making.

Most of us are NOT saying that it won't "go to the moon" in a years time, or five years time, NOR are we saying that it will go to nothing in a year or five.

I think what you will find is that most of the people who are not interested (like me) take that view because there are no indicators that could possibly give us a clue which of those it will be. I'm simply not interested in gambling on something with that level of uncertainty.

So it would be wrong to label people like me as "h8rs" and "anti-Bitcoin". I don't resent the people that got lucky - winners that gained because the price went up - and I do feel sympathy for the other side of that equation (the people that sold before it went up, and the people that bought before it dropped). And I won't feel any sort of jealousy about people who gain in future if/when it does take off again.

If you're going to start looking at past predictions, bear in mind that a "financial expert" and trader in Bitcoin predicted last year on this forum that the price would be over $100k by the end of 2021... If you're fair about it, you need to look at both sides of that one...

Zola.

Not missing the point I don't believe... but for the rest of your post I think that's pretty fair.

Putting hard dates on things is never going to work also. 

Malthusian

lozzy1965 said:

So not entirely sure it's a case of its use case widening so much as frantically rushing round trying to find one beyond being a way to switch money abroad quickly! 

When people have been running around for 13 years trying to find a use case, with a lottery win as the incentive for finding it, and they don't find it, absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

In 2022 it's like watching people trading Beanie Babies between each other trying to find the one that cures cancer or turns lead into gold.

The "use case" thing is dead and buried, it's all about the mEhDuHvErSe now. (Handing over real money for crypto which is then exchanged for computer game land or clip art, which is generated for free by pressing a button.)

mattywallace121

Its certainly going to be interesting coming back to this thread in 10 years time.....

HCIMbtw

Malthusian said:

When people have been running around for 13 years trying to find a use case, with a lottery win as the incentive for finding it, and they don't find it, absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

In 2022 it's like watching people trading Beanie Babies between each other trying to find the one that cures cancer or turns lead into gold.

The "use case" thing is dead and buried, it's all about the mEhDuHvErSe now. (Handing over real money for crypto which is then exchanged for computer game land or clip art, which is generated for free by pressing a button.)

Considering how useful your contributions can be on this forum I am always disappointed in the value of your contributions to this thread. 

mooneysaver

Malthusian said:

lozzy1965 said:

So not entirely sure it's a case of its use case widening so much as frantically rushing round trying to find one beyond being a way to switch money abroad quickly! 

When people have been running around for 13 years trying to find a use case, with a lottery win as the incentive for finding it, and they don't find it, absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

In 2022 it's like watching people trading Beanie Babies between each other trying to find the one that cures cancer or turns lead into gold.

The "use case" thing is dead and buried, it's all about the mEhDuHvErSe now. (Handing over real money for crypto which is then exchanged for computer game land or clip art, which is generated for free by pressing a button.)

Sigh. I don't want to sound like a stuck record, but the nocoiners in this thread seem to ignore any post which points out Safemoon are building wind turbines in Gambia. Using crypto to fund international aid projects whilst helping bank the unbanked.

Zola.

Why do you keep insisting on trying to derail a Bitcoin thread by talking about scam coins? Start your own Safe Moon thread please. 

Keep it on topic at least. This thread is for Bitcoin only. 

Frequentlyhere

As I see it, despite everything, the main reason for BTC's drop in the last few months isn't the 'exciting' stuff but a slow grinding rise in interest rates. There are better places for the big boys to put capital, just as they've fled the nasdaq too which is down 30% itself. With some yield emerging, it makes sense to exit investments that are highly speculative and sensitive to interest rates.



As you can see, the correlation has been pretty high of late, until early May when Luna/Terra happened.

I do feel that this shows that Bitcoin has somewhat 'succeeded' in establishing itself as an asset class in this respect, mostly through pure force of consumer demand leading instititutions as opposed to demonstrating actual value.

 Which means we end up with very odd news articles, like this one today: "JP Morgan sees significant upside to Bitcoin" in which it is reported that JP Morgan's analysts are feverishly expecting BTC at $38,000 whilst simultaneously referring to their CEO saying  "Dimon argued that Bitcoin was a “fraud” in 2017, and called the leading cryptocurrency “worthless” in October of last year. Still, Dimon noted that his clients are “adults” who can make their own decisions

Which let's be honest is a bit schizophrenic whatever side of the fence you're on.

The other thing I would take from that chart is that despite what some seem to think here, stablecoins matter hugely to the value of BTC. BTCUSD has yet to recover a 12% gap that has opened up since the Terra crash, and that that gap exists at all should make anyone invested in Bitcoin exceedingly nervy about the state of Tether as by far the largest stablecoin.

If I had to force myself to make a bull case for Bitcoin in the short term, then I'd pin my hopes on:

1) A Bitcoin spot ETF being approved - denied so far, in no small part explicitly due to Tether by the way. Certainly possible though, given the amount of juicy money/temptation floating around.
2) Interest rates stabilising/falling - seems a bit distant.
3) Maybe an alliance of developing nations 'adopting' bitcoin in fake-chivo El Salvador fashion.
4) Stablecoin regulation, which might in the long run help the stability of the scene.

Maybe some of that stuff will happen and momentum will build in it's $ value. Frankly though, I think this misses the point. Bitcoin has already lost in so many senses. Ben Hunt caught it exactly spot on.

That the value of Bitcoin now is being discussed in terms of interest rates, NASDAQ correlation, stablecoin regulation etc  rather than as a libertarian scream of freedom unleashing us all from the chains of Government money just shows that Bitcoin is very much becoming Bitcoin TM! A cartoon simile of Bitcoin managed neatly under the auspices of the FED + co. It's just another poker chip to play with in the Wall Street casino.

So I don't see it disappearing, but I also really struggle to see it outperforming. If it does, it will very much depend on it's most vocal enthusiasts continuing to come up with 'it's the future' narratives that detract from or somehow exploit this stripping of its soul in very convincing fashion.

HCIMbtw

Frequentlyhere said:

The other thing I would take from that chart is that despite what some seem to think here, stablecoins matter hugely to the value of BTC. BTCUSD has yet to recover a 12% gap that has opened up since the Terra crash, and that that gap exists at all should make anyone invested in Bitcoin exceedingly nervy about the state of Tether as by far the largest stablecoin.


Maybe some of that stuff will happen and momentum will build in it's $ value. Frankly though, I think this misses the point. Bitcoin has already lost in so many senses. Ben Hunt caught it exactly spot on.

That the value of Bitcoin now is being discussed in terms of interest rates, NASDAQ correlation, stablecoin regulation etc  rather than as a libertarian scream of freedom unleashing us all from the chains of Government money just shows that Bitcoin is very much becoming Bitcoin TM! A cartoon simile of Bitcoin managed neatly under the auspices of the FED + co. It's just another poker chip to play with in the Wall Street casino.

I agree with a lot of what you write, just for clarity on the first paragraph I copied, not all stablecoins matter to BTC, the luna/terra incident saw the algorithmic stable coin exploited after the person leading its development had invested a few billion (I think) in BTC as a reserve for the asset. It was a pretty niche set of circumstances of little relevance to the structure of most other major stable coins.  

On your last couple of paragraphs you copied I would reflect, as I think many people investing in BTC, it is very disappointing that BTC ends up correlating and being treated in line with markets and the NASDAQ. To claim this as BTC has already lost though is just hyperbole. 

Its a fraction the size and isn't able to decouple as a perceived risk on asset. As it grows we will see it decouple.