BITCOIN

User232002 · 2 May 2021 at 5:14AM

thegentleway said:

5% inflation would be annoying but not world ending (we've had much higher inflation). I don't think 5% inflation is a very realistic forecast; there is a lot of scope to increase interest rates since they are so low.

Inflation is already here. Sure, it doesn't show up in the CPI because supply is easier to increase there and demand has fallen off a cliff due to the pandemic; but there is a reason that hard assets (RE, Equities and BTC) have gone through the roof over the last year.

thegentleway said:
is your hypothetical inflation question about U.K. rampant inflation (would obviously use another established currency like the dollar) or you asking about all FIAT currencies inflating like crazy? It’s hard to imagine the latter but I guess people would turn to gold

The DXY isnt crashing only because every other government is also printing money like crazy. The latter is exactly whats happening. Gold inflows have tanked vs Bitcoin inflows over the last year. Whatever your opinion on inflation, it is unarguable to say that there is some market sentiment that inflation could increase - yet gold is flat since the beginning of the pandemic. The market has decided that Bitcoin is a better store of value.

Michael121 said:
For bitcoin. What is your price target? the mcap is already sky high, i don't see the multi bag potential. Or are you just betting on fiat currency becoming worthless over x amount of years, decades? Are you not concerned with the greed in the likes of this dogecoin, sure looks like a lot of gamblers getting involved in crypto at the moment.

I would be extremely surprised if Bitcoin doesn't hit $100k this year. My personal target is to take some profits and diversify at $150k but I will still have several BTC that I will be holding for the long term. Some models suggest that a $250-$400k BTC is possible this year depending on how over extended it gets. Regardless, given the type of buyers buying right now, the draw down will be significantly less than has been seen in the past (ie. its not going to $200k and then back down to $30k).As the market cap grows and becomes mature, volatility is decreasing and the drawdowns are getting noticeably smaller both in size and duration. Over the next 5-10 years, Bitcoin will eat the monetary premium of gold at least, which puts it at ~$400k/coin.

Beyond that, there are other crypto assets with much bigger potential. BKX (US banking sector) has only recently surpassed its 2007 peak, SX7E (Euro banks) is still 80% off its 2007 ATH and Japans banking sector has been dead since the mid 90s. The market is telling you that the current banks are terrible. ETH currently has a whole decentralized finance ecosystem being built on top of it - 10%/yr interest in USD stablecoins is remarkably easy to come by. Why? Because that's the market rate for attracting capital when you don't have a CB printing money and giving it away. If ETH was to capture even 5% of that financial services sector, the value of 1 ETH would be 20x what it is today. When you have an asset that even in a pessimistic case goes 20x, you buy all of it that you can.

ETH is complicated because there are ETH competitors that do similar things slightly better so it becomes more a question of which chain will win in the long run, whereas nothing in the crypto world will ever challenge BTC on its use case. Regardless, I think the prevailing view in the space is that those smart contract platforms as a collective will eventually eclipse the market cap of Bitcoin.

This is already too long, but you can also apply the same logic to decentralised exchanges that are generating billions in fees per year and distributing those fees back to token holders. Decentralised finance providers that will give me a loan within 15 minutes at very favourable interest rates (I took out a $15k loan earlier in the year at 1% APY) whilst distributing that revenue back to the token holders of the protocol.

P1 · 2 May 2021 at 7:13AM

deejaybee said:

Hi,

I'm considering dipping my toe into Bitcoin..

I live in a small market town in DEvon, and funny enough they have had a Bitcoin ATM in the local Tourist office since 2018 ish.

I popped in there today to ask some questions,they could only give me some basics, as it is actually operated by "ALPHAVEND"

They told me i needed to have a Bitcoin wallet, so that i could scan a QR code, then follow on-screen instructions and basically feed it banknotes. Its currently set at £100 minimum , and there is a £5 charge per transaction - i'm not sure whether there is a seperate % commission fee..

The manageress said that someone bought ONE Bitcoin for £5K back in the day, which must have taken a while to get the notes in.

So, anyone had any dealings/experience with ALPHAVEND ATMs ? Which wallet would be suitable for use with them ?
Ideally i would keep wallet on my Android mobile.

Thanks

Buying from a bitcoin ATM is a very expensive way of doing it. Its a lot cheaper to buy off an exchange. If you are able to use eBay or Amazon you can get an exchange account. I recommend Bitstamp or Kraken.

Scottex99 · 2 May 2021 at 7:14AM

darren232002 said:

thegentleway said:

5% inflation would be annoying but not world ending (we've had much higher inflation). I don't think 5% inflation is a very realistic forecast; there is a lot of scope to increase interest rates since they are so low.

Inflation is already here. Sure, it doesn't show up in the CPI because supply is easier to increase there and demand has fallen off a cliff due to the pandemic; but there is a reason that hard assets (RE, Equities and BTC) have gone through the roof over the last year.
thegentleway said:
is your hypothetical inflation question about U.K. rampant inflation (would obviously use another established currency like the dollar) or you asking about all FIAT currencies inflating like crazy? It’s hard to imagine the latter but I guess people would turn to gold
The DXY isnt crashing only because every other government is also printing money like crazy. The latter is exactly whats happening. Gold inflows have tanked vs Bitcoin inflows over the last year. Whatever your opinion on inflation, it is unarguable to say that there is some market sentiment that inflation could increase - yet gold is flat since the beginning of the pandemic. The market has decided that Bitcoin is a better store of value.
Michael121 said:
For bitcoin. What is your price target? the mcap is already sky high, i don't see the multi bag potential. Or are you just betting on fiat currency becoming worthless over x amount of years, decades? Are you not concerned with the greed in the likes of this dogecoin, sure looks like a lot of gamblers getting involved in crypto at the moment.
I would be extremely surprised if Bitcoin doesn't hit $100k this year. My personal target is to take some profits and diversify at $150k but I will still have several BTC that I will be holding for the long term. Some models suggest that a $250-$400k BTC is possible this year depending on how over extended it gets. Regardless, given the type of buyers buying right now, the draw down will be significantly less than has been seen in the past (ie. its not going to $200k and then back down to $30k).As the market cap grows and becomes mature, volatility is decreasing and the drawdowns are getting noticeably smaller both in size and duration. Over the next 5-10 years, Bitcoin will eat the monetary premium of gold at least, which puts it at ~$400k/coin.

Beyond that, there are other crypto assets with much bigger potential. BKX (US banking sector) has only recently surpassed its 2007 peak, SX7E (Euro banks) is still 80% off its 2007 ATH and Japans banking sector has been dead since the mid 90s. The market is telling you that the current banks are terrible. ETH currently has a whole decentralized finance ecosystem being built on top of it - 10%/yr interest in USD stablecoins is remarkably easy to come by. Why? Because that's the market rate for attracting capital when you don't have a CB printing money and giving it away. If ETH was to capture even 5% of that financial services sector, the value of 1 ETH would be 20x what it is today. When you have an asset that even in a pessimistic case goes 20x, you buy all of it that you can.

ETH is complicated because there are ETH competitors that do similar things slightly better so it becomes more a question of which chain will win in the long run, whereas nothing in the crypto world will ever challenge BTC on its use case. Regardless, I think the prevailing view in the space is that those smart contract platforms as a collective will eventually eclipse the market cap of Bitcoin.

This is already too long, but you can also apply the same logic to decentralised exchanges that are generating billions in fees per year and distributing those fees back to token holders. Decentralised finance providers that will give me a loan within 15 minutes at very favourable interest rates (I took out a $15k loan earlier in the year at 1% APY) whilst distributing that revenue back to the token holders of the protocol.

You’ve been reading Hayes 👍

P1 · 2 May 2021 at 7:25AM

Michael121 said:

Scottex99 said:

Michael121 said:

I have a question for and against bitcoiners.

Those against bitcoin. If inflation went rampant, would you jump on the crypto band wagon.
What percent would you use in crypto.

For bitcoin. What is your price target? the mcap is already sky high, i don't see the multi bag potential. Or are you just betting on fiat currency becoming worthless over x amount of years, decades? Are you not concerned with the greed in the likes of this dogecoin, sure looks like a lot of gamblers getting involved in crypto at the moment.

“Sky High” against what? I guess I wanna see $100k in the next year and then whatever after that.
Not a selling target for me either, it might become generational wealth at some point, so I’ll just hand my BTC down.
In theory the BTC marketcap target is that of XAU

It has an mcap of google. Point is look at all the money that has to flow into btc just for a double up.

Who cares? Its going to smash all companies market caps. Google will have to hold some btc on their balance sheet eventually. At around $63000 the bitcoin network has more value than the our very own UK £! I expect to hit figures quite easily this year. Potential blow of top in September a lot higher from here if bitcoin follows its behaviour from the previous 4 year cycles. Won't complain about it though. The biggest rally killer will be raising interest rates in the US and stopping stimulus. Can't see it happening any time soon

P1 · 2 May 2021 at 7:40AM

[Deleted User] said:

Over half of all the money in crypto is in the alts and their prices tend to move together with Bitcoin. It seems quite crazy to me right now, like in late 2017.

mid 2017

Scottex99 · 2 May 2021 at 9:08AM

Solenoid said:

I dont trust crypto enough to invest into it. It has no intrinsic value. Its popular at the moment and that's why price keep going up. As soon as big investors start selling to make profit, value will go down and even can go down to 0. Already 2 crytocurrencies disappeared because there was more sellers than buyers. You can invest into it if you have disposable money though that you are ok to lose.

Which 2?

There's probably been about 3000 coins/tokens die or become defunct in the last year and a whole load of zombie chains that nobody uses or builds on, to add to that.

No offence but you're just another in a long line of people who from that comment alone have no idea what the industry even is but are somehow convinced there is no value. Care to share why?

I'll share this: https://www.coindesk.com/tesla-sold-bitcoin-in-q1-for-proceeds-of-272m

Did the price crash after this news? No. Actually it's been rising and in fact, 2 days later: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanburgos/2021/04/28/korean-billionaire-kim-jung-jus-gaming-giant-invests-100-million-in-bitcoin/?sh=316295856a2d

This will just repeat over and over as cash rich companies diversify and look for yield. It wouldn't surprise me if most of the biggest companies in the world have it on their balance sheet within the next couple of years.

But yeah, when Zuck/Gates/Apple are dumping some cash into BTC, you're probably still right that it's worth nothing...

Scottex99 · 2 May 2021 at 10:09AM

People have been taking profits in it for 10 years, it’s a free market.

My own holdings have retraced hard a number of times but the narrative and fundamentals are still the same. Hence, number go up.

People should know the risks of course, and also know (or realise) that if there wasn’t value, we wouldn’t be here

User232002 · 2 May 2021 at 12:21PM

Scottex99 said:

You’ve been reading Hayes 👍

Indeed. That article is now the first link I pass on when my friends ask me about Bitcoin. Not only does it do a good job outlining the current broken system and the potential payoffs of crypto, but it encourages people to actually read the damn whitepapers rather than relying on whatever hot altcoin their favourite influencer is shilling this week.

https://blog.bitmex.com/yes-i-read-the-whitepaper/

HansOndabush · 3 May 2021 at 5:35PM

darren232002 said:

HansOndabush said:

Bitcoin is not a company, does not produce anything or pay dividends, you can't use it in industry or make anything from it like you can with gold,
Only a fraction of the value of gold derives from its actual use cases. The majority of its value is its monetary premium. Bitcoin does pretty much everything that gold does, but it does it far better so in time that monetary premium accrues to Bitcoin and not gold.

The hilarious thing is this entire thread is about Bitcoin and how people still can't wrap their heads around it, but most people in the space are way more interested and see far more potential in other crypto assets. I often think that crypto will separate those that can think and reason abstractly or from first principles from those that can not.
HansOndabush said:
The only way that Scottex99 can profit is by the fact that some greater fool is willing to pay a higher price for the Bitcoin tokens that he bought at a lower price. i.e. the latecomers to the party are paying the profits of the early arrivers; is that not the nature of a ponzi scheme?

As I've stated before, we don't need MSE'rs to buy our bags. Its a $1T asset, so whatever people from this forum throw at it is not going to move it in any meaningful way. Tesla, Microstrategy, Massmutual, Square et al have bought billions of $ of BTC. Chances are Elon probably has a better idea of managing money than you do. Chances are that he consulted with several people before that purchase; people who all also probably have a better chance of managing money than you do.

A 'fraction' you say? See here:

https://www.physicalgold.com/insights/15-uses-gold

https://www.statista.com/statistics/299609/gold-demand-by-industry-sector-share/

"Figures estimate that around 52% of the world’s total production of gold is used exclusively by the jewellery industry"

Well over half is used in industry and jewelry; the majority in fact so you are wrong on that one.

You might not need MSE'rs to buy Bitcoin but if the bitcoin price is to go up you certainly do need someone else to be buying it. Bitcoin is not a company and produces nothing; it's value cannot go up by itself, and you can only profit if someone is willing to pay a higher price than you did.

As for 'Elon' having a 'better idea of managing money'; Elon is an entrepreneur not a money manager. I would imagine there are many Tesla shareholders deeply unhappy that Elon is gambling on bitcoin with their money. Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff are money managers and they say bitcoin is a bubble: