BITCOIN

Scottex99

Cus said:

Any thoughts on why bitcoin is not currently acting as an inflation hedge?  You could describe its recent price performance as similar to high risk tech stocks.

I guess the dream at some point is a true dislocation but we’re not there yet it seems.

Maybe one day the countries/govs/central banks are doing their shenanigans, TradFi is dumping, people are scared, liquidating their positions and pouring money into gold or BTC (better gold).

Thats the sweet spot for BTC to get to a stupidly high fiat number

User232002

Parking_Eyerate said:

Don’t worry though, I see now that you haven’t put words in my mouth and I am just ranting and having a hissy fit.

Glad we agree *thumbs up*

bugbyte_2

Yet here you are, on a Bitcoin thread as a new poster, offering an opinion as to recent developments. The latest in a long line of posters that appear for a short period and disappear before they can be proven incorrect.

Why on earth do you think you have proven anything? 

You hold BTC, and therefore will make *interesting* mental gymnastics to try and show that BTC has underlying value other than sentiment, or that it is a store of wealth that guards against inflation (really? its just dropped 50%), or that it has some mystical real world use or that burning through enough electricity to run a medium sized country for no benefit is good or that if it gets to $100,000 that's somehow impressive, or that it is a hedge against stocks dropping just like Gold, or......

Other people, myself included, do not currently hold BTC but are investors and therefore could be convinced that adding BTC is a sensible move. You do make some valid points but you are a long, long way from convincing me at least on any of the above.

As for disappearing, its fun for a while but really? 179 pages of fun is just too much!

Hexane

darren232002 said:

Hexane said:

Hey kid, you were the one saying a few months ago, that BTC would go to US$100,000 within a few months.

Are you sure that no-one believed you? Because the people that made money, made it off the back of people who bought based on that nonsense you peddled.

So if no-one believed you, then good...

People buying Bitcoin 'because number go up,' or based on what someone else said are idiots just as much as people buying Gamestop, AMC or whichever emerging market stocks are currently in vogue are.

Right, but if someone came onto this forum pumping Gamestop by saying something like "Gamestop is going to $200 within the next few months" then they would get pretty short shrift. That's not what this forum is for.

Scottex99 is going to remind us that he doesn't need to pump BTC by mentioning it on this forum because that wouldn't make a blind bit of difference and he's busy working for a crypto company that's grown from 4 people to 404 people in ten minutes and so on, but that doesn't change the fact that he can be called out for pumping BTC like that on this forum just the same as someone pumping Gamestop the exact same way isn't really in the spirit of the forum.

Not that I mind ofc, it's just something fun to talk about the 99th time someone mentions "fundamentals" and "technology" and Venezuela.

darren232002 said:

And if you didn't think Bitcoin could crash to levels previously seen (*checks calendar*) 6 months ago, you havent done your DD.

Ah, but I have done my DD ... enough to know it's not an investment that suits me.

darren232002 said:

Hexane said:

Thank you for asking! A topic dear to my heart, but...

... two weeks, you say, TWO WEEKS? Well, gratifyingly, I think in the last two weeks my equities have stopped constantly going up like they did for the last few years and (on average) the last few decades. Worryingly, my equities only dipped a little in the last two weeks. Was something more dramatic supposed to happen?

Your bravado is misplaced. S&P500 down 8%. Nssdaq down 13%.

Bravado and patience are two different things. If I was seriously worried by my ISA portfolio being down less than 5% (gee I guess my fund managers must not be only buying the S&P and the Nasdaq) then that would mean I was invested way, way above my risk tolerance.

Also I have another big slice of cash that needs to go into equities at some point, so a little correction (or even a big correction) makes me happier deciding that point can be now.

As Scott mentioned, he's doing much the same with BTC and feels much the same about the 50% drop in BTC's value since the last peak, so good for him.

darren232002 said:

Also think the US equity market being like 60% of global equities might be a bigger ponzi than anything I've seen in crypto too.

Yeah that's probably why the boring people managing my boring pension funds are overweight UK value stocks. Oh well.

Hexane

darren232002 said:

And this is what Bitcoiner's constantly have to deal with, the constant shifting of 'I'll buy when...' 

This is a really telling comment. As a "bitcoiner" you feel that you "have to deal with" people who don't yet own bitcoin, saying that they'll buy bitcoin "when... (something)"

*why* do you "have to" deal with those people?

*why* is it so frustrating for you that people keep inventing these unreasonable hurdles or requirements that they demand happen before they invest in bitcoin?

why is it so urgent for you that people buy bitcoin now, not at some later time?    ... oh!

User232002

bugbyte_2 said:

You hold BTC, and therefore will make *interesting* mental gymnastics to try and show that BTC has underlying value other than sentiment

A subtle jibe suggesting that I'm stretching the facts. But, on any reasonable reading of my posts, I make arguments based on facts and rational thought. That's inconvenient to non-Bitcoiners because they are arguing from a position of emotion.

bugbyte_2 said:

or that it is a store of wealth that guards against inflation (really? its just dropped 50%)

No asset moves directly and closely in step with CPI, even the accepted inflation hedges. Its volatility has not been glossed over or hidden by anyone here arguing that BTC is a good asset. I'm more than happy to hold an asset when it drops 50% if its also done like a seventy thousand multiple over the last decade. So many logical fallacies present here.

bugbyte_2 said:

or that it has some mystical real world use 

150 million people seem to think it does have a real world use.

bugbyte_2 said:

or that burning through enough electricity to run a medium sized country for no benefit is good 

Ah. A while back, I pointed out that it would be less than 5 pages before someone repeated that Bitcoin was a climate catastrophe. It actually took less than 5 posts. Thanks.

The facts might be inconvenient to you, but the BTC network is currently running on 55% renewable energy and many of the miners have symbiotic relationships with large renewable energy providers. Meanwhile, the UK is running at about 40% renewable energy use. The Bitcoin network is a leader in both using and cultivating renewables.

bugbyte_2 said:

or that if it gets to $100,000 that's somehow impressive

Ah. Thanks again for demonstrating the narrative shift and mental gymnastics needed to justify your emotional position. Go back in time a few years and people would have laughed at you for suggesting that BTC could trade at $100k. It was a worthless ponzi of course! Now, its not impressive if it ever did, so we shouldn't use that to point out that the original idea that it was worthless was incorrect.

bugbyte_2 said:

or that it is a hedge against stocks dropping just like Gold, or......

Gold has outperformed stocks for much of the last 30 years if I remember correctly. Perhaps that says something about your denominator? Gold has of course struggled since around 2010, which is conveniently when BTC was created; an asset that on any reasonable interpretation of the metrics that make gold useful is a better gold than gold.

bugbyte_2 said:

Other people, myself included, do not currently hold BTC but are investors and therefore could be convinced that adding BTC is a sensible move. You do make some valid points but you are a long, long way from convincing me at least on any of the above.

But you've also presumably held that opinion for the last decade and you've also been wrong for the last decade because its gone vertical. Hell, at this point, even if you do think its a ponzi, the real question you should be asking yourself is if its a ponzi good enough to get the leaders of cities & countries speaking about it positively that it might still have a long way to run....

User232002

Hexane said:

Right, but if someone came onto this forum pumping Gamestop by saying something like "Gamestop is going to $200 within the next few months" then they would get pretty short shrift. That's not what this forum is for.

Oh god. Mentioning realistic near term price targets in the midst of a discussion of an assets relative merits is vastly different from saying that "DOGE is going to the moon!!112" If you want to focus on the 3 or 4 posts where hes said that and ignore all the other rational debate hes provided then you are just showing how biased you are.

I also said that BTC will get to $100k. I also said it'll get to $400k eventually.

Hexane said:

Scottex99 is going to remind us that he doesn't need to pump BTC by mentioning it on this forum because that wouldn't make a blind bit of difference and he's busy working for a crypto company that's grown from 4 people to 404 people in ten minutes and so on, but that doesn't change the fact that he can be called out for pumping BTC like that on this forum just the same as someone pumping Gamestop the exact same way isn't really in the spirit of the forum.

If he really wanted to spam this forum and pump BTC, we'd be in every thread with some poster who has just inherited $50k - $150k telling them to buy BTC because its a better choice than the idiots recommending they put it in NS&I. We would not be posting multiple hundred word essays on the machinations of QE, game theory and stock market correlations. You have an emotional opinion that BTC is full of scammers and pumpers, but your argument to our motivations or intentions doesn't hold up to logic.

You can buy market buy tens of millions of dollars of BTC right now with basically no slippage, but you seem to be suggesting that a few people from this forum can meaningfully impact (presumably raise) the BTC price. They can't. The fact that you think this is even possible speaks volumes as to your financial literacy. Again, your insinuations don't stand up to any form of rational thought. 

Hexane said:

Not that I mind ofc, it's just something fun to talk about the 99th time someone mentions "fundamentals" and "technology" and Venezuela.

Oh, you're bored here? But yet, I've seen you thanking basically every anti-Bitcoin post in this thread for the last 50 pages, and other threads, without posting a single thing. Until, of course, you wanted to come in and take your victory lap now that BTC has dropped 50% and not hit $100k - as if that somehow means you were right all along. Never mind of course that logically, even with the 50% drawdown, you'd still have been better off buying in to BTC than whatever UK stocks you have. 

Hexane said:

Ah, but I have done my DD ... enough to know it's not an investment that suits me.

Its an interesting idea to purposely opt out of the best performing asset of the last decade being based on doing DD... 

Hexane said:

Bravado and patience are two different things. If I was seriously worried by my ISA portfolio being down less than 5% (gee I guess my fund managers must not be only buying the S&P and the Nasdaq) then that would mean I was invested way, way above my risk tolerance.

Also I have another big slice of cash that needs to go into equities at some point, so a little correction (or even a big correction) makes me happier deciding that point can be now.

As Scott mentioned, he's doing much the same with BTC and feels much the same about the 50% drop in BTC's value since the last peak, so good for him.

My point is, that a 5% drawdown in equities and a 50% drawdown in BTC are basically the same thing given their respective historical volatility. So acting like you're winning because stocks are only down 5% is again just an emotional argument and not a mathematical one. Stonks are only down 5% because they only go up 10% in a year too.

Likewise, I don't check the price of BTC on most days and my life has not been meaningfully affected by the volatility. 

Hexane said:

Yeah that's probably why the boring people managing my boring pension funds are overweight UK value stocks. Oh well.

Imagine thinking that UK value stocks would outperform if the US equity market tanked. Seems a bizarre take.

The FTSE has basically been a stablecoin for the last two decades. Its not going anywhere.

Hexane said:

darren232002 said:

And this is what Bitcoiner's constantly have to deal with, the constant shifting of 'I'll buy when...' 

This is a really telling comment. As a "bitcoiner" you feel that you "have to deal with" people who don't yet own bitcoin, saying that they'll buy bitcoin "when... (something)"

*why* do you "have to" deal with those people?

*why* is it so frustrating for you that people keep inventing these unreasonable hurdles or requirements that they demand happen before they invest in bitcoin?

why is it so urgent for you that people buy bitcoin now, not at some later time?    ... oh!

Its frustrating because;

(1) Its goalpost shifting based on bad logic. Magic internet money is being bought by trillion dollar fund managers and there's still people saying its a ponzi. If I told you what BTC would become 10 years ago nobody would have believed it, which is understandable. But to ignore or trivialise its current progress is just disingenuous. When I raised this point in this thread a year ago, a poster commented that he would buy BTC when it could be used for an everyday transaction - as if that was something BTC proponents were projecting.

(2) Its far easier for people to look outward and blame others for being 'lucky' rather than introspect and admit they were wrong all along. The levels of cope when it does inevitably succeed are going to be beyond belief, ie. left wing politicians arguing for CGT on unrealised crypto profits.

(3) Its indicative of our current level of discourse where all nuance is discarded from arguments and views become increasingly polarised. Tim Cook recently said that he owns BTC personally, but that he doesn't intend to put it on Apples balance sheet because people don't buy Apple to gain exposure to BTC. That's a reasonable, nuanced take. Similarly, the idea that Bitcoin mining can be a buyer of last resort and form symbiotic partnerships with renewable energy providers that will provide long term emissions benefits is a reasonable, nuanced take. The idea that the El Salvador experiment might fail not because it is a bad idea, but because the IMF have put a lot of pressure on a small nation still dependent on fiat currencies is a nuanced take. But, in our modern world, nuance doesn't sell because people don't have the patience to listen to anything other than soundbites. That's a sad indictment of where we are. 

And to the last bit, as we keep repeating, buyers from this forum can not meaningfully impact the BTC price. 

RolandFlagg

As I've stated before crypto (But let's stick to Bitcoin as all cryptos are not created equal) is a generational trade.

Tom Lee from Fundstrat has been saying for years that Millennials are the key.

Over the next two decades they will become the biggest generation the world has ever seen.

4 in 10 of the World's population will be Millennials. The transfer for wealth to them will be massive.

And it seems they think Gold and Bonds are a waste of time and they are not too hot on stocks either.

So what will they be putting their money in? Well, it doesn't take a genius to work it out.

Anyway, James from InvestAnswers, a guy you should follow if you have an interest in crypto has come to the same conclusions.

So for those interested I have posted his video, and a recap of Tom Lee's

https://youtu.be/tDmUSW-DZvo


https://youtu.be/GGberGnxiJk

Scottex99

Right, but if someone came onto this forum pumping Gamestop by saying something like "Gamestop is going to $200 within the next few months" then they would get pretty short shrift. That's not what this forum is for.

Scottex99 is going to remind us that he doesn't need to pump BTC by mentioning it on this forum because that wouldn't make a blind bit of difference and he's busy working for a crypto company that's grown from 4 people to 404 people in ten minutes and so on, but that doesn't change the fact that he can be called out for pumping BTC like that on this forum just the same as someone pumping Gamestop the exact same way isn't really in the spirit of the forum.

Not that I mind ofc, it's just something fun to talk about the 99th time someone mentions "fundamentals" and "technology" and Venezuela.

I would remind you of it yeah, but you've covered it already.

Called out for what exactly? My stance hasn't changed on BTC or the majority of cryptos I hold since i first replied on the 2nd page or whatever of this saga.

It's going to 100k and beyond, that's my opinion. Have you ever seen me telling people they should buy and guarantee profit? Nope, of course not. I've said that it's fairly insane again IMO to not have some exposure to the fastest growing asset class of all time. Whether that is £50 or £500k, I don't care, whatever suits your financial situation as it's extremely volatile blah blah blah. I also don't care if people never hold BTC in their life, it's not my job to convince people that they are missing out, they'll figure that out themselves in a few years.

And I work in crypto, so what? I joke every day in the office that digital gold is going to zero and we'll all have to work in McDonald's next week. I don't need to shill here or anywhere for new clients, I have a backlog of 20 right now trying to get accounts, I'm having to inform them that onboarding might take weeks because there is so much demand. The details don't matter. What does matter is that I've been working professionally in the space since Feb 2018. That's like 20 years in TradFi world as the space is so hectic. I don't know it all, not even close, but I probably know more than 99% of the people on here, so I like to give my opinion, maybe it will help in some way.

I even offered a bet to you and anyone else reading that BTC would be closer to 100k than 0k at the end of 2021, a bet that I would have lost I think, nobody took me up on it. And I'm giving money to charity when we get to 100k, that's in here somewhere too.
I dont claim to know where the price is going on a daily basis, in fact I have no clue but I'm as bullish as I ever was for the future. Read the Bitcoin Standard, it's honestly really well done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09JD_ZTCKds

Here's the King Sat Stacker on UpOnly. It's interesting as he's the CEO of a public traded company, but he talks too much and it's not actually good viewing as Cobie and Ledger don't get the chance to say much. There's much better episodes but still gives some good insight.

I could probably reflect right now and say hmm I work in the industry, I have a lot of personal wealth already invested, maybe this is too risky? But who cares, it's the future, something has to change and for me, this is it. I'd rather work on something I love and be impressed by the innovation on a weekly basis than sit on the sidelines like you trying to figure out how it can possibly work because DeFi protocols dont pay dividends! I'll be worth 10m in a few years, Or I'll be worth 50k like I was before, but I honestly don't care, I'm already out of the rat race to that extent. 

Cheers

Scottex99

And shout out to Darren for his eloquence and big brain, explaining things properly