Covid crash #2 started

ProDave

I have put my money where my mouth is, and sold one of my funds to lock in it's summer gain.  But to test the "time in the market" question, I have decided to leave the other one and ride it out.  So I will have a direct comparison which was the best strategy.  I will use that experience for the next few years to decide what to do at the next wobble.

itwasntme001

ProDave said:

I have put my money where my mouth is, and sold one of my funds to lock in it's summer gain.  But to test the "time in the market" question, I have decided to leave the other one and ride it out.  So I will have a direct comparison which was the best strategy.  I will use that experience for the next few years to decide what to do at the next wobble.

Wouldn't it be more fun (and rewarding) to gamble at a casino?

Alexland

ProDave said:

I have put my money where my mouth is, and sold one of my funds to lock in it's summer gain.

Thanks I have some regular money going in to buy your investments for less than (1) they were previously worth and (2) will be worth in the distant future when I sell them. I have certainly made a small win from the deal but for you the outlook is uncertain. Might pay off but a bit of a gamble. In declining markets I remain a buyer getting more enthusiastic and shifting my asset allocation as prices get lower

NedS

Sea_Shell said:

This could turn into a perfect storm of Covid, US election and Brexit!!!

Hold onto your hats!!

I doubt they'll be much "Happy New Year" to sing about!!

You'd think, wouldn't you. Then the markets amaze me by defying all logic and surging ahead to new highs.

Personally, I'm with you on the above, but how much of that is already priced in? I'm expecting drops (or more accurately volatility), but not to the extent we saw in March as, again, I don't think any of this is totally unexpected as it was in March. But what do I know - I have an extensive history of being wrong so am not expecting to be right this time around

Alexland

NedS said:

But what do I know - I have an extensive history of being wrong so am not expecting to be right this time around

In which case you might be wrong about not getting it right this time..

quirkydeptless

NedS said:March. But what do I know - I have an extensive history of being wrong so am not expecting to be right this time around

So whatever you are about to do, just do the opposite 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y_6fZGSOQI

Shocking_Blue

bowlhead99 said:

John464 said:

thetimewill said:

Hello all, could someone please direct me to the savings and investment forum. I have arrived in an  American election/ political forum by error. Thanks

Where do you draw the line between the two when politics is driving equity and bond prices?

thetimewill said:

John464,. The title of this thread is Covid crash 2 and the opening post , nor title, do not have any mention or question whatsoever with regards American politics. Perhaps another thread is required for those wishing to discuss and give their opinions re USA politics. Regards

Do you actually have any opinions in relation to the OP's rhetorical observation "Why didn't I follow my gut feeling a week ago and put my pension funds back into cash? Probably too late now to miss all of the fall?", or are you just here to play policeman and maintain law and order on the forum?

Do you believe that the FTSE's fall of 5% from one month ago is the beginning of a "Covid crash #2" and that market movements within an index of multinational companies that are solely attributable to the unfolding pandemic can easily, and must be, segregated out from anything attributable to political events (Brexit, change of leadership of the USA etc etc) when considering investment opportunities presented?  

As an example, Trump broke the US agreement with Iran and started to sanction anyone else who didn't also sever ties with them. Newspapers report that a Biden win could help Iran shed oil-pariah status and restore its exports, which threatens to create a negative shock to oil prices from increased supply. Over recent days Biden seems to be favourite and Trump is failing to make ground on him in the major polls. BP and Shell who sell a lot of oil to global markets and make up 5-10% of the FTSE between them, fell 2-3% yesterday. How much of it was due to the Germans buying less diesel as Merkel announced new far-reaching partial lockdowns yesterday afternoon, and how much due to potential changes in oil market supply conditions, or indeed the prospects for the strength of the US dollar in which they make most of their profits (or losses)?

Slightly off topic, but as someone who's taking a naive stance by keeping an eye on BP as a potential value stock this is more useful insight. Thanks.

Sailtheworld

We had all this at Covid Crash #1. A couple of things I think maybe should have been learnt from the experience..
(1) Markets are pricing way ahead rather than last night's news at 10.
(2) Being wrong for all the right reasons is still wrong.

Sailtheworld

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

I have put my money where my mouth is, and sold one of my funds to lock in it's summer gain.

Thanks I have some regular money going in to buy your investments for less than (1) they were previously worth and (2) will be worth in the distant future when I sell them. 

I put the maximum possible contribution into my SIPP at the start of the tax year and bought VWRL. I'd love to know who sold them to me so I could send a thank you card.

Albermarle

ProDave said:

I have put my money where my mouth is, and sold one of my funds to lock in it's summer gain.  But to test the "time in the market" question, I have decided to leave the other one and ride it out.  So I will have a direct comparison which was the best strategy.  I will use that experience for the next few years to decide what to do at the next wobble.

The problem with this idea is that whichever strategy proves to be correct this time around , it will not necessarily work next time as market conditions will inevitably be different .