Covid crash #2 started

Thrugelmir

Stargunner said:

ProDave said:

msallen said:

ProDave said:
...that fall in the funds is also going to steepen.

If you know that what are you waiting for.

I wish it was that simple.  If I instruct HL to sell now, they act on the instruction tomorrow and they then get sold at close of business price tomorrow.  That's likely 2 days of big falls before I am able to sell, thus fixing my losses, so I will probably ride it out this time and buy more when i sense the next upturn is starting, which I think will be months away now.

That's why I wish I had acted on my gut feeling a week ago. 

If you invest in investment trusts, etf’s or individual company shares then you can buy and sell them immediately. 

I decided to sell all my equities on Monday 19th Oct and will sit it out in cash for now.

ETF's aren't always as liquid as people imagine. Also the spread can widen considerably. 

Steve182

Every time my portfolio reaches a new high I think of selling in case we get covid crash 2....I've resisted that temptation and to date that's been the correct thing to do. 
Without disclosing the number of zeros after the numbers, this year my portfolio has started with 7, 6, 7, 8, 8.5, 8, 9 and now 8.5. What will be next, 8 or 9...who knows?

csgohan4

Steve182 said:

Every time my portfolio reaches a new high I think of selling in case we get covid crash 2....I've resisted that temptation and to date that's been the correct thing to do. 
Without disclosing the number of zeros after the numbers, this year my portfolio has started with 7, 6, 7, 8, 8.5, 8, 9 and now 8.5. What will be next, 8 or 9...who knows?

This is one advantage of pound cost averaging in these times, compared one lump sum a year. However during a bull market pound averaging may not be so good on the flip side. 

jamei305

bowlhead99 said:

I may takes some cash out of some non-equity positions ahead of next Tuesday's elections to be able to have a go 'timing the markets' this time next week if the election has a clear winner at that point. Though with postal ballots to be counted it could take a while.  I remember the Bush/ Gore Florida recounts 20 years back taking a month to resolve (was waiting for some bets to pay out), so it may not be plain sailing if the exit polling isn't conclusive and it takes a while to open and count all the mail while wearing PPE.

Biden landslide, winning Texas etc, any Trump challenge would be laughed at, including by senior Republicans who'd rather focus on rebuilding the party sans Trump. Biden immediately announces a stimulus and coronavirus plan, and then comes good vaccine news. Markets surge and you're left wondering what to do with your cash.

bowlhead99

jamei305 said:

bowlhead99 said:

I may takes some cash out of some non-equity positions ahead of next Tuesday's elections to be able to have a go 'timing the markets' this time next week if the election has a clear winner at that point. Though with postal ballots to be counted it could take a while.  I remember the Bush/ Gore Florida recounts 20 years back taking a month to resolve (was waiting for some bets to pay out), so it may not be plain sailing if the exit polling isn't conclusive and it takes a while to open and count all the mail while wearing PPE.

 Markets surge and you're left wondering what to do with your cash.

If missed the opportunity to catch the equities rise in the industries that reacted positively to the news, I could put it back into the non-equity positions from whence it came.

csgohan4

jamei305 said:

bowlhead99 said:

I may takes some cash out of some non-equity positions ahead of next Tuesday's elections to be able to have a go 'timing the markets' this time next week if the election has a clear winner at that point. Though with postal ballots to be counted it could take a while.  I remember the Bush/ Gore Florida recounts 20 years back taking a month to resolve (was waiting for some bets to pay out), so it may not be plain sailing if the exit polling isn't conclusive and it takes a while to open and count all the mail while wearing PPE.

Biden landslide, winning Texas etc, any Trump challenge would be laughed at, including by senior Republicans who'd rather focus on rebuilding the party sans Trump. Biden immediately announces a stimulus and coronavirus plan, and then comes good vaccine news. Markets surge and you're left wondering what to do with your cash.

trouble is, vaccine deployment will take a long time, all the while business being affected for many years after, expect a long recovery and not instant by any means

[Deleted User]

John464,. The title of this thread is Covid crash 2 and the opening post , nor title, do not have any mention or question whatsoever with regards American politics. Perhaps another thread is required for those wishing to discuss and give their opinions re USA politics. Regards

dunroving

thetimewill said:

John464,. The title of this thread is Covid crash 2 and the opening post , nor title, do not have any mention or question whatsoever with regards American politics. Perhaps another thread is required for those wishing to discuss and give their opinions re USA politics. Regards

Perhaps the crash is more to do with the upcoming US election than anything to do with Covid (or is a combination of both)? That's a valid opinion, regardless of whether it falls in line with what you want people to say in response. That's the nature of discussion.

If it keeps you happy, my personal opinion is that the recent drops probably were due to bad Covid news and sentiment, but I think it's difficult to say with any certainty.

bowlhead99

John464 said:

thetimewill said:

Hello all, could someone please direct me to the savings and investment forum. I have arrived in an  American election/ political forum by error. Thanks

Where do you draw the line between the two when politics is driving equity and bond prices?

thetimewill said:

John464,. The title of this thread is Covid crash 2 and the opening post , nor title, do not have any mention or question whatsoever with regards American politics. Perhaps another thread is required for those wishing to discuss and give their opinions re USA politics. Regards

Do you actually have any opinions in relation to the OP's rhetorical observation "Why didn't I follow my gut feeling a week ago and put my pension funds back into cash? Probably too late now to miss all of the fall?", or are you just here to play policeman and maintain law and order on the forum?

Do you believe that the FTSE's fall of 5% from one month ago is the beginning of a "Covid crash #2" and that market movements within an index of multinational companies that are solely attributable to the unfolding pandemic can easily, and must be, segregated out from anything attributable to political events (Brexit, change of leadership of the USA etc etc) when considering investment opportunities presented?  

As an example, Trump broke the US agreement with Iran and started to sanction anyone else who didn't also sever ties with them. Newspapers report that a Biden win could help Iran shed oil-pariah status and restore its exports, which threatens to create a negative shock to oil prices from increased supply. Over recent days Biden seems to be favourite and Trump is failing to make ground on him in the major polls. BP and Shell who sell a lot of oil to global markets and make up 5-10% of the FTSE between them, fell 2-3% yesterday. How much of it was due to the Germans buying less diesel as Merkel announced new far-reaching partial lockdowns yesterday afternoon, and how much due to potential changes in oil market supply conditions, or indeed the prospects for the strength of the US dollar in which they make most of their profits (or losses)?

After Merkel's announcement, yesterday evening Macron took to the TV to announce that despite about two-thirds of the French population being under a 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew for the past two weeks, they were still not close to getting on top of the problem and were implementing a stricter national lockdown which will be revisited in 15 days. This morning the French CAC40 is exactly the same level as it closed yesterday while the German DAX is up about 0.4%, FTSE 100 up 0.3%, FTSE 250 up 0.5%.  Is this truly the start of 'covid crash #2' ?

Sea_Shell

This could turn into a perfect storm of Covid, US election and Brexit!!!

Hold onto your hats!!

I doubt they'll be much "Happy New Year" to sing about!!