Does anyone remember when the UK had an economy worth investing in?

bowlhead99

CreditCardChris said:

short_bread said:

Oh yay ANOTHER credit card chris nostalgic anti-UK sentiment thread. Please stop spamming a forum about saving and investing with these multiple threads about the same thing. It's boring and irrelevant.
 The long-term real returns of most global equity markets is around 4-6%.
It's the same for the UK and US.
The reason the FTSE 100 looks so bad recently is because of Brexit, before then performance was on par with global markets. That's it, mystery solved. The UK is now significantly undervalued relative to global markets and will probably have to revert to the mean soon enough, unless you believe that something has changed in the past few years that means that from now on the UK will structurally continue to underperform global markets. I don't.

The average for the S&P with dividends reinvested is 12% not 4% - 6%.
The UK with dividends reinvested I think averages around 7%.

If you look at the S&P 500 from the beginning of the year it was created (1957) to the end of 2019, and averaged all the different years' returns (simple average, adding them all up and dividing by number of years), you would get 11.7%.

However, that's not the compound annual growth rate, because if you go up 100% one year and lose 50% the next, you can't simply divide the sum (50%) by the number of years (2) and say you have a 25% average return. Because actually you have no return at all. The CAGR from beginning of '57 to end of '19  was only 10.3%.

Then if you take off the effect of inflation (because the poster to whom you're replying said 'long term real return'), you get left with CAGR of under 6.5%.

If you pushed back the data to get an even longer term result (from 1926 when a predecessor to S&P500 was created as the S&P90) the real rate would creep up to about 7% ; however, you have said elsewhere that we shouldn't look back to what was happening a hundred years ago because things are different now. And cherry-picking dates is everything, because if you picked 1 Jan 1929 instead of 1 Jan 1926, picking up a peak just before the great depression, the annual compound annual real return would again round down to 6% rather than 7%.

These values are all 'dividends reinvested'. Your idea that the long term real return of the S&P500 is 12% is demonstrably false. It would imply that $300 invested in the index in 1926 (the cost of one Model T Touring) would now buy over $12.7 million worth of goods, at 1926 prices (a fleet of over 42,000 cars). The markets have been good, but not that good.

bowlhead99

short_bread said:
I have notice a trend on yours (call it returning the favour). Every so often an apparently new and not particularly knowledgeable poster comes along with a question, and when you answer it, you receive an ingratiatingly thankful response, many of these responses are similarly worded. This appears to be unique to you. 
...

I am left with two conclusions
...
The second possibility, is that you have created all of this in order to create an impression that you are "king" of this forum. 

To allay any reader's surprise and concern, I can categorically confirm that I have never used an alternate user name to ask a question and responded to it on a different account, nor used one to 'thank' myself in words or in clicks. Perhaps the reason that many of the 'thankful' responses are similarly worded is that there are only so many alternate ways to say 'thank you for taking the time to answer, it was useful to me'. Perhaps that's why the 'thanks' button was created, to save the apparent repetition that you've observed on the few thousand threads where I gave a considered response to something.

It's quite a coincidence that the only time someone has ever suggested that I spend my time on this forum creating fake posts for the purpose of answering them myself was when user  contr_arian PM'd me in July, suggesting that MSE forums was, "a place where egomaniacs like you create false accounts to ask dumb questions that you can answer brilliantly and then thank yourself".

I'll repeat the reply I gave at the time: "I like reading and sometimes writing about investments or personal finance topics - to try to help people - but I am not creating accounts to ask dumb questions and then replying to myself. Perhaps you are guilty of projecting your own ideas there - for example when you post something and then use another account to agree with it? Other people are not doing that. Well, speaking for myself."

You (sorry, I mean, he) probably didn't see that reply because contr_arian's account was already deactivated by the time my message was sent. My comment about 'use another account to agree with it' was a reference to the practice of contr_arian and album_song 'thanking' each other's posts earlier that day (those previous user names together with respectmymonah, tchallaghan93 etc now all banned or self-deleted). 

The reason that users don't generally like others on the forum having multiple pseudonyms is that while the forum users are anonymous, we would at least like to think that we are engaging with other individual humans rather than bots, clone accounts and people who want to draw other people to one side of a debate or another by using different names to pretend that an idea has more of a following than it does. 

I notice your posting style and viewpoints shared within one day of creating your new account (anti- IFA, fan of indexing, preference for investment in the UK market, gold is not an investment, etc etc) are the same as those four closed accounts mentioned above, and though many people may hold those views it does seem quite a coincidence that your history of buying four shares of Tesla for an average of £200 between April 2018 and May 2019 and then selling one earlier this year at ~£800 and another at ~£1200 is the exact same history as tcallaghan93 had told us he had, back in July.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77418873#Comment_77418873https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77396666#Comment_77396666
yours:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77559817#Comment_77559817

While I am sure such 'forum drama' is better confined to PMs rather than a public airing of laundry, I do object to receiving expletive ridden PMs, as I did from you today and as I had previously received from one of the previous names in July. I think your contention that you are "just now rejoining this forum for the first time in a few years", is false.

Although you suggest that I am also lots of other live accounts, which according to the PM you just sent to me is not something I should "lie about or deny it because it is very, very obvious to myself and my old forum group", I do deny it; unfortunately it is difficult for me to prove a negative, so I won't attempt to do so.

barnstar2077

감사합니다   Bowlhead!

bigadaj

short_bread said:

bowlhead99 said:

short_bread said:

Oh yay ANOTHER credit card chris nostalgic anti-UK sentiment thread. Please stop spamming a forum about saving and investing with these multiple threads about the same thing. It's boring and irrelevant.

While I think a number of people would agree that Chris's threads sometimes show a lack of knowledge or understanding, some naivety and a lack of willingness to see another point of view, I don't see that you have much ground to complain that he has created 'ANOTHER' thread. He has created precisely zero threads since you registered your account, even counting this thread - it was already going several days before you registered. If you don't like the content of a forum, feel free not to join the party.

Yes, we appreciate that actually you are not a new user and have been actively posting on this forum for the last three months, simply creating a new user name to hide behind every time someone disagrees with you too strongly or calls out your poor behaviour.  So, just like the rest of us, you have seen a lot of threads and get bored of the same rants coming in from the same people.

It does seem somewhat ironic that you would persist in creating ever-newer usernames through which you advance your samey points of view while complaining at Chris for repetition. At least he is honest and unashamed of his viewpoints.

At 1.06pm today on a different Savings and Investments thread you suggested that people "keep it kind" and that you, "know there's a few in here who think being polite doesn't matter, but this is a place people come to for help, not bitching". Fifteen minutes later on the Pensions forum, you suggested that , "This is a place to ask questions about money, there is no need to be unkind. There are other sites with a less supportive atmosphere where that tone may be welcome".

All very admirable: perhaps this is the "new you" and we should embrace the positive mindset of our newest 10+posts per day forum number.

Yet eleven minutes after that, you were back over on the savings and investments board again, criticising a thread creator for "yet ANOTHER" thread on a topic with which you disagree, saying that he was a spammer and the content was "boring and irrelevant". So, the concept of keeping it kind, polite and supportive on two different sub-forums is something that has abandoned ship within the space of half an hour as your post-count grew.

Your attitude is terrible. It's childish and petty to continually create new secret identities to continue your tirade of disagreement, and is hardly likely to endear you to this online community.

Firstly, I don't know what you're talking about. Secondly, this is creepy. Thirdly, just from a glance at your profile I'm sure many posters are grateful for your comments, the effort you put in, and your level of knowledge which appears to be at least on par with my own. However, since you have rasied creating fake accounts, I have notice a trend on yours (call it returning the favour). Every so often an apparently new and not particularly knowledgeable poster comes along with a question, and when you answer it, you receive an ingratiatingly thankful response, many of these responses are similarly worded. This appears to be unique to you. Also, whenever you decide to have a go at someone, there seems to be a posse of accounts that follow you, thank your comments, and reply agreeing with you.
I am left with two conclusions. One is that you are a "king" on this forum, the way you write your responses uniquely and consistently generates simlarly worded ingratiating gratitude among those you help, and you have a small, loyal and active following.
The second possibility, is that you have created all of this in order to create an impression that you are "king" of this forum. As such it seems funny that you would criticise someone for attempting to be a small fraction as active on the forum as yourself.

You do not own this forum, it is not your playground, your behaviour is very disappointing for someone apparently so knowledgeable.

The posts thanking bowlhead are obviously not his, they are typically brief. 

coachman12

TO BOWLHEAD
I believe this poster now calling himself short_bread to be "dont_look_now" who was banned a few weeks ago and I believe that Moderators can check for those breaking the rules by checking on IP numbers, etc etc. Even if he is not, he is undoubtedly a person breaking the rules by haaving multiple accounts on record.
May I ask bowlhead, who has far more experience on these Forums than I will ever have to find a way of bringing this to Moderators' attention please. As a senior and highly thought of member of longstanding,bowlhead, do you have access to Moderators or should MSE Tine be contacted separately ?
There is some evidence of flouting of MSE rules by replies given to me by short_bread on the Covid Gold Forum where he noticeably failed to answer my question about whether he was breaking the rules by having more than one account.
We disagree sometimes on these forums, bowlhead, but I know we both know this poster who is now calling himself short_bread is an habitual "criminal" on these sites and I wonder whether with your longevity and access to MSE authorities  you can have something done about this matter before it turns as chaotic and vitriolic as the last time this character was on the site. Can you help us all please or come up with some of your famous intellectual inspiration ? Perhaps it's just as simple as using the Report button for one of short_bread's nastier posts and voicing our doubts and asking Moderators to look into whether this is another alias of an habitual source of poison on MSE. 
I do not have enough "clout" with the MSE authorities but I will do my best if you cannot come up with an answer, though I'd far rather it was you , with your standing and prestige. Any help please ?

coachman12

Just for the record , I pressed the Thank You button by accident in response to a short_bread post earlier in this thread, when I thought it was a bowlhead post. Sorry. I abhor the accusations by the fake short_bread and the evil he will bring to these Forums if allowed to remain.

Username999

coachman12 said:

How did you get around your ban from this site?

coachman12

PS to the above-----I believe someone with user-name "mollycat" might also be involved in this little conspiracy of poison as he/ she posts Thank You on some short_bread ( as he is currently calling himself) posts.

coachman12

Thank you IanManc----I had no idea and have done as you suggested. I know you have no liking for me, but I really appreciate your kind and helpful post to me----maybe we can bury the hatchet ( no, not there  , sincerley.
While posting here , may I refer to Username999's question, as far as I am allowed to by rules of MSE ( which forbid any posts about discussions with MSE's staff).  I know you to be another person who has no love for me and has probably been the one ( perhaps in conjunction with others)who has  tried to get me banned ( though I feel no malice and once again, as with IanManc, I wish we could put our differences aside). 
I think the problem I have with some posters on MSE is that, through no fault of mine, I was left a 
"very considerable" bequest in a Will from a godfather I never knew I had, in Canada----and he had created a company that built a large part of all new housing in Canada and northern USA. So my views and comments often come from the experience I have with my own wealth and it just sounds like "bragging" when all it is just represents my own financial position and my knowledge of things , such as Swiss Bank Accounts and large gold reserves and a major shares' portfolio and , which are 
alien to so many people. I apologise if I "come across" as unpleasant ( and I can indeed be unpleasant when fighting back against the verbal abuse continually hurled at me), but I definitely do not mean to do so. I can only speak from my current financial position and all I have learned from a very different world to what I had been used to as a History and Economics lecturer at college, prior to my retirement before I reached 40.
But I think I have helped some people on these Forums, especially newcomers and I have been through all the different aspects of part-time pub/bar jobs at Uni, saving for a mortgage and first house, and all the other normal things in life. But, by sheer luck  I now also know a great deal about stocks and shares, although they are managed for me at great expense ; and I know about gold and collectables and many other things. I should not have to apologise for any of that and I do not. But I do apologise if it all comes across as arrogant or brash because it is so "unusual" and because, no doubt, of my inarticulate nuances. I freely admit to being robust and fighting back at continual sniping, and I am trying to curb that----with MSE advice and support. I hope I have achieved at least some of my goal to present my opinions and advice in a more "acceptable" way ( unless I am attacked for merely daring to speak). 
I have said far too much, most of which is personal and which I had no need to explain to anyone (and which others on MSE are not "expected " to do), but I have now decided to do so to a reasonable degree, and what I HAVE said is sincere and in a spirit which I hope is seen as trying to heal a rift. 

bowlhead99

coachman12 said:

Perhaps it's just as simple as using the Report button for one of short_bread's nastier posts and voicing our doubts and asking Moderators to look into whether this is another alias of an habitual source of poison on MSE. 
I do not have enough "clout" with the MSE authorities but I will do my best if you cannot come up with an answer, though I'd far rather it was you , with your standing and prestige. Any help please ?

While I do agree that people should not use multiple accounts to make their points for the reasons mentioned above, I am not a fan of 'big government' and tend to prefer forums which are essentially self-policing. Where poor behaviour is continually called out, the other forum members can form a view about the credibility of someones views or the maturity of their behaviour (though it's not exclusively the case that the most valid viewpoints are held by those with the most mature behaviours). Running to a moderator to ask them to review something will not always achieve a fair outcome as they will typically not have sufficient time and resources to evaluate every conversation and exchange to glean a back-story and context, so may simply make a snap judgement.

As such, the only posts I have ever reported over the years are those that are clearly promoting a fraud or potentially-harmful unregulated investment, spamming links or referrals, or accounts which appear to be building post-count with malformed or badly translated comments for the purposes of later posting spam.  I haven't reported short_bread or their previous identities for sending me unsolicited messages saying "!!!! this forum", asking who the !!!! do I think I am, or asking !!!! I am talking about in my posts... as I'm thick skinned; though I expect others may have done so when receiving same. People can sometimes be discouraged and change their behaviour if you simply call them out in public. 

Calling people out on their behaviour doesn't always work though. I remember a few months ago, there was a thread about shares that might do well. You were going on about the Ocado shares you held and across a string of posts you mentioned:
"I have made a fortune over the years I have collected and added to the number of my Ocado shares."
"I continue to enjoy the very large sums that have showered down on me"
"I recounted my own success with Ocado ( I could now buy a nice house solely with the share price increases since my original purchases)"
"Bowlhead's overview of Ocado lacks the depth that I get as longstanding shareholder with access to AGM minutes, Chairman's reports, business plans etc..."

However, a few months earlier as a relatively new user you had started the Ocado are IMHO the very best online food etc supermarket thread, in which you told us that they were such a good business that "I would like shares in the company because when it really 'takes off', it will soar"; later in that thread people suggested you had missed the boat, by quoting the recent share price growth, and you replied by saying you were "amazed at the share price increase figures quoted earlier in this thread" as if you were only just finding out about it.

I added a reply to the newer thread, suggesting that you were either being disingenuous in the February thread by suggesting that while you promoted the company's services you were only a potential future shareholder and were surprised by the share price (when in fact you knew all about it because you had made hundreds of thousands of pounds from owning their business and had a vested interest), or perhaps you were being disingenuous on the new thread by saying you had lots of shares and had made very large amounts of money from it, (when only a few tens of posts earlier you had been saying you would like to have shares and expressing surprise at their price rise after being informed of it). 

You didn't like being called out, and rather than just explaining away your multiple-personality behaviour in a good-natured manner and moving on with your life, my post was reported. MSE suggested that if I have a problem with other users, I should simply report them to MSE rather than call them out.

However, I don't have such a 'problem' with other users that I would be so petty as to go running to MSE moderators to 'tell on' people who are flipping their presentation to, on the one hand, innocuously promote their own interests and on the other hand, 'reveal their cards' and make self-gratifying posts about how much money they make from the company's customers . My personal approach is to just point out the inconsistency: "call it out" and let fellow forum users form a view.

If you truly believe that if you fail to report a poster, the forum environment will "turn as chaotic and vitriolic as the last time this character was on the site" and fear "the evil he will bring to these Forums if allowed to remain", then I suppose you should do your duty and report them, but I think you are completely over-the-top. Your belief expressed on another thread today that "on this community, the nastiest posters lie in wait for 10 hours every day" is misguided.