Suggestions for a speculative punt?

Shocking_Blue

Thanks for the replies,
I guess in this case (Tesla), it would have been a case of quick profit with a bit of effort. Have been considering Tesla but unsure if the price would fall just as I went in. This 'news' sort of tipped the balance in favour (as Apodemus sort of points out). Aware of pre trading price changes, but on some cases (eg eqt) the rise continues over a number of days. So, knowing what sources of news members are looking at might, in that case, have influenced the decision to perhaps buy some.

BrockStoker

ARWR is still a strong buy IMHO, even more so after the dip in the last few trading sessions. ARWR has major catalysts coming up this year (many in the next few months/first half of 2021), and if anything momentum will keep building as it grows. I believe it could double again this year, and keep doubling for a few years potentially. My last buy was just under $72, and I'd buy more at the current price if I had significant funds available right now.

I would not call ARWR a "punt" though since it's "rock solid" in so many ways (the science, management, finances, partnerships, and protecting it's accomplishments via patents), but if anyone here is looking for something that could be a 10 (or more) bagger in a (relatively) short space of time (but IMHO is more risky than ARWR), then I think EVFM fits the bill. It's developed the first new contraceptive (a self-applied gel) in something like 20-30 years, which is special because it's non-hormonal, and many women don't like hormonal contraceptives or the currently available non-hormonal alternatives (there is a large gap in the contraceptive market). It's been approved by the FDA and the recent/first sales figures are very encouraging. I believe it will be a blockbuster, although it may take a little time for word to spread in a meaningful way, but when it does... Best of all, the share price is still very low, so it's potentially a great opportunity right now.

The other stock I like (and hold) is AMRS, although that has already made some of it's gains (over 100% in Mrs Brock's portfolio currently), but I believe it has much further to run. They make some very interesting/valuable organic molecules, and own a few brands that are just starting to take off, with at least a couple of significant catalysts due in the next few months.

Apodemus is quite correct in my experience. Sometimes stocks can take a long while to react after news. This is especially true with technical data releases (biotech is the obvious example), since before a large investor has time to react, an annalist first has to go over the data to see what the implications are, so there is often a delay, unless the data is very clear cut. So if you can understand technical data better than the majority, it can give you an advantage over other investors - I believe it has given me a slight advantage. Ark Invest touches on this point with this recent (and slightly scaremongering) article:

https://ark-invest.com/articles/market-commentary/investors-beware/

Old_Lifer

I too find  what  Apodemus  says in the final paragraph of his post is very true.   I check news of my  AIM companies before breakfast each weekday and I have often seen news which I realize is significant and have been able to top-up a the start of business before the price goes up.

adindas

Username999 said:

Shocking_Blue said:
Another example that came via a regular news feed since my last entry here is some important news on Tesla, that will likely push the share price up further Monday. 

Would you care to share this "important news" on Tesla?

As far as I am aware of. The newest catalyst is this January 3, 2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-steers-tesla-to-record-deliveries-11609608416

“Elon Musk Steers Tesla to Record Deliveries

The electric-vehicle maker’s sales soared despite a drop in global demand for new cars during the Covid-19 pandemic”

As you might be already aware of when come to EV the number of vehicles that they could deliver each year is one of the most important catalysts. This is something to do with exceeding expectation of annual revenue.

Dandytf

Thrugelmir said:

Probably a takeover target in the medium term rather than a star performer. Tekmar Group PLC (TGP) @ 60p. 

Niche business that supplies services to the global offshore energy industry. 

Hope you don't mind, thought Id'e have a bid myself.

15.00
 STOCK CODE: TGP Tekmar Group Plc

Ord GBP0.01

Limit Order

Venue of Execution: London Stock Exchange AIM (AIM

66.8

 10.02

 Commission

These shares / units have been dealt using the following account:

 11.95

 HL Fund & Share Account Settlement Date: 06/01/2021

 21.97

Think I'll prefer paying Fees separately in future Bids.
That 11.95 is included in today's portfolio view, which means I'm -54% though the stock is slightly up.
Thanks for the possible takeover info.

bowlhead99

Dandytf said:

Thrugelmir said:

Probably a takeover target in the medium term rather than a star performer. Tekmar Group PLC (TGP) @ 60p. 

Niche business that supplies services to the global offshore energy industry. 

Hope you don't mind, thought Id'e have a bid myself.

15.00
 STOCK CODE: TGP Tekmar Group Plc

Ord GBP0.01

Limit Order

Venue of Execution: London Stock Exchange AIM (AIM

66.8

 10.02

 Commission

These shares / units have been dealt using the following account:

 11.95

 HL Fund & Share Account Settlement Date: 06/01/2021

 21.97

Think I'll prefer paying Fees separately in future Bids.
That 11.95 is included in today's portfolio view, which means I'm -54% though the stock is slightly up.
Thanks for the possible takeover info.

Is this a joke?
- You bought 15 shares for about 67p each, so you made a grand total investment of about ten quid.
- To invest that tenner, you paid £11.95 of dealing fees (more than you spent on the shares themselves). So your investment is worth 54% less than the cost of acquiring it.

- If the company now doubles in value over the next few years (for example being it grows its profits significantly or someone bids a lot of money to take it over) the 15 shares would collectively be worth £20 instead of £10. Of perhaps it trebles in value so they are worth £30

- You could then sell the £30-worth of shares (paying an £11.95 dealing fee to arrange the sale) and be left with about £18 of net proceeds.

- So you would have turned your £21.97 cost of investment into £18 of net proceeds, so you would have lost about £4 - almost a fifth of your cost of investment.

Well done - you succeeded in finding a way to make an investment in something that trebled in value, and achieving a net result of losing a fifth of your money.  What kind of a nonsense way to invest is that? If the share price merely doubled instead of tripled, the gross sale proceeds before costs to sell would only be £20 instead of £30 (leaving £8 of net proceeds after the £11.95 dealing costs to sell).   So you would have lost two thirds of your original £22 investment, despite the share price doubling.

Think I'll prefer paying Fees separately in future Bids.

? Does not compute.

However you chose to pay the fee, you are going to lose a hell of a lot of money if you put yourself in a position where the shares you chose to buy need to more than treble in value for you to walk away with as much as you spent to buy them.

Either find a lower fee provider or invest £1-2,000 at a time in these 'punts' so that the transaction fees are not a huge proportion of your cost of investment. But I would not recommend 'punting' anything like £1000 on any stock market listed companies before understanding the basic maths.

msallen

Dandytf said:

Thrugelmir said:

Probably a takeover target in the medium term rather than a star performer. Tekmar Group PLC (TGP) @ 60p. 

Niche business that supplies services to the global offshore energy industry. 

Hope you don't mind, thought Id'e have a bid myself.

15.00
 STOCK CODE: TGP Tekmar Group Plc

Ord GBP0.01

Limit Order

Venue of Execution: London Stock Exchange AIM (AIM

66.8

 10.02

 Commission

These shares / units have been dealt using the following account:

 11.95

 HL Fund & Share Account Settlement Date: 06/01/2021

 21.97

Think I'll prefer paying Fees separately in future Bids.
That 11.95 is included in today's portfolio view, which means I'm -54% though the stock is slightly up.
Thanks for the possible takeover info.

I've had to read this a few times to make sure it does actually say what I think it says (I should have just scrolled down as bowlhead had already deciphered it to mean the same). Are you f***in' crazy?

bowlhead99

msallen said:
I've had to read this a few times to make sure it does actually say what I think it says (I should have just scrolled down as bowlhead had already deciphered it to mean the same). Are you f***in' crazy?

Looking at post history and their signature - unfortunately some people without much of an income or financial education will find themselves coming towards the end of a debt management plan, put £50 into a savings account as it sounds a sensible thing to do, but be disappointed that it doesn't earn much interest and then get a little bit over-enthusiastic hearing about people making money on stocks... so may think the next smart thing to do is to put a bit of money into a 'tip' about takeover news (which was just a comment that a company of that size and sector could become a takeover target within a few years), without understanding what they are doing.

Looking on the bright side, although you lose huge percentages of money to fees this way, it isn't a large absolute amount of money. The investor would have had a harsher lesson if they had put a meaningful amount of money (hundreds or thousands) into a 'punt' company and it had gone bust or crashed in value. This way, the £24 of transaction fees incurred to buy and sell a meaningless amount of shares is just something that would have been frittered away on some other form of entertainment.

Dandytf

Mser's
Notice the only underserved thanks!
p.S. enjoying my 1st non workplace dealing.
So I immediately lost a few pounds, not swayed me from future Bids.

dipsomaniac

Anyone noticed any correlation between comments on here and share price?(Obviously excluding tekmar trade above and tesla)