Suggestions for a speculative punt?

[Deleted User]

csgohan4 said:

Going for a movie and a meal afterwards transcends the potential low cost associated with doing it at home, the socializing, the nostalgia, you don't date new people by going to their house for the first time for a movie do you?. 

People do, I think the youngsters call it Netflix and Chill.. and yes I do know what it really means 
Ben and Jerry’s even brought out an Ice cream with that name, after social media analysis concluded that they sell more premium ice creams on rainy Friday evenings

csgohan4

Deleted_User said:

csgohan4 said:

Going for a movie and a meal afterwards transcends the potential low cost associated with doing it at home, the socializing, the nostalgia, you don't date new people by going to their house for the first time for a movie do you?. 

People do, I think the youngsters call it Netflix and Chill.. and yes I do know what it really means 
Ben and Jerry’s even brought out an Ice cream with that name, after social media analysis concluded that they sell more premium ice creams on rainy Friday evenings

but not all. Cinemas will be back but not like it was pre covid. Streaming will take some of their revenue. But with Covid, some people will be sick to hang out at home and some may prefer to go out post covid. Why do you think flats were out of favour in the urban areas?

Either way it's crystal ball what will happen. No one knows. CINE is a good example of why short selling is risky and  why individual stocks are risky, you can and will lose money. I'm learning all the time and I am finding the experience interesting, but not something I will probably do again. Will stick to my index trackers after this investment generally. 

But once in a while you do find a gem, IAG is doing well for me, 90% gain. 

If I do go into individual stocks in future, it will likely be established players like Tencent, Alibaba, amazon e.t.c Even TSLA still has some way to go in the long term, but is there a bubble brewing with Musk telling his own employees to find savings?

adindas

csgohan4 said:

Deleted_User said:

csgohan4 said:

Going for a movie and a meal afterwards transcends the potential low cost associated with doing it at home, the socializing, the nostalgia, you don't date new people by going to their house for the first time for a movie do you?. 

People do, I think the youngsters call it Netflix and Chill.. and yes I do know what it really means 
Ben and Jerry’s even brought out an Ice cream with that name, after social media analysis concluded that they sell more premium ice creams on rainy Friday evenings

but not all. Cinemas will be back but not like it was pre covid. Streaming will take some of their revenue. But with Covid, some people will be sick to hang out at home and some may prefer to go out post covid. Why do you think flats were out of favour in the urban areas?

Either way it's crystal ball what will happen. No one knows. CINE is a good example of why short selling is risky and  why individual stocks are risky, you can and will lose money. I'm learning all the time and I am finding the experience interesting, but not something I will probably do again. Will stick to my index trackers after this investment generally. 

But once in a while you do find a gem, IAG is doing well for me, 90% gain. 

If I do go into individual stocks in future, it will likely be established players like Tencent, Alibaba, amazon e.t.c Even TSLA still has some way to go in the long term, but is there a bubble brewing with Musk telling his own employees to find savings?

I believe, the recent price spike of Cineworld is due to the government approval of COVID-19 vaccine. Also, the hospital and healthcare centre has been told to be well prepared for the rolling over of vaccine by mid-December.

It is very common that as soon a major catalysator comes out (in this case news of COVID-19 vaccine approval) the share price will spike and there will be a great volatility on that day.  It will later be moving sideways before another breakout which on many cases when a major catalysator come.

There will be a lof of extreme speculators, as great price volatility is the day trader and short seller friends because that is what they are good at e.g. analysing the extreme price movement using their technical skills. They are either making money (or losing money). Also keep in mind that Cineworld is a penny stock so the price could easily be moved by a group of stock price manipulators.

With more people get vaccinated, the business for Cineworld could only be getting better. Also, they have done an extreme cost cutting to stay afloat such as zero hours contract. The stock price pre COVID-19 is 189.50p so there is still a lot of room to grow in a speedy phase.

But of course, there is always a risk they might not take the burden and they collapse.  But that is the risk everyone buying a stock like this will need to be aware of. But my thesis here (which is not neccesseray correct) is that if they could survive in a much extreme condition (e.g. a few months ago) they should be able to stay afloat until they start making money. Moreover, we are already close to the end of the tunnel of COVID-19 pandemic.

csgohan4

adindas said:

csgohan4 said:

Deleted_User said:

csgohan4 said:

Going for a movie and a meal afterwards transcends the potential low cost associated with doing it at home, the socializing, the nostalgia, you don't date new people by going to their house for the first time for a movie do you?. 

People do, I think the youngsters call it Netflix and Chill.. and yes I do know what it really means 
Ben and Jerry’s even brought out an Ice cream with that name, after social media analysis concluded that they sell more premium ice creams on rainy Friday evenings

but not all. Cinemas will be back but not like it was pre covid. Streaming will take some of their revenue. But with Covid, some people will be sick to hang out at home and some may prefer to go out post covid. Why do you think flats were out of favour in the urban areas?

Either way it's crystal ball what will happen. No one knows. CINE is a good example of why short selling is risky and  why individual stocks are risky, you can and will lose money. I'm learning all the time and I am finding the experience interesting, but not something I will probably do again. Will stick to my index trackers after this investment generally. 

But once in a while you do find a gem, IAG is doing well for me, 90% gain. 

If I do go into individual stocks in future, it will likely be established players like Tencent, Alibaba, amazon e.t.c Even TSLA still has some way to go in the long term, but is there a bubble brewing with Musk telling his own employees to find savings?

I believe, the recent price spike of Cineworld is due to the government approval of COVID-19 vaccine. Also, the hospital and healthcare centre has been told to be well prepared for the rolling over of vaccine by mid-December.

It is very common that as soon a major catalysator comes out (in this case news of COVID-19 vaccine approval) the share price will spike and there will be a great volatility on that day.  It will later be moving sideways before another breakout which on many cases when a major catalysator come.

There will be a lof of extreme speculators, as great price volatility is the day trader and short seller friends because that is what they are good at e.g. analysing the extreme price movement using their technical skills. They are either making money (or losing money). Also keep in mind that Cineworld is a penny stock so the price could easily be moved by a group of stock price manipulators.

With more people get vaccinated, the business for Cineworld could only be getting better. Also, they have done an extreme cost cutting to stay afloat such as zero hours contract. The stock price pre COVID-19 is 189.50p so there is still a lot of room to grow in a speedy phase.

But of course, there is always a risk they might not take the burden and they collapse.  But that is the risk everyone buying a stock like this will need to be aware of. But my thesis here (which is not neccesseray correct) is that if they could survive in a much extreme condition (e.g. a few months ago) they should be able to stay afloat until they start making money. Moreover, we are already close to the end of the tunnel of COVID-19 pandemic.

My hope is it will reduce further but above the level I bought my original batch and then will buy it again and hold for the next 2-3 years and sell close to pre covid price. 

I don't doubt this is a much more volatile stock than say IAG, RR and to a lesser extent BP/RDSB, but as mentioned it is a penny stock and the gains were too good to miss out. 

Hindsight makes one the best investor, but it seemed a good idea to cut my losses. I made mistakes but when you try to learn from them, the market doesn't behave like you would predict. The 10% increase in price the day before the WB announcement a prime example. 

Sadly there's not many penny stocks left and I got in late, I got lucky with IAG and managed to get it at 90 p a few hours before it shot up. Sadly I didn't have the funds at the time to go all in and before we knew it they shot up 40%. My second choice was CINE and managed to get a sub 50p price, but the journey with the latter is truly a roller coaster and not for the faint hearted. You don't know when to hold or cut your losses at the right time

Going to see how it goes on monday morning and buy again and then hold, hopefully at  a good price

God knows how you all manage the SPAC stocks, with pump and dump rampant

adindas

Watch out Air BNB (ABNB) IPO December 10, 2020. The fair valuation price as at September 2020 is at around US$7.92 but as usual even the institutional investor will be very hard to get it at that price.

Retail investors will be very lucky if they could get it aroud US$10.

csgohan4

adindas said:

Watch out Air BNB (ABNB) IPO December 10, 2020. The fair valuation price as at September 2020 is at around US$7.92 but as usual even the institutional investor will be very hard to get it at that price.

Retail investors will be very lucky if they could get it aroud US$10.

some investors are saying around 44-50$ starting when it debuts, will keep this on watch list

ElephantBoy57

csgohan4 said:

Hindsight makes one the best investor, but it seemed a good idea to cut my losses. I made mistakes but when you try to learn from them, the market doesn't behave like you would predict. The 10% increase in price the day before the WB announcement a prime example.

I have never sold a share, just waited for their return to favour, some never return 

I bought National Express/Stagecoach around 2000, but they went lower for around 6/7 years, but I sold when I was in profit.

adindas

csgohan4 said:

adindas said:

Watch out Air BNB (ABNB) IPO December 10, 2020. The fair valuation price as at September 2020 is at around US$7.92 but as usual even the institutional investor will be very hard to get it at that price.

Retail investors will be very lucky if they could get it aroud US$10.

some investors are saying around 44-50$ starting when it debuts, will keep this on watch list

 If memory serves well,  US$7.92 was par value as stated in SEC document at September 2020. Earlier this year it was valued at US$18bil, but as usual the valuation keep going up due to the demand. The valuation is expected to be in the region of $35bn, pricing the shares between $44 and $50 a share, as it looks to raise as much as $2.6bn.

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-nz/news-and-analysis/airbnb-ipo-finally-set-to-take-flight

I might be buying it when it is below US$40. Or it might also be opening a small position and keep cost avareging while following the price movement.

adindas

ElephantBoy57 said:ple.

I have never sold a share, just waited for their return to favour, some never return 

I bought National Express/Stagecoach around 2000, but they went lower for around 6/7 years, but I sold when I was in profit.

That is Warren Buffet Principles of Capital preservation. "Rule Number 1: Never lose money. Rule Number 2: Don't forget Rule Number 1."

But people should not blindly follow these principles when there is a clear sign that the companies is heading for bankruptcy. Better to cut loses at 50% rather than lose all of your money100%.

I  also hardly ever sell stock when they are in red. I do not mind to become a bag holder even for a longer duration. As long as you do not sell it, the lose is just a loss in a paper not an actual loss.

csgohan4

adindas said:

csgohan4 said:

adindas said:

Watch out Air BNB (ABNB) IPO December 10, 2020. The fair valuation price as at September 2020 is at around US$7.92 but as usual even the institutional investor will be very hard to get it at that price.

Retail investors will be very lucky if they could get it aroud US$10.

some investors are saying around 44-50$ starting when it debuts, will keep this on watch list

 If memory serves well,  US$7.92 was par value as stated in SEC document at September 2020. Earlier this year it was valued at US$18bil, but as usual the valuation keep going up due to the demand. The valuation is expected to be in the region of $35bn, pricing the shares between $44 and $50 a share, as it looks to raise as much as $2.6bn.

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-nz/news-and-analysis/airbnb-ipo-finally-set-to-take-flight

I might be buying it when it is below US$40. Or it might also be opening a small position and keep cost avareging while following the price movement.

Airbnb would be more stable than some Spacs, but I suspect alot of short sellers will jump in, pump and dump sadly