Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Retireby40 said:

adindas said:

The urban myth that hold you back

There a lot of myths in this MSE forum and the news a myth that let you to believe that retailer investor like you is very hard to beat the market, S&P 500, FTSE100, VLS100% equity constantly.

I was in that league before. But after learning from previous sources since a few months ago and see evidence from various sources, I do not believe that myth any longer.

These three guys Dave Hanson, Chris Camillo & Jordan McClain are inspirational, documenting their journeys and will open your eyes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa6N5DO7UfY&t=493s  What Professional Wall Street "Insiders" Don't Want You To Know

https://www.youtube.com/c/DumbMoneyLIVE/videos

I do not follow their videos regularly but after watching a few of their videos I believe these guys are genuine and not a con / scammer. There are a lot of YouTubers, people in Investing sites producing the same videos, documents and later ask you to subscribe and pay for it. These guys do not make money asking people to buy their courses, selling spots on Patreon, to lure you to buy their funds, pump and dumb the stocks etc.. Certainly, they make small money monetizing from advertising. But keep in mind there are three of them, that advert money are too small for three of them compare to what they have made from their own investment.

Its not hard to find something that will increase over a short period of time. The problem most face is knowing when to buy and when to sell. 

With all the noise coming out of NIO and all the hype it seemed a perfect opportunity to invest. Which I did. I bought around $48 and added abit more around 53-54. On average my buy is about $51. That was before NIO day which after seen it rise to $65. Now I'm in it for the long term as I believe the idea is good and that there will be more electric cars and with China pushing EVs there's potential. U didn't sell but could have easily sold at $65 as everyone knew that after NIO day and the dust settled that it would go back down again.

I really should have sold at $65 and bought back at $52-53. Then watched it rise again to around $60. That said I'm not an expert and only learning but there's lot of opportunities to make a few quid. Likewise there's plenty to make a loss. You just have to do your homework.

Each to their own, but I normally only sell the stocks I do not want to hold for a long time or the stock that have been expriencing a lot of spike on price, or when I am in the wrong side of the swing to improve my position at a lower price, so you might be get Red some days. Red is killer, damage your moral and reduce your confidence. In this case I will make sure I am getting in and out to get a lower average price.  I recently did it with Li auto, But I am now in green with quite a good of safety margin.

Keep in mind there is also a risk associated with going in and out. You might get caught someday and you will never find a better entry compared to the price when you originally sold it.

I have spent a lot of time researching NIO, and NIO is one of the stocks I am going to hold for a long time. Also, with my current average cost, it is highly unlikely it is going to be ever red again. But If it did happen in the most extreme case, my stop loss is there to prevent me making a loss.  When the NIO price dip significantly, I be will buying more adding my position, not selling.

Retireby40

adindas said:

Retireby40 said:

adindas said:

The urban myth that hold you back

There a lot of myths in this MSE forum and the news a myth that let you to believe that retailer investor like you is very hard to beat the market, S&P 500, FTSE100, VLS100% equity constantly.

I was in that league before. But after learning from previous sources since a few months ago and see evidence from various sources, I do not believe that myth any longer.

These three guys Dave Hanson, Chris Camillo & Jordan McClain are inspirational, documenting their journeys and will open your eyes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa6N5DO7UfY&t=493s  What Professional Wall Street "Insiders" Don't Want You To Know

https://www.youtube.com/c/DumbMoneyLIVE/videos

I do not follow their videos regularly but after watching a few of their videos I believe these guys are genuine and not a con / scammer. There are a lot of YouTubers, people in Investing sites producing the same videos, documents and later ask you to subscribe and pay for it. These guys do not make money asking people to buy their courses, selling spots on Patreon, to lure you to buy their funds, pump and dumb the stocks etc.. Certainly, they make small money monetizing from advertising. But keep in mind there are three of them, that advert money are too small for three of them compare to what they have made from their own investment.

Its not hard to find something that will increase over a short period of time. The problem most face is knowing when to buy and when to sell. 

With all the noise coming out of NIO and all the hype it seemed a perfect opportunity to invest. Which I did. I bought around $48 and added abit more around 53-54. On average my buy is about $51. That was before NIO day which after seen it rise to $65. Now I'm in it for the long term as I believe the idea is good and that there will be more electric cars and with China pushing EVs there's potential. U didn't sell but could have easily sold at $65 as everyone knew that after NIO day and the dust settled that it would go back down again.

I really should have sold at $65 and bought back at $52-53. Then watched it rise again to around $60. That said I'm not an expert and only learning but there's lot of opportunities to make a few quid. Likewise there's plenty to make a loss. You just have to do your homework.

Each to their own, but I normally only sell the stocks I do not want to hold for a long time or the stock that have been expriencing a lot of spike on price, or when I am in the wrong side of the swing to improve my position at a lower price, so you might be get Red some days. Red is killer, damage your moral and reduce your confidence. In this case I will make sure I am getting in and out to get a lower average price.  I recently did it with Li auto, But I am now in green with quite a good of safety margin.

Keep in mind there is also a risk associated with going in and out. You might get caught someday and you will never find a better entry compared to the price when you originally sold it.

I have spent a lot of time researching NIO, and NIO is one of the stocks I am going to hold for a long time. Also, with my current average cost, it is highly unlikely it is going to be ever red again. But If it did happen in the most extreme case, my stop loss is there to prevent me making a loss.  When the NIO price dip significantly, I be will buying more adding my position, not selling.

Yeah I'm the same im not selling. To be honest I only have 40 shares so relatively small time but happy to leave them for a while. I have no need for the money now and if it drops at some point to around $50 I'll probably dip in again.

Hopefully it could be up around $70-80 by the end of the year and see what happens after that.

adindas

Retireby40 said:

adindas said:

Retireby40 said:

adindas said:

CCIV (Churchill Capital IV)

I mentioned this stock before and the potential Merger with Lucid Motors a Luxurious EV maker. When the merger with Lucid motors is confirmed, boom it is going to the Moon.

There is already evidenced in FOMO (fear of Missing Out)

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/churchill-capital-iv-stock-price-lucid-motors-acquisition-merger-venrock-2021-2-1030078128

CCIV (Churchill Capital IV) jumps 13% amid hopes it's nearing a deal to acquire Lucid Motors

Those who enter the game earlier Tail or Head either case you still win. Merger confirmed, it will increase your profitability, merger failed you still win as you will liquidate your position with a smaller profit. Playing a SPAC near NAV in sexy industry (E.g EV/ESG, FinTech, etc), good management team with big enterprise value is the name of the game. Keep in mind in SPAC stock before the merger date you are protected by the floor price of $10.

Surely the possible merger is built into the price now no? 

I do not think so, but I might be wrong. But certainly is risky at the curent price. Lastweek volume was very big. You might want to wait until there is a pull back anf find a good entry point and sell it before the merger and reenter again later at a lower price when there is a good entry point.

Alternatively wait until the merger gone through. Normally the price will drop after the merger date due to a lof of people are taking profit

Some analysts predict Lucid Motor is one that could compete with Tesla. Although I myself think it might be only true the EV itself but not in technology. Telsa has built an ecosystem of EV.

Something happened around the 7th January. I'm assuming it was possibly the talk of a merger. It goes from around $10 to almost $40 in the space of just over a month. Thats not exactly normal and probably has the merger potential built in. If the merger happens may not increase much and if it doesn't go through the price will drop.

We did talk about CCIV a few days ago did not we. See what has happened recently. It jumps to +31.82% in just one day. This is even before the merger is confirmed. It has reached what has been predicted before $50+ (it reached $55) even before the merger is fully confirmed. When the merger is confirmed it could easily reach  $70+. People could easily predict if they could research who Lucid Motor is.

jjdc

jjdc said:

For me, and I've done weeks/months of research / reading, but dyor (I have shares invested in each apart from amigo):
'Safeish long term punt' - AMD, amazing new cpus, finally releasing a  decent GPU, their chips are in next gen consoles, unlikely Nvidia will purchase ARM, taking server market share from intel. I've had a nice 10% rise last week already, expecting it to hit $70 by xmas
'Gamble' - Amigo, if it gets back to 6p, could easily go back to 10p+ on merest whiff of good news (or it could go chebs up, will disappear), main shareholder dumping his shares at 1% a day, august will be an interesting month.
Potential life changer - Avacta, I'm hoping it to at least double over next month or two. Been trading at £1.20 -> £1.40 for last few weeks, been following these and novacyt for months - news expected imminently  

Just remembered this thread, thought I'd give an update
AMD now around the $90 mark, think it would have gone higher were it not for GPU and 5000 series CPU production issues affecting both consoles and components, even so demand will outstrip supply for the next 6 months. If they can sort out their supply chain these will get in to 3 figures this year imo.

Amigo had been up, then down, then up and back around 6-7p. I'll be surprised if the SOA is accepted, but would the FCA incur the wrath of customers if they end up with pennies in payout, instead of a potential few more pennies. Probably better off with roulette now, will either fold or get back to lending and a large uplift in SP.

Avacta - I've been out with my dates, currently around £1.80 after dropping to £1 straight after vaccine news where I added more to my portfolio. They're rumoured to be supplying affimer technology in moonshot LFT test (hence recent huge increase) being manufactured by the British consortium of companies. Exciting news regarding BAMS, AVA cancer therapies and LFT due within weeks, so great long term potential imo. This one has made me break all the golden rules on investing. Naughty.

ChequeBookGerry

Carnival PLC, the cruise liner people.  Well you did say you wanted a speculative punt.  If they stay afloat (no pun intended) then the gain will be huge. Or you could lose the lot.  Best of luck.

csgohan4

ChequeBookGerry said:

Carnival PLC, the cruise liner people.  Well you did say you wanted a speculative punt.  If they stay afloat (no pun intended) then the gain will be huge. Or you could lose the lot.  Best of luck.

Like the airline industry, much depends on the lockdown easing and vaccination status of the world and what restrictions that will bring, I.E vaccine passports e.t.c. 

However Covid investments are beyond rational reasoning, look at the CINE share price, with the sector down with distributors choosing streaming instead of cinema and yet their share price are rocketing. 

Same could be said for IAG and similar. 

Do your own research

However if I was a betting man, Airlines will recover quicker than cruise ships, stuck on the same ship with the same people for longer than a flight, people will be cautious. 

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

ChequeBookGerry said:

Carnival PLC, the cruise liner people.  Well you did say you wanted a speculative punt.  If they stay afloat (no pun intended) then the gain will be huge. Or you could lose the lot.  Best of luck.

However if I was a betting man, Airlines will recover quicker than cruise ships, stuck on the same ship with the same people for longer than a flight, people will be cautious. 

Around a third of commercial pilots are now unemployed. Going to take a long time for the industry to recover. 

YellowStarling

Stereotypically, cruise ships appeal to the older generations who are likely to have vaccine passports earlier than the rest of us so they may see the first bookings in the so-labelled 'revenge tourism'.  I'd wave my Gran off as she sets sail for her holiday, except I'd still be in my house under lockdown.

Tongue in cheek if that wasn't clear - Gran is long laid to rest bless her and I'm staying out of travel plays for the foreseeable as, even though I can see the value they appear to be at, I like Thrugelmir think there is some time yet to go before the true recovery arrives and I will be continuing to invest and trade elsewhere for the time being.

csgohan4

I agree, i foresee at least 3-5 years, but the hospitality/entertainment sector may take more time

Thrugelmir

YellowStarling said:

Stereotypically, cruise ships appeal to the older generations who are likely to have vaccine passports earlier than the rest of us so they may see the first bookings in the so-labelled 'revenge tourism'.  

Americans are big cruising fans.