Suggestions for a speculative punt?

DiggerUK

Most posters appear to be dancing around their handbags talking in generalities. The thread asks for a "speculative punt" so, come on boys 'n girls, punt..._

adindas

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

The claim that fund managers are useless because none of them jumped on Amazon or Facebook in the early days is so amusing that its not funny.
How the hell do you spot an Facebook from a Bebo, or a MySpace? (I have no idea if the later two were public, but it helps make my point that for every startup gem that goes onto great things, there are many more that fall.

Well, unless they have a crystal ball, no one could guarantee that a stock will perform well in the future.

But what people could do is to make an informed decision by looking into multiple sources.

The rule of thumb suggested by analysts focusing on growth companies is “the rule of 40 e.g the combined growth rate and profit margin should exceed 40%”.

Also, if it is in the fund managers portfolio especially the one focusing on growth companies and "most" other analysts are saying the same thing than it is probably worthy to invest time to investigate further. People who subscribe to analytical tool, or even a robo analysts might want to run that tool. Later a person could make an informed decision based on his risk attitude.

There is no pressure to catch it when they are in the bottom but people could still make a significant gain if they catch it when the stock is having a dip on their way up.

For instance, in the EV word, you might not catch Tesla when there were still US$25. But these stock is already in Cathie Woods and Ron Baron portfolio (a few to name) since the early days. These fund managers have resources and people to research before including them in their portfolio. Also this stock has been mentioned many times by analysts appearing on CNBC.

This is the approach I am personaly using and therefore suits me well. It might not be suitable to other people with different risk attitude. Other people might want to share their personal approach and we could all learn.

The best returns are often made before a stock comes to market. In the 3 years post listing many stocks simply disappoint and fail to meet the hype that surrounds the IPO.   

That is true. But what people could do is to see whether the institutional investors are investing it, whether "many" analysist have recommended it.

If it is recommended by analysts or have been bought by the institutional investors then you will add the level of confidence. These people are not going to invest if they have not done a deep research. Also they might get information which is not available in public.

The good example is Nikola/VectoIQ. If you bought it when it was still under VectoIQ, you would have made significant gain at the time they went public. I took that risk, but close my psosition with around 85% gain. There is no confidence as this stock has not been recommended by analyst and/or bought by institutional investor.

AnotherJoe

I saw a great video snip the other day. From a few years back.

There's a "famous" investment manager (who's an idiot but that another story)

Anyway, the IM gave one of the investors in his fund a 20 page detailed report of why Tesla was going to fail and why he's shorted them.

And the investor asked him "have you ever driven a Tesla?" and the answer was "no"

And the guy withdrew all his money from the fund and bought Tesla shares.

And subsequently the fund has crashed in size (as people took their money out and due to its dismal performance)

EDIT here it is

https://twitter.com/i/status/1235017273624190976

AnotherJoe

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

The claim that fund managers are useless because none of them jumped on Amazon or Facebook in the early days is so amusing that its not funny.
How the hell do you spot an Facebook from a Bebo, or a MySpace? (I have no idea if the later two were public, but it helps make my point that for every startup gem that goes onto great things, there are many more that fall.

Well, unless they have a crystal ball, no one could guarantee that a stock will perform well in the future.

But what people could do is to make an informed decision by looking into multiple sources.

The rule of thumb suggested by analysts focusing on growth companies is “the rule of 40 e.g the combined growth rate and profit margin should exceed 40%”.

Also, if it is in the fund managers portfolio especially the one focusing on growth companies and "most" other analysts are saying the same thing than it is probably worthy to invest time to investigate further. People who subscribe to analytical tool, or even a robo analysts might want to run that tool. Later a person could make an informed decision based on his risk attitude.

There is no pressure to catch it when they are in the bottom but people could still make a significant gain if they catch it when the stock is having a dip on their way up.

For instance, in the EV word, you might not catch Tesla when there were still US$25. But these stock is already in Cathie Woods and Ron Baron portfolio (a few to name) since the early days. These fund managers have resources and people to research before including them in their portfolio. Also this stock has been mentioned many times by analysts appearing on CNBC.

This is the approach I am personaly using and therefore suits me well. It might not be suitable to other people with different risk attitude. Other people might want to share their personal approach and we could all learn.

The best returns are often made before a stock comes to market. In the 3 years post listing many stocks simply disappoint and fail to meet the hype that surrounds the IPO.   

That is true. But what people could do is to see whether the institutional investors are investing it, whether "many" analysist have recommended it.

If it is recommended by analysts or have been bought by the institutional investors then you will add the level of confidence. These people are not going to invest if they have not done a deep research. Also they might get information which is not available in public.

The good example is Nikola/VectoIQ. If you bought it when it was still under VectoIQ, you would have made significant gain at the time they went public. I took that risk, but exit it at around 85% gain. There is no confidence as this stock has not been recommended by analyst and/or bought by institutional investor.

Ah, so you bought that on the greater fool theory then. Nice one.

IMO Nikola is a worse scam than Theranos

25_Years_On

DiggerUK said:

Most posters appear to be dancing around their handbags talking in generalities. The thread asks for a "speculative punt" so, come on boys 'n girls, punt..._

Spanish Angel. 2.10 Great Yarmouth.

coachman12

25_Years_On said:

DiggerUK said:

Most posters appear to be dancing around their handbags talking in generalities. The thread asks for a "speculative punt" so, come on boys 'n girls, punt..._

Spanish Angel. 2.10 Great Yarmouth.

Spanish Angel ( except there were 7 of them) is a great Willie Nelson song but it doesn't like Yarmouth .
How about Batchelor Boy at same venue at 15.40. "Glad Rags and Handbags" good by Stereophonics but better by Chris Farlowe. And BTW, we're doing "handbags " now cos most of us have given the punt a shove along the Cam already in this thread 

keyboardworrier

My punt is $NIO but that's already been discussed briefly. There's a good video here showing the quality of the car & other features you get when you buy a Nio (Nio Lifestyle, that kind of community thing is apparently big in China...) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=809QHX_Brus
Tencent have just increased their investment , and Baillie Gifford have also invested. They do have some local rivalry (Byton, Xpeng)  but as punts go, it's an interesting one IMO
**This is not investment advice!**

AnotherJoe

Well i had £5k spare in my SIPP so i just bought some Nio as well.

Now the waiting game begins.

Sally57

AnotherJoe said:

Well i had £5k spare in my SIPP so i just bought some Nio as well.

Now the waiting game begins.

Can't seem to find Nio on Fidelity or IWeb. Which platform are you using?

adindas

AnotherJoe said:

adindas said:

Thrugelmir said:

adindas said:

benbay001 said:

The claim that fund managers are useless because none of them jumped on Amazon or Facebook in the early days is so amusing that its not funny.
How the hell do you spot an Facebook from a Bebo, or a MySpace? (I have no idea if the later two were public, but it helps make my point that for every startup gem that goes onto great things, there are many more that fall.

Well, unless they have a crystal ball, no one could guarantee that a stock will perform well in the future.

But what people could do is to make an informed decision by looking into multiple sources.

The rule of thumb suggested by analysts focusing on growth companies is “the rule of 40 e.g the combined growth rate and profit margin should exceed 40%”.

Also, if it is in the fund managers portfolio especially the one focusing on growth companies and "most" other analysts are saying the same thing than it is probably worthy to invest time to investigate further. People who subscribe to analytical tool, or even a robo analysts might want to run that tool. Later a person could make an informed decision based on his risk attitude.

There is no pressure to catch it when they are in the bottom but people could still make a significant gain if they catch it when the stock is having a dip on their way up.

For instance, in the EV word, you might not catch Tesla when there were still US$25. But these stock is already in Cathie Woods and Ron Baron portfolio (a few to name) since the early days. These fund managers have resources and people to research before including them in their portfolio. Also this stock has been mentioned many times by analysts appearing on CNBC.

This is the approach I am personaly using and therefore suits me well. It might not be suitable to other people with different risk attitude. Other people might want to share their personal approach and we could all learn.

The best returns are often made before a stock comes to market. In the 3 years post listing many stocks simply disappoint and fail to meet the hype that surrounds the IPO.   

That is true. But what people could do is to see whether the institutional investors are investing it, whether "many" analysist have recommended it.

If it is recommended by analysts or have been bought by the institutional investors then you will add the level of confidence. These people are not going to invest if they have not done a deep research. Also they might get information which is not available in public.

The good example is Nikola/VectoIQ. If you bought it when it was still under VectoIQ, you would have made significant gain at the time they went public. I took that risk, but exit it at around 85% gain. There is no confidence as this stock has not been recommended by analyst and/or bought by institutional investor.

Ah, so you bought that on the greater fool theory then. Nice one.

IMO Nikola is a worse scam than Theranos

I will not hold a stock for a long term if I have not found any institutional investor and the analysts recommended it. So, this sort of stock has always been for short play taking advantage of pre IPO. It is good to bet against a stock about to go for IPO as the chance the price will rally in a short term is much higher than to drop. So, the risk/reward in many cases work toward our favour.

I unload my position with 85% gain so I could not complain. I am already aware from the beginning that Nikola has not manufactured any single vehicle. Also, building hydrogen filling stations will be very costly. 

I might be buying back this stock again if they have manufactured vehicles and have built their own filling station. The demand for zero emission trucks in the US and other parts of the world will be rising and it is only a matter before all  them are electric due to air quality regulation in the city.