Predictions: Is the stock market likely to crash again during the COVID19 recovery?

AnotherJoe

flyawaywithme said:

I'm thinking about buying some shares or investing in a tracker fund. I see the stock market has started to bounce back from early March and I'm wondering whether the consensus is this will continue to rise or we expect a few more troughs? Thoughts please: Is the FTSE100 likely to crash again during the COVID19 recovery?

Why is that relevant, since its a poor place to invest ?

Go global.

Cam93

Who knows,

Mighy go up, might go down.

You'll kick yourself if you miss the opertunity to make money, but can you afford to loose it if it does crash?

He who dares, Rodney.

Sebo027

Agree with @AnotherJoe. Go global:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWDA.L?p=SWDA.L&.tsrc=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VWRL.L?p=VWRL.L&.tsrc=fin-srch

Volatility in the stock market does seem to have decreased... I realise I am guessing but while it's possible we might see some more market volatility as a result of the initial slow down, job losses, business bankruptcies etc. I don't think many governments will implement another tough lock down. 

Certain areas and sectors will take a while to recover to preCOVID levels - predominantly the airlines and service companies, oil industry, and the global tourist industry generally but overall I would be surprised if there was another crash like that and even more surprised now if there was a weimer republic style hyper inflation and the free world as we know it ended over night. 

https://www.google.com/search?
q=stock+market+volatility+index&rlz=1C1PRFC_enAZ860AZ860&oq=stock+market+volatility+index&aqs=chrome.0.0l8.5574j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

BananaRepublic

flyawaywithme said:

I'm thinking about buying some shares or investing in a tracker fund. I see the stock market has started to bounce back from early March and I'm wondering whether the consensus is this will continue to rise or we expect a few more troughs? Thoughts please: Is the FTSE100 likely to crash again during the COVID19 recovery?

To quote the great Vicky Pollard: “No but yeah but no but yeah ...”

You are asking the wrong question. The consensus here is irrelevant because none of us have crystal balls, if you’ll excuse the expression. What you should be asking is “How should I invest my money to maximise the gain for the level of risk I am prepared to accept”.

Generally drip feeding is recommended, collective funds reduce risk, spreading over markets and sectors reduces risk, and certain markets and sectors are less volatile than others eg small companies are regarded as higher risk. And trackers insulate you from the whim of a deranged fund manager, and reduce fees, but you potentially miss out on higher growth due to managerial genius. 

NedS

ProDave said:

grumiofoundation said:

ProDave said:

Why look at a tracker?  That tracks all, the good, the bad, the ugly.

Why not look at a growth fund?  they tend to out perform the markets because if the fund managers are doing their job, they pick stocks they think will grow and avoid ones they don't.

If it was that simple wouldn't everyone do that?

A lot do.

And a lot more don't. On what basis will you select the winners? Past performance maybe??

BananaRepublic

ProDave said:

Why look at a tracker?  That tracks all, the good, the bad, the ugly.

Why not look at a growth fund?  they tend to out perform the markets because if the fund managers are doing their job, they pick stocks they think will grow and avoid ones they don't.

Most don’t. On average trackers in a given index outperform actively managed funds in that index. Actively managed funds charge more, and have nice sales pitches such as “We pick shares with future growth potential” to try and justify the higher charge. 🍾 Some are closet trackers, oooh naughty.  🤪 I have held mainly actively managed funds for 25+ years, and I’ve drunk the kool aid, but actively managed does not automatically mean better. 

BananaRepublic

NedS said:

ProDave said:

grumiofoundation said:

ProDave said:

Why look at a tracker?  That tracks all, the good, the bad, the ugly.

Why not look at a growth fund?  they tend to out perform the markets because if the fund managers are doing their job, they pick stocks they think will grow and avoid ones they don't.

If it was that simple wouldn't everyone do that?

A lot do.

And a lot more don't. On what basis will you select the winners? Past performance maybe??

It is about the only measure available to us, once we have selected an index or a sector. We can’t even be sure the manager follows her stated philosophy other than being in the stated index/sector. However, regression to the mean may ensue, whereby a fund that does well through chance subsequently performs like an average managed fund ie meh.