Predictions: Is the stock market likely to crash again during the COVID19 recovery?

flyawaywithme

I'm thinking about buying some shares or investing in a tracker fund. I see the stock market has started to bounce back from early March and I'm wondering whether the consensus is this will continue to rise or we expect a few more troughs? Thoughts please: Is the FTSE100 likely to crash again during the COVID19 recovery?

Thrugelmir

The stock markets are not the real economy. Merely a future expectation.  Then there's Brexit, the US - China spate, also the US presidential election to be considered amongst other events. Investing always has had caveats. Nothing worse than uncertainty. 

Prism

Nobody knows. It won't make much difference in the long run anyway. I wouldn't invest in a FTSE 100 tracker - think more global.

NorthernJoe

flyawaywithme said:

I see the stock market has started to bounce back from early March and I'm wondering whether the consensus is this will continue to rise or we expect a few more troughs?

The stock market is the consensus opinion. This is reflected in the price/value. 

Global markets seem to be based on us largely being over the worst of it. 

My own view (& counter to the "consensus") is that the risk of a global second wave and all the long-term economic consequences of that have not been adequately factored in. 

flyawaywithme

Prism said:

Nobody knows. It won't make much difference in the long run anyway. I wouldn't invest in a FTSE 100 tracker - think more global.

Thanks. Any you would advise looking into in particular? 

Voyager2002

flyawaywithme said:

Prism said:

Nobody knows. It won't make much difference in the long run anyway. I wouldn't invest in a FTSE 100 tracker - think more global.

Thanks. Any you would advise looking into in particular? 

Your choice. FTSE 250 has historically performed better than FTSE 100, but you might look at a global tracker rather than just investing in UK companies.

ProDave

Why look at a tracker?  That tracks all, the good, the bad, the ugly.

Why not look at a growth fund?  they tend to out perform the markets because if the fund managers are doing their job, they pick stocks they think will grow and avoid ones they don't.

grumiofoundation

ProDave said:

Why look at a tracker?  That tracks all, the good, the bad, the ugly.

Why not look at a growth fund?  they tend to out perform the markets because if the fund managers are doing their job, they pick stocks they think will grow and avoid ones they don't.

If it was that simple wouldn't everyone do that?

ProDave

grumiofoundation said:

ProDave said:

Why look at a tracker?  That tracks all, the good, the bad, the ugly.

Why not look at a growth fund?  they tend to out perform the markets because if the fund managers are doing their job, they pick stocks they think will grow and avoid ones they don't.

If it was that simple wouldn't everyone do that?

A lot do.

Sailtheworld

Just pick a growth fund and look forward to beating the markets? That's an epic inefficiency - you'd think the market would've spotted that.

stephenadarglas

I'm sorry ProDave however your comments are very dangerous to the OP who has only put up a small number of posts and is obviously unsure of his 'next steps'