Length of Shutdown - Crystal ball stuff, but just wondered what people thought?

Marvel1

I'd guess September until things calm down.

JessJ23425

Hopefully we can come in under China for total cases which is what some experts are saying, life is getting back to normal and everyone is out of quarantine there. That was 3 months roughly from first cases, through peak now down to <100 new cases a day. I guess that puts us June end / early July to regain a bit of normality.

As for markets, who knows...

Thrugelmir

With an average 11.5 day incubation period. Going to last a while yet.  Some of the people that have unfortunately died so far. Contracted the virus some weeks ago. The peak isn't expected for 2-3 weeks yet. 

Thrugelmir

Davesnave said:

PasturesNew said:

At least the rest of the year, likely a year ... because each time the figures go down people will get slack and there'll be another surge. 

That's what the government want; eventual 60% transmission spread over a period that won't overwhelm our underfunded services. I see Boris has got in early though, just in case. Wise move.

Don't believe what you read on social media. There's some ill informed people in this country who have little more to do than criticise and play politics. Who have never set foot in an ICU within a hospital. Rather than constructively helping others. 

Davesnave

Thrugelmir said:

Davesnave said:

PasturesNew said:

At least the rest of the year, likely a year ... because each time the figures go down people will get slack and there'll be another surge. 

That's what the government want; eventual 60% transmission spread over a period that won't overwhelm our underfunded services. I see Boris has got in early though, just in case. Wise move.

Don't believe what you read on social media. There's some ill informed people in this country who have little more to do than criticise and play politics. Who have never set foot in an ICU within a hospital. Rather than constructively helping others. 

Unlike my other remark, that one wasn't flippant. I know I'm old, but I seem to remember an earlier time when Mr Johnson was espousing the idea of herd immunity, or did I dream it? Nothing to do with social media anyway.

As for criticising, I worked in public service for 35 years, and while some of them weren't so bad, I never once felt we had sufficient funds. Apparently, many of those in the NHS still share that concern and a few aren't afraid to express it either.

FtbDreaming

My guess is 2-3 months lockdown followed by people gradually returning to their everyday lives and the media slowly stopping reporting the number of deaths. The deaths wont stop and the virus will still be circulating but we’ll be distracted by another big issue in order for us all to forget about corona and get back to normal. 

annetheman

My crystal ball has spoken and told me most lockdown restrictions will be lifted largely in May, around the 1st. Economic activity will restart in earnest (all measures lifted and pretty much all businesses reopened after May bank holiday, on Monday 11th May.

Then we will mostly get back used to trying to re-enter "normality" then in January 2021, huge tax increases will be announced to start the next fiscal year.

Someone close to me will have a baby and I will never own my own home. The end.

jimbog

Remarkable how the people on social media who were experts on international trade during Brexit are now qualified epidemiologists too

Thrugelmir

Davesnave said:

Thrugelmir said:

Davesnave said:

PasturesNew said:

At least the rest of the year, likely a year ... because each time the figures go down people will get slack and there'll be another surge. 

That's what the government want; eventual 60% transmission spread over a period that won't overwhelm our underfunded services. I see Boris has got in early though, just in case. Wise move.

Don't believe what you read on social media. There's some ill informed people in this country who have little more to do than criticise and play politics. Who have never set foot in an ICU within a hospital. Rather than constructively helping others. 

Unlike my other remark, that one wasn't flippant. I know I'm old, but I seem to remember an earlier time when Mr Johnson was espousing the idea of herd immunity, or did I dream it? Nothing to do with social media anyway.

As for criticising, I worked in public service for 35 years, and while some of them weren't so bad, I never once felt we had sufficient funds. Apparently, many of those in the NHS still share that concern and a few aren't afraid to express it either.

Without herd immunity the virus will simply resurface over and over. Anything said would have come with scientic and medical backing. Not some off the cuff remark. Exposed medical staff themselves are going to be carriers. Impossible to have a watertight lockdown. 
Most people would prefer to have timely routine operations. Than money spent on equipment, trained staff and facilities that sits idle for decades. 

ruperts

Can't see this initial lockdown being over within 6 weeks. Say three weeks to reach the peak from here. If cases fall off quickly then another three weeks after that. I'm guessing that cases won't fall very sharply though, and with every drop in cases people will respond by taking more risks, so we'll end up with quite a long tail. Maybe up to ten weeks. 

That's for the first wave. Hopefully by the 2nd wave we'll finally have taken notice of the rest of the world and started doing huge amounts of testing and more rigorous contact tracing, plus made more ventilators and increased critical care capacity, so that we can avoid such extreme lockdowns. But I suspect there will be at least significant restrictions, on and off for the rest of the year and beyond until whichever comes sooner of the vaccine, an effective treatment or herd immunity.