Length of Shutdown - Crystal ball stuff, but just wondered what people thought?

Alexfwalker81

Feeling somewhat battered and bruised today after our sale was halted thanks to the virus and the advice not to proceed. We've been on again, off again for days now. A real emotional rollercoaster. Tempted to throw the towel in, as we don't have to sell, but we'd like to. Perhaps I'll feel better in a few days.

I just wondered what people thought the length of the delay might be? I appreciate that even the politicians don't really know, so really just wanted to see what opinions were on this. To begin, I'd be estimating 3-6 weeks assuming the number of virus cases continues not to 'rise sharply' as expected. If that happens, I'd be amazed if they'd voluntarily stall the housing market much longer than 3-6 weeks. Obviously if the epidemic gets worse, then there's no reason to think that it won't extend beyond 12 weeks.

As I say, nobody knows, I just wondered what you all thought.

hazyjo

Perhaps a thread to come back to, but I think it'll peak late June/early July. Will take a bloody long time to get back down to even way above where we currently are. I'm rebooking a holiday from May for October and crossing fingers. And another late-June will probably also have to be rescheduled for later this year. Will also be celebrating my 50th in lockdown next month. Oh what joy...

Just to add a disclaimer, just a guess. Not looking to debate it or argue with anyone lol. I'm sure everyone has their own statistics to hand and hears what they want to hear, so I'm just putting my take out there

Alexfwalker81

Just to add a disclaimer, just a guess. Not looking to debate it or argue with anyone lol. I'm sure everyone has their own statistics to hand and hears what they want to hear, so I'm just putting my take out there

Yep, me too. Just interested in the opinions of all, as none of us can possibly know!

PasturesNew

At least the rest of the year, likely a year ... because each time the figures go down people will get slack and there'll be another surge. 

PasturesNew

Alexfwalker81 said:

Feeling somewhat battered and bruised today after our sale was halted thanks to the virus and the advice not to proceed.  

There are people out there, willing/able to buy.  
If the ideal place for me came up - and if it was empty already - I see no reason to not go ahead and buy it.  I'd be paying cash and would do my own removals from storage, so could just squeeze it past the rozzers and their "what're you doing here?" roadblocks.   

Being empty, the sellers wouldn't need to book removals..... Mine's in storage so I could load up the car over many weeks and just collect what I need after Day 1 when I'd move in with some net curtains and expanding poles I've already got in storage from my last 2-3 addresses.  

It'd be a rare match though of property, seller, buyer, house type, price, cash buyer, seller moved out. 

greatcrested

Went to the supermarket today and they were controlling how many people could go in at a time, so while we waited a bunch of us got together, shared a fag, and discussed how long the infringements to our human rights would last. Luckily one chap had a can of beer which we passed around - most people seemed to thing if it lasted more than a week there'd be a march organised like the one against the war a few years back, so you should be able to move soon after that!

numbercruncher8

I suppose it depends where you are in the country. 
I can't see why London won't end up being almost as badly as affected as some of the bad places - still lots of people on the tubes and walking around. Italy (IMO which we are trailing by about 2.5 weeks) are only just getting to the peak now, after which we should see infections drop away. But I doubt they would release the lockdown order until cases go down rapidly and then they might tag on some more days to be safe.
So in my view, we might be looking around 5 or 6 weeks, most of that time to get over the hump, but more time will be required for businesses to re-write their procedures on how to mitigate risks.
The great unknown is whether there going back to normal sees the spread starting again, in which case the lockdown will have to start again.
I do think on resumption there may be a glut of listings: those who were gonna go on during this period but chose not to, but also some forced sales due to unemployment or deaths. There also may be a possibility that more people may end up working from home more of the time which may see some shifts..... someone working in London only 2 days a week instead of 5 might not need to live that close. 

davidmcn

Realistically I think we'll all be "let out" after the peak, but while the virus is still out there (and before there's a vaccine) - will be interesting to see at what stage the authorities are willing to face the consequences of that.

Davesnave

greatcrested said:

Went to the supermarket today and they were controlling how many people could go in at a time, so while we waited a bunch of us got together, shared a fag, and discussed how long the infringements to our human rights would last. Luckily one chap had a can of beer which we passed around....

I bet it was Corona. That was about the only beer left in our supermarket last week, after the market day crowds had half-emptied the place. Fight fire with fire, eh?

KiwiCoop

Have you exchanged?  It's not a delay I'd be worried about but whether your buyer will still be there after lockdown, as all the chat then will be about how much lower house prices are. If they're still happy to proceed I'd be surprised.

Davesnave

PasturesNew said:

At least the rest of the year, likely a year ... because each time the figures go down people will get slack and there'll be another surge. 

That's what the government want; eventual 60% transmission spread over a period that won't overwhelm our underfunded services. I see Boris has got in early though, just in case. Wise move.