Tesla share price

AnotherJoe

Username999 said:

GRIDSERVE's Electric Forecourt WORLD EXCLUSIVE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoN4WCpuxHY

That is very impressive. That along with Instavolt rolling out quickly give  hope the current ad hoc and often poorly maintained charging infrastructure may be about to turn the corner. And Electric Highway is up for sale which gives the ability for a good operator to move in and fix the motorway charging network. 

pip895

There is no doubt that ICE cars are on the way out  - I have had an EV for over seven years so don't need persuading on just how good they are, but I'm not that convinced by all the hype on Tesla - It would help if there weren't so many Tesla drivers reporting niggles on the EV forums - cars having to go back to the garage for fixes multiple times for multiple different issues.  My UK built Nissan Leaf and its two predecessors have never had a single dealer/garage visit apart from annual servicing.  It would take more than a few gadgets to make up for even a single un planned visit to the dealers for me, which is why we stuck with Nissan this time round.   
Don't get me wrong its an exciting company and good car - we will probably even get one eventually but at $600/share Tesla does look a little stretched!  Its quite possible fuel cells could superseded batteries as the power source of choice, and who knows what other possibly disruptive technologies are around the corner.   

Gadfium

Thrugelmir said:

Still hasn't received the neccessary building permits. 

They were granted permissions to install the paint shop equipment last week. This is being supplied by Geico Taikashi, a world leader in designing and  installing automotive paint shops. They are applying for and receiving permits as they need. Not too different from building a house...you have to get certified by the local planning officer at key point to allow building to proceed. They'll check the foundations before the walls are permitted to go up, they'll check the walls before the roof is permitted to go on and they'll check again before final sign-off.

Peter Altmaier (Germany's Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy) is on the record telling Tesla that they will  "..have every assistance they need", so i wouldn't worry too much about progress. You'll have to find another reason for them to go bankwupt.

Gadfium

pip895 said:

There is no doubt that ICE cars are on the way out  - I have had an EV for over seven years so don't need persuading on just how good they are, but I'm not that convinced by all the hype on Tesla - It would help if there weren't so many Tesla drivers reporting niggles on the EV forums - cars having to go back to the garage for fixes multiple times for multiple different issues.  My UK built Nissan Leaf and its two predecessors have never had a single dealer/garage visit apart from annual servicing.  It would take more than a few gadgets to make up for even a single un planned visit to the dealers for me, which is why we stuck with Nissan this time round.   

There's no doubt that there niggles with the quality. These are gradually improving though....the Made In China cars are reportedly better than the Yank built cars. And the latest cars currently arriving    Expecting 100% quality is a fool's errand though. Mind you, there's very little maintenance required on Tesla EVs, so your planned maintenance visits on your Leaf would not be required.

Regarding forums.....if you made any buying decision on what you read in any user forum then you'd never buy anything. By their very nature forums attract the more fanatically minded. What they rarely have is thousands of people who are satisfied and just go about their business.

pip895 said:

  Its quite possible fuel cells could superseded batteries as the power source of choice

It's not impossible, just highly unlikely. There's far too many problems with H2 as a fuel source to make it viable. And that's without considering the massive inefficiencies in the whole fuel cell chain. It just aint going to happen.

pip895

Gadfium said:

pip895 said:

There is no doubt that ICE cars are on the way out  - I have had an EV for over seven years so don't need persuading on just how good they are, but I'm not that convinced by all the hype on Tesla - It would help if there weren't so many Tesla drivers reporting niggles on the EV forums - cars having to go back to the garage for fixes multiple times for multiple different issues.  My UK built Nissan Leaf and its two predecessors have never had a single dealer/garage visit apart from annual servicing.  It would take more than a few gadgets to make up for even a single un planned visit to the dealers for me, which is why we stuck with Nissan this time round.   

There's no doubt that there niggles with the quality. These are gradually improving though....the Made In China cars are reportedly better than the Yank built cars. And the latest cars currently arriving    Expecting 100% quality is a fool's errand though. Mind you, there's very little maintenance required on Tesla EVs, so your planned maintenance visits on your Leaf would not be required.

Regarding forums.....if you made any buying decision on what you read in any user forum then you'd never buy anything. By their very nature forums attract the more fanatically minded. What they rarely have is thousands of people who are satisfied and just go about their business.

pip895 said:

  Its quite possible fuel cells could superseded batteries as the power source of choice

It's not impossible, just highly unlikely. There's far too many problems with H2 as a fuel source to make it viable. And that's without considering the massive inefficiencies in the whole fuel cell chain. It just aint going to happen.

I can assure you EV forumites are an enthusiastic bunch and the substantial majority sing the praises of whatever EV they have including Teslas.  The Nissan Leaf also has next to nothing to service -  the same as the Tesla really.  I wouldn't write off fuel cells personally - might take a while but they are definatly in the picture.

csgohan4

The Tesla gravy train moves on, I reckon 1k $ is not too far fetched, but from 400$ pre S+P announcement, those who got in at  that point are now sitting on 50% profit, not bad. 
 

AnotherJoe

pip895 said:

 Its quite possible fuel cells could superseded batteries as the power source of choice, and who knows what other possibly disruptive technologies are around the corner.   

Its not possible at all unless you think people will pay 2x the cost for a fuel cell car (which is already sold with a massive subsidy from the manufacturer, so at a loss) and 10x the cost for hydrogen compared to electric at home or 2x on the road, AND (this is key)  "someone" will pay £20M a pop for a network of H2 refueling stations when it was hard enough to get chargers at 10% the price rolled out.

The economics simply dont work for fuel cells now, let alone when batteries are half current price

pip895 said:

and who knows what other possibly disruptive technologies are around the corner.   

We do know, nothing significant. It will have to be electric based. Fuel cell cars are electric cars, they just have a bunch of other expensive stuff in them.

Maybe there will be solid state batteries, maybe solar panels will become prevalent (hint, they wont) but whatever you can come up with, at root there will be an electric car underneath.

Gadfium

pip895 said:

 I wouldn't write off fuel cells personally - might take a while but they are definatly in the picture.

They've been "in the picture" for >30 years and yet they've never moved from the edge of the stage to the centre. In the meantime battery technology and management systems have improved enormously and have dropped massively in price. in the meantime, all of the challenges of creating, transporting, storing hydrogen as well as the massive inefficiencies (compared to batteries) remain.

https://youtu.be/0xD9qEdHFIE?t=25

pip895

AnotherJoe 

We do know, nothing significant. It will have to be electric based. Fuel cell cars are electric cars, they just have a bunch of other expensive stuff in them.

Maybe there will be solid state batteries, maybe solar panels will become prevalent (hint, they wont) but whatever you can come up with, at root there will be an electric car underneath.

Not arguing with this it’s just if Tesla isn’t dominant in whatever pans out it’s shares have a long way to fall.  Not sure what you mean with solar panels- useful for charging batteries or generating h2 for that matter but no one is suggesting you directly run a car from solar are they😄

AnotherJoe

Gadfium said:

pip895 said:

 I wouldn't write off fuel cells personally - might take a while but they are definatly in the picture.

They've been "in the picture" for >30 years and yet they've never moved from the edge of the stage to the centre. In the meantime battery technology and management systems have improved enormously and have dropped massively in price. in the meantime, all of the challenges of creating, transporting, storing hydrogen as well as the massive inefficiencies (compared to batteries) remain.

https://youtu.be/0xD9qEdHFIE?t=25

LOL. Yes, one aspect of the recent Nikola / GM non-announcement that Nikola woudl buy FC's from GM (in the unlikely event Nikola are around in 4 years to do that) was that GM hyped up how they had "been working on fuel cells for 50 years" as if that gave them some credibility, whereas it tells you everything you need to know about FC's.

If you think FC's have a future in cars* you dont understand the technology, the physics and the economics. These drive whats possible and what it costs. And FC loses to EV on every count for cars*. Or you've been suckered in by manufacturers FUD using them as a delaying tactic, eg "dont buy an EV now because it will be obsoleted by a FC car in 5 years time" . Or Toyota doing the same first with solid state then with their "self charging" lie. 

* juries out on trains, planes and maybe big automobiles aka trucks. But likely not the latter, looks like EVs will win there also.