Tesla share price

AnotherJoe

snooloui said:

Tesla down 6.99% today. It's the beginning of the end.

Just shows how many idiots there are in the stock market. An unconnected and pretty much successful* rocket test causes the shares of a different company to drop, whilst in the next ten days index funds must  buy 120million shares.

BTW there is likely to be a second launch of Starship this month or early next. This aint NASA where anything unexpected means a 2 year delay.

 

* the slight boom at the end was incidental to the test itself

AnotherJoe

lardellion said:

Cus said:

lardellion said:

AnotherJoe said:

lardellion said:

Username999 said:

YellowStarling said:

Michael Burry (of May 2005-April 2007 subprime mortgage short fame) has allegedly opened a short position against Tesla in recent days.

I like Michael Burry, but he's made a mistake with Tesla.
Shorters have lost an estimated $35 Billion on Tesla.

Looks like a lot of things will have to work out really well in the future for Tesla to justify a valuation of $616 billion. I'm not shorting, but I also don't want to own any Tesla at this price. I don't see how a bull case that makes Tesla a good buy at this valuation can be likely to work out.

Ark's 12 different financial scenarios makes them still severely undervalued (these are pre split numbers so divide by 5).

Currently price is about at "high functioning EV company".

These numbers are from 2018, they aren't someone who just jumped on a bandwagon. Most people at the time of course jumped all over them even for the $750 valuation.

Yeah, so Tesla's stock price is at the "The High Functioning EV Company" tier's 2024 price target, but the year is still 2020. Tesla hasn't reached the optimistic production/sales numbers ARKInvest plugged into a model to justify this 2024 price target yet. I would say that supports a view that Tesla is overpriced right now.

Personally I would take a big pinch of salt any research provided by a firm that takes clients money to invest, and takes fees from those clients based on performance of those companies in its research.
If the price plummets, and money is then pulled from their hedge fund, they will just re badge themselves and do it again with other clients money. 

Thanks, I agree. ARKInvest look like geniuses due to their recent performance, but you could chalk much of that up to being in the right place at the right time. Their research and highball predictions double up as marketing material for them.

I do take the default numbers plugged into their valuation model with a grain of salt. I think they are optimistic, having looked at https://github.com/ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model - but even if you accept them, Tesla's stock price appears to be running above/ahead of their model.

I think being in the right place at the right time, if you got there deliberately, counts as being a genius.

AnotherJoe

snooloui said:

Tesla down 6.99% today. It's the beginning of the end.

LOL that didnt last long. So, a total of more than 10% up today from the initial fall.

And we've not see the index buying yet.

snooloui

AnotherJoe said:

snooloui said:

Tesla down 6.99% today. It's the beginning of the end.

LOL that didnt last long. So, a total of more than 10% up today from the initial fall.

And we've not see the index buying yet.

That's just the suckers buying back in, you haven't seen anything yet!

Thrugelmir

snooloui said:

AnotherJoe said:

snooloui said:

Tesla down 6.99% today. It's the beginning of the end.

LOL that didnt last long. So, a total of more than 10% up today from the initial fall.

And we've not see the index buying yet.

That's just the suckers buying back in, you haven't seen anything yet!

Dumb money knows no bounds. Smart money is progressively reducing exposure. 

Thrugelmir

Username999 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Smart money is progressively reducing exposure. 

Do you have a reference for that statement?

Just from activity I've read about.  Takes two to trade. For passives to buy the stock someone has to sell. 

AnotherJoe

Maybe it'll be J P Morgan telling their "smart" clients to sell ......... whilst they buy $4Bn worth of shares for themselves.

Gadfium

Thrugelmir said:

Username999 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Smart money is progressively reducing exposure. 

Do you have a reference for that statement?

Just from activity I've read about.  Takes two to trade. For passives to buy the stock someone has to sell. 

Maybe broaden your reading from #TSLAQ?

Username999 said:

Giga Newcastle !
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/jobs-blyth-employment-northumberland-cars-19435348
 

Interesting (unless you're Welsh!) but nothing to do with Tesla.

Thrugelmir

No need to broaden my horizon.  Been around the investment scene too many decades now.  Investors have never changed. The wheel regularly gets reinvented. 

Shocking_Blue

For a while I've been thinking of selling some of my share in L&G Global Tech Index and then using that to buy into SMT (SMT has holdings that aren't in L&G - and vice versa - and together the two seem to cover some important tech bases, so to speak). The Tesla exposure of SMT is putting me off a little, though (perhaps it wouldn't if the value of Tesla stock had not had such a recent and rapid rise). I guess there will be differing opinions on this, and perhaps the 14% or so exposure to Tesla is not a major issue. Just wondered on any thoughts.
Thanks