Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

coastline

Username999 said:

Thrugelmir said:

US Banks kick off the quarterly earnings reporting this week. First signs of the damage being caused to corporate profitability. 

Earnings calendar ...
https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar#date=04/14/2020&name=&countries=&eventtypes=103,99&tab=L

Company updates will probably play their part now and plenty of them. I have this one bookmarked. Some gaps to fill on that Dow chart. Who knows.?
https://twitter.com/FactSet

BananaRepublic

Just_a_person said:

BananaRepublic said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I think its a fair assessment of where we are at. You can't just give away money without debasing the currency eventually leading to inflation. As for the market, with enough stimulus anything can stay up in numeric terms but in value it will still have fallen due to the effective currency devaluation from the stimulus. We either go down or we have excess stimulus and neither will be good.

We did exactly that 10 years ago and it didn’t cause inflation. It did though mean that we had huge debts, which seriously impacted our wellbeing for many years after. 

10 year ago it was loans to the banks. This time they are printing a lot of money most of which I cannot ever see being repaid.

Indeed much of it will not be repaid. But if you don’t pay 80% of a worker’s salary, that worker becomes unemployed and you end up paying unemployment benefit and losing taxes associated with the job and even the company if it goes bust. They must be praying that this works. 

Some countries are loosening restrictions on distancing, and if we can do that it will reduce the impact on the economy. But the stock market seems rather exuberant given the current circumstances. How long can companies continue without an income stream? 

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

Just_a_person said:

BananaRepublic said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I think its a fair assessment of where we are at. You can't just give away money without debasing the currency eventually leading to inflation. As for the market, with enough stimulus anything can stay up in numeric terms but in value it will still have fallen due to the effective currency devaluation from the stimulus. We either go down or we have excess stimulus and neither will be good.

We did exactly that 10 years ago and it didn’t cause inflation. It did though mean that we had huge debts, which seriously impacted our wellbeing for many years after. 

10 year ago it was loans to the banks. This time they are printing a lot of money most of which I cannot ever see being repaid.

Some countries are loosening restrictions on distancing, and if we can do that it will reduce the impact on the economy. 

Only if it works. Wuhan was in lock down for far longer. The French are being cautious too. The virus could easily explode again. Appears the South Koreans have encountered issues with testing. Which supports the UK policy that antibody tests as yet aren't accurate enough to warrant being rolled out. 

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

BananaRepublic said:

Just_a_person said:

BananaRepublic said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I think its a fair assessment of where we are at. You can't just give away money without debasing the currency eventually leading to inflation. As for the market, with enough stimulus anything can stay up in numeric terms but in value it will still have fallen due to the effective currency devaluation from the stimulus. We either go down or we have excess stimulus and neither will be good.

We did exactly that 10 years ago and it didn’t cause inflation. It did though mean that we had huge debts, which seriously impacted our wellbeing for many years after. 

10 year ago it was loans to the banks. This time they are printing a lot of money most of which I cannot ever see being repaid.

Some countries are loosening restrictions on distancing, and if we can do that it will reduce the impact on the economy. 

Only if it works. Wuhan was in lock down for far longer. The French are being cautious too. The virus could easily explode again. Appears the South Koreans have encountered issues with testing. Which supports the UK policy that antibody tests as yet aren't accurate enough to warrant being rolled out. 

The tests in question are qPCR test, not antibody tests.  qPCR tests are highly accurate, but there's always a smalll error rate, which is often due to operator error.  A swab may not be taken correctly (leading to false negative), or samples can become cross-contaminated (causing a false positive).  It's also possible virus levels fall temporarily below the detection threshold. 

The protocol being followed in SK was that two negative tests 24 hours apart are required before discharge.  A WHO standard no doubt being adopted in the UK too.  This relates only to people who tested negative on one test, then positive on another.  It involved 91 patients, who were not discharged.  

Regardless, one only has to look at the progression of the disease in the two countries to get an idea of which one has come up with the best strategy for the controlling the disease.

BananaRepublic

Thrugelmir said:

Only if it works. Wuhan was in lock down for far longer. The French are being cautious too. The virus could easily explode again. Appears the South Koreans have encountered issues with testing. Which supports the UK policy that antibody tests as yet aren't accurate enough to warrant being rolled out. 

Define what you mean by works. Austria is relaxing the rules to allow garden centres and small shops to open with distancing enforced. No doubt we will be watching closely. If current rules work, there’s no reason they can’t be extended to most other shops with obvious exceptions such as hairdressers and dentists. I suspect we will relax restrictions in a similar manner, maybe even allowing cafes and restaurants to open but with family members only at each table. It does look as if most people have understood why distancing is needed. 

If we keep the lockdown as is for many months, countless companies will go bust, and the consequent economic hit will cost lives due to lack of money for the NHS and police, and poverty related illnesses not to mention the hit on the life outcomes of today’s children. 

There is also the issue of how many of those who have died would have died within a month or two anyway. In other words, in some cases the virus merely accelerated death in someone with serious health issues. The main problem is that these deaths inundate the NHS, causing lots more deaths of people who would have survived eg heart attack victims who do not get into an ICU because they are full. And yes I’m well aware the virus can and does kill the young albeit in much smaller numbers. 

By the looks of things this virus may become seasonal, and kill people each year, requiring regular vaccine shots if it behaves like flu rather than measles (which requires one vaccination shot). 

As a side thought, this is at least the third virus that has come out of China due to lax livestock regulations. I wonder if the world will collectively sue or punish China? 

Sailtheworld

I never sold anything due to Coronavirus and my plan was always to top up my SIPP at the start of the new tax year and buy VWRL. That cash arrived last week but I struggled to get a quote because of every man and his dog trying to trade their way to riches. Managed to make the purchase today.

Job done for another year. 

schiff

Motley Fool apparently suggested W H Smith, Wetherspoons and National Express on 19/3 as possible early survivors - up 113%, 85% and 159% today. Lucky, or well judged, for some!

Thrugelmir

schiff said:

Motley Fool apparently suggested W H Smith, Wetherspoons and National Express on 19/3 as possible early survivors - up 113%, 85% and 159% today. Lucky, or well judged, for some!

Opportune time to take bank some profits. 

Thrugelmir

BananaRepublic said:

Thrugelmir said:

Only if it works. Wuhan was in lock down for far longer. The French are being cautious too. The virus could easily explode again. Appears the South Koreans have encountered issues with testing. Which supports the UK policy that antibody tests as yet aren't accurate enough to warrant being rolled out. 

Define what you mean by works. 

The risk has to be controllable. A return to life as we knew it maybe some time away. Many assume that a switch is simply going to be flicked and the lights will come back on. 

kinger101

schiff said:

Motley Fool apparently suggested W H Smith, Wetherspoons and National Express on 19/3 as possible early survivors - up 113%, 85% and 159% today. Lucky, or well judged, for some!

Possibly just luck.  Motley have have a series of articles they churn out about which FTSE 250 companies should be bought.  I think they're written by a bot that selects them at random.  I don't think they've picked "early survivors".  Just a series of companies that were most heavily hit.  Most things are up since 19th March.  These companies more so as they took a larger hit.