We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum... Read More »
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?
Options
Comments
-
Is a 3% fall a plunge? It’s not wonderful, but in terms of the volatility we’ve seen over the past weeks, that’s just business as usal.
With a 35% drop in the UK economy being talked about yesterday, and was expecting worse.0 -
Good luck with any Technical Analysis.coastline said:
Not a very good day so far with bad news from the USA. Maybe a trip lower now.? Those doji spinning tops ?Username999 said:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917245/ftse-100-takes-another-plunge-us-crude-now-below-us20-per-barrel-917245.html
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
From yesterday one of my favourite indicators ,Slow Stoch , on the top of the guideline and curling down. Lets see ? Not the best of charts but the ideas there.
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=INDU&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
I spent a few years trying to get some form of consistency and gave up over 10 years ago
Best pattern out there is a true Head & Shoulders but you need the patience of a saint.
Steer clear of Elliot-Wave too!!
One person caring about another represents life's greatest value.1 -
Yes it looks like it's, give or take, an accumulation version of VWRL. I hold VWRL with Youinvest and noticed they've added a crafty FX charge of 0.5% to dividend payments so was thinking of looking in more detail at VWRP given the charges seem to be identical.bargainhunter888 said:
sorry to hijack this postSailtheworld said:
Well quite. I've decided I don't have an investment edge and am happy to accept that today's price is the correct price. Of course I wish I had bought VWRL ten days ago when prices were somewhat lower but if wishes were horses beggars would ride (and I didn't have the cash).Thrugelmir said:
All three are recovery punts on the travel and leisure industry. The tip was made some weeks ago. Be interesting to see what the writer thinks now. WH Smith has since already diluted small shareholders with a £166m share placing to shore up it's balance sheet.Sailtheworld said:
Only if they made those profits by pure luck and recognised this was the case and even then they could, instead, decide to choose a lower risk investment. If someone has the stockpicking skill to be able to pick W H Smith, Wetherspoons & National Express why the hell would they choose to gaze upon the profit earning 0.1% interest in a bank account?Thrugelmir said:
Opportune time to take bank some profits.schiff said:Motley Fool apparently suggested W H Smith, Wetherspoons and National Express on 19/3 as possible early survivors - up 113%, 85% and 159% today. Lucky, or well judged, for some!
I've never really understood why banking profits is seen as sage advice unless it's part of a derisking exercise or the cash is actually needed.
PS. Share market makers follow the tip sheets as well. You'll be paying these higher prices in purchasing VWRL.
My next share purchase will be at the start of the 2021 tax year apart from reinvesting dividends. I'll still be dipping here for an occasional dose of success bias in action though.
i was looking at an all world tracker is VWRP the accumulation version of VWRL? also VWRP was only launched 9 months ago, is there any risk involved with a newer etf?
Thanks
I can't see why there would be any additional risk with a newer ETF other than there's no historical data to show the tracking accuracy but as it's with Vanguard it wouldn't be on my worry list.0 -
CLOSING NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY:FTSE 100 @ 5,598 - DOWN 27% FROM PEAKFTSE 250 @ 15,348 - DOWN 31% FROM PEAKFTSE ALL SHARE @ 3,087 - DOWN 27% FROM PEAKDOW JONES @ 23,504 - DOWN 20% FROM PEAKNASDAQ @ 8,393 - DOWN 15% FROM PEAK
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...4 -
At the risk of turning this thread into a broad discussion on the mertis of TA, I have some feedback that may be of benefit to anyone trying to forecast what is going to happen to stock market indexes. I do have some experience of TA (having living off the proceeds for over 10 years until I retired at 55). The key points I would mention are:Username999 said:
Good luck with any Technical Analysis.coastline said:
Not a very good day so far with bad news from the USA. Maybe a trip lower now.? Those doji spinning tops ?Username999 said:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917245/ftse-100-takes-another-plunge-us-crude-now-below-us20-per-barrel-917245.html
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
From yesterday one of my favourite indicators ,Slow Stoch , on the top of the guideline and curling down. Lets see ? Not the best of charts but the ideas there.
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=INDU&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
I spent a few years trying to get some form of consistency and gave up over 10 years ago
Best pattern out there is a true Head & Shoulders but you need the patience of a saint.
Steer clear of Elliot-Wave too!!
a) No signal is ever close to 100% accurate (typically I was happy to achieve 60% accuracy)
b) The hold period depends on the monitoring timescale eg if I am looking at a daily candlestick chart I would expect to hold shares bought for around 20 days before selling. Likewise for a 1 weekly chart, look to hold for around 20 weeks.
c) Knowing when to sell is more important than when to buy, especially for the 40% of shares which have a false positive buy signal.
TA could be used to buy 10 shares, expect 6 of them to make 7% gains over 1 month and 4 of them to make 5% loss. Overall average gain over the month around 2%.
What I would not do is to use TA to make the decision on one individual share (or index) and bet the farm on it. Also I would not use a TA signal from a daily chart to inform me on whether to hold the share for many months (or wosre years).
To give a specific example, the FTSE100 gave a potential buy signal on 24/3 at a price of 5331. It then gave a sell signal yesterday at 5773. It would have been possible (but risky) to have run this trade for a profit of 4.5% However, it would have been crazy to have used this indicator on the 24/3 to suggest now is the time to invest into the FTSE and hold for the next few years. TA is not the right tool to use for that type of decision. If you are looking to buy for the long term, now is always the right time to buy.6 -
jamesmorgan said:
At the risk of turning this thread into a broad discussion on the mertis of TA, I have some feedback that may be of benefit to anyone trying to forecast what is going to happen to stock market indexes. I do have some experience of TA (having living off the proceeds for over 10 years until I retired at 55). The key points I would mention are:Username999 said:
Good luck with any Technical Analysis.coastline said:
Not a very good day so far with bad news from the USA. Maybe a trip lower now.? Those doji spinning tops ?Username999 said:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917245/ftse-100-takes-another-plunge-us-crude-now-below-us20-per-barrel-917245.html
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
From yesterday one of my favourite indicators ,Slow Stoch , on the top of the guideline and curling down. Lets see ? Not the best of charts but the ideas there.
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=INDU&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
I spent a few years trying to get some form of consistency and gave up over 10 years ago
Best pattern out there is a true Head & Shoulders but you need the patience of a saint.
Steer clear of Elliot-Wave too!!
a) No signal is ever close to 100% accurate (typically I was happy to achieve 60% accuracy)
b) The hold period depends on the monitoring timescale eg if I am looking at a daily candlestick chart I would expect to hold shares bought for around 20 days before selling. Likewise for a 1 weekly chart, look to hold for around 20 weeks.
c) Knowing when to sell is more important than when to buy, especially for the 40% of shares which have a false positive buy signal.
TA could be used to buy 10 shares, expect 6 of them to make 7% gains over 1 month and 4 of them to make 5% loss. Overall average gain over the month around 2%.
What I would not do is to use TA to make the decision on one individual share (or index) and bet the farm on it. Also I would not use a TA signal from a daily chart to inform me on whether to hold the share for many months (or wosre years).
To give a specific example, the FTSE100 gave a potential buy signal on 24/3 at a price of 5331. It then gave a sell signal yesterday at 5773. It would have been possible (but risky) to have run this trade for a profit of 4.5% However, it would have been crazy to have used this indicator on the 24/3 to suggest now is the time to invest into the FTSE and hold for the next few years. TA is not the right tool to use for that type of decision. If you are looking to buy for the long term, now is always the right time to buy.
No offence intended to you but when ever someone makes claims like "having living off the proceeds for over 10 years until I retired at 55" and "Overall average gain over the month around 2%" alarm bells start to ring.
What is it you are trying to sell, some sort of subscription down the line usually.
I have followed many TA experts over the years, some had real time trades on-line, like the old www.SPX.com and Marc Rivalland, they all failed sooner or later.
I'd like to believe but sadly they all turn out to be fake.
IMHO.
PS, Care to publish ALL your trades BEFORE hand, for FREE, I didn't think so.
Good luck.
PPS. If your name is "DAVID" from thailand, please stop emailing me!!!!One person caring about another represents life's greatest value.3 -
No problem and no offence taken. I knew posting my response would run the danger of turning this thread into a slanging match of relative merits of TA. The only point in my post was to highlight the risks of using TA as an entry point into a LTBH strategy for a single market index.. That advice was given BEFORE hand and for FREE, but that is all you are going to get from me!Username999 said:jamesmorgan said:
At the risk of turning this thread into a broad discussion on the mertis of TA, I have some feedback that may be of benefit to anyone trying to forecast what is going to happen to stock market indexes. I do have some experience of TA (having living off the proceeds for over 10 years until I retired at 55). The key points I would mention are:Username999 said:
Good luck with any Technical Analysis.coastline said:
Not a very good day so far with bad news from the USA. Maybe a trip lower now.? Those doji spinning tops ?Username999 said:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917245/ftse-100-takes-another-plunge-us-crude-now-below-us20-per-barrel-917245.html
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
From yesterday one of my favourite indicators ,Slow Stoch , on the top of the guideline and curling down. Lets see ? Not the best of charts but the ideas there.
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=INDU&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/charts/?epic=UKX&compareTo1=&compareTo2=&period=YEAR1&type=2&indicator[]=SlowSTO&draw=
I spent a few years trying to get some form of consistency and gave up over 10 years ago
Best pattern out there is a true Head & Shoulders but you need the patience of a saint.
Steer clear of Elliot-Wave too!!
a) No signal is ever close to 100% accurate (typically I was happy to achieve 60% accuracy)
b) The hold period depends on the monitoring timescale eg if I am looking at a daily candlestick chart I would expect to hold shares bought for around 20 days before selling. Likewise for a 1 weekly chart, look to hold for around 20 weeks.
c) Knowing when to sell is more important than when to buy, especially for the 40% of shares which have a false positive buy signal.
TA could be used to buy 10 shares, expect 6 of them to make 7% gains over 1 month and 4 of them to make 5% loss. Overall average gain over the month around 2%.
What I would not do is to use TA to make the decision on one individual share (or index) and bet the farm on it. Also I would not use a TA signal from a daily chart to inform me on whether to hold the share for many months (or wosre years).
To give a specific example, the FTSE100 gave a potential buy signal on 24/3 at a price of 5331. It then gave a sell signal yesterday at 5773. It would have been possible (but risky) to have run this trade for a profit of 4.5% However, it would have been crazy to have used this indicator on the 24/3 to suggest now is the time to invest into the FTSE and hold for the next few years. TA is not the right tool to use for that type of decision. If you are looking to buy for the long term, now is always the right time to buy.
No offence intended to you but when ever someone makes claims like "having living off the proceeds for over 10 years until I retired at 55" and "Overall average gain over the month around 2%" alarm bells start to ring.
What is it you are trying to sell, some sort of subscription down the line usually.
I have followed many TA experts over the years, some had real time trades on-line, like the old www.SPX.com and Marc Rivalland, they all failed sooner or later.
I'd like to believe but sadly they all turn out to be fake.
IMHO.
PS, Care to publish ALL your trades BEFORE hand, for FREE, I didn't think so.
Good luck.
PPS. If your name is "DAVID" from thailand, please stop emailing me!!!!
Adios2 -
CLOSING NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY:FTSE 100 @ 5,628 - DOWN 27% FROM PEAKFTSE 250 @ 15,379 - DOWN 30% FROM PEAKFTSE ALL SHARE @ 3,102 - DOWN 27% FROM PEAKDOW JONES @ 23,538 - DOWN 20% FROM PEAKNASDAQ @ 8,532 - DOWN 13% FROM PEAK
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...1 -
Yawn... how do I stop/block thread notifications?
'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB-1 -
Profile > notifications settingsJohnRo said:Yawn... how do I stop/block thread notifications?
1
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 351.1K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 453.6K Spending & Discounts
- 244.1K Work, Benefits & Business
- 599K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177K Life & Family
- 257.4K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.1K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards