Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

coastline · 10 April 2020 at 9:12AM

worldtraveller said:

CLOSING NUMBERS FROM YESTERDAY:
FTSE 100 @ 5,843 - DOWN 24% FROM PEAK
FTSE 250 @ 16,408 - DOWN 26% FROM PEAK
FTSE ALL SHARE @ 3,233 - DOWN 24% FROM PEAK
DOW JONES @ 23,719 - DOWN 20% FROM PEAK
NASDAQ @ 8,154 - DOWN 17% FROM PEAK

Just for a bit of balance FTSE 100 up 18% from the low. DOW JONES up 25% from the low. Early days .

Alexland · 10 April 2020 at 10:00AM

coastline said:
Just for a bit of balance FTSE 100 up 18% from the low. DOW JONES up 25% from the low.

Yup our strategy of tilting into the risk, transfering cash accounts into S&S and continuing with regular contributions has made progress in covering where we saw valuations drop.

I am not that worried about the upcoming earnings announcements as everyone expects they will be impacted and take time to rebuild but over the long term S&S is still likely to be the best investment which combined with stimulus should support valuations through the period.

Prism · 10 April 2020 at 10:19AM

Alexland said:

coastline said:
Just for a bit of balance FTSE 100 up 18% from the low. DOW JONES up 25% from the low.

Yup our strategy of tilting into the risk, transfering cash accounts into S&S and continuing with regular contributions has made progress in covering where we saw valuations drop.

I am not that worried about the upcoming earnings announcements as everyone expects they will be impacted and take time to rebuild but over the long term S&S is still likely to be the best investment which combined with stimulus should support valuations through the period.

Pretty much the same for me. Monthly SIPP payments went into the funds that had dropped the most and I also used the opportunity to move some cash (fixed term saver matured) into stocks and infrastructure funds over the last few weeks.
The drop hasn't been too bad for me - roughly at the same position as I was last April excluding the additional contributions.

coastline · 10 April 2020 at 10:39AM

Alexland said:

coastline said:
Just for a bit of balance FTSE 100 up 18% from the low. DOW JONES up 25% from the low.

Yup our strategy of tilting into the risk, transfering cash accounts into S&S and continuing with regular contributions has made progress in covering where we saw valuations drop.

I am not that worried about the upcoming earnings announcements as everyone expects they will be impacted and take time to rebuild but over the long term S&S is still likely to be the best investment which combined with stimulus should support valuations through the period.

Looked at this recently which is from the last correction in 2018-2019. As ever nobody knows but there's some stats here about bear markets with and without a recession. Just need to keep an open mind. Good luck.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/bear-markets-and-recessions?post=204040

Just_a_person · 10 April 2020 at 12:33PM

BananaRepublic said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I think its a fair assessment of where we are at. You can't just give away money without debasing the currency eventually leading to inflation. As for the market, with enough stimulus anything can stay up in numeric terms but in value it will still have fallen due to the effective currency devaluation from the stimulus. We either go down or we have excess stimulus and neither will be good.

We did exactly that 10 years ago and it didn’t cause inflation. It did though mean that we had huge debts, which seriously impacted our wellbeing for many years after.

10 year ago it was loans to the banks. This time they are printing a lot of money most of which I cannot ever see being repaid.

Thrugelmir · 10 April 2020 at 12:40PM

Just_a_person said:

BananaRepublic said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I think its a fair assessment of where we are at. You can't just give away money without debasing the currency eventually leading to inflation. As for the market, with enough stimulus anything can stay up in numeric terms but in value it will still have fallen due to the effective currency devaluation from the stimulus. We either go down or we have excess stimulus and neither will be good.

We did exactly that 10 years ago and it didn’t cause inflation. It did though mean that we had huge debts, which seriously impacted our wellbeing for many years after.

10 year ago it was loans to the banks. This time they are printing a lot of money most of which I cannot ever see being repaid.

A high % of which was to prop up the huge mortgage debt that the UK has. NRAM is progressively winding up the old Northern Rock / Bradford and Bingley mortgage books, Lloyds has worked it's way through the old HBOS ones derisking in the process. An event of such magnitude was always going to take a very long time to unwind. Given it took over a decade to peak.