Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

BananaRepublic

kuratowski said:

Absolutely.  Sorry, I may have misinterpreted what you meant by "exactly that"; I thought you were responding to the money creation that Ed is harping on.

The sequence was: huge debts in private sector -> huge debts in public sector but also
huge debts in general -> loss of confidence -> reduced demand -> quantitative easing

Okay, we agree. 👍🏻

worldtraveller

EdGasketTheSecond said:

For all the buy and hold fans

Has he got a mobile phone or just an itch?

I believe that's a very nice Chrysler Imperial, 1926 or 1927 model.

Thrugelmir

JohnRo said:

kuratowski said:

The sequence was: huge debts in private sector -> huge debts in public sector but also
huge debts in general -> loss of confidence -> reduced demand -> quantitative easing

Debt per se wasn't the problem, 

In terms of banks leveraging their balance sheets it was. 

Prism

EdGasketTheSecond said:

For all the buy and hold fans

Has he got a mobile phone or just an itch?

Looks like he has been gambling with 3x daily shorting

ProDave

Just seen a prediction on the news that if the lockdown lasts 3 months, GDP could contract by 22%

Anyone still feel we have seen the bottom on the stock markets?

Linton

ProDave said:

Just seen a prediction on the news that if the lockdown lasts 3 months, GDP could contract by 22%

Anyone still feel we have seen the bottom on the stock markets?

Of course GDP goes down if no-one is buying anything.  It perhaps may be surprising if it is only 22%. I cannot see that the GDP as a number is of any value whatsoever whilst we are in lockdown.  Doesnt "22%" look suspiciously precise?

Does it matter whether we have seen the bottom of the stock market yet?  As an investor you should be looking 5, 10 or more years ahead. Why would anyone else's feelings be an any better guide to the future than yours?  The truth is that no-one knows and those who think they do are fooling themselves. Those who say they do generally have an agenda to sell.

JohnRo

ProDave said:

Just seen a prediction on the news that if the lockdown lasts 3 months, GDP could contract by 22%

Anyone still feel we have seen the bottom on the stock markets?

The stock market is not the economy.

Bravepants

Linton said:

ProDave said:

Just seen a prediction on the news that if the lockdown lasts 3 months, GDP could contract by 22%

Anyone still feel we have seen the bottom on the stock markets?

Of course GDP goes down if no-one is buying anything.

I presume GDP contraction will be seen in other nations widely affected by lock-down. The entire world's GDP would be reduced. But if GDP includes trade in worthless, pointless tat, and the suppliers of said tat dry up, then that can only be a good thing right? No more of the Earth's resources making tat, and then being transported around the world using other resources. Perhaps this could be the time to re-calibrate capitalism? Not every business making tat needs to survive.

masonic

ProDave said:

Just seen a prediction on the news that if the lockdown lasts 3 months, GDP could contract by 22%

Anyone still feel we have seen the bottom on the stock markets?

If you've "seen a prediction on the news" then you can be sure the market has already reacted to the information.

As to your question, I don't know. Nor does anyone.

BananaRepublic

Bravepants said:

Linton said:

ProDave said:

Just seen a prediction on the news that if the lockdown lasts 3 months, GDP could contract by 22%

Anyone still feel we have seen the bottom on the stock markets?

Of course GDP goes down if no-one is buying anything.

I presume GDP contraction will be seen in other nations widely affected by lock-down. The entire world's GDP would be reduced. But if GDP includes trade in worthless, pointless tat, and the suppliers of said tat dry up, then that can only be a good thing right? No more of the Earth's resources making tat, and then being transported around the world using other resources. Perhaps this could be the time to re-calibrate capitalism? Not every business making tat needs to survive.

The Jewish Chronicle is going into administration. Friends run a mini ice rink which could go bust. Many high street shops already threatened by unfair competition from online shops who pay less tax will go bust. Restaurants and cafes will go bust. Tour operators and sports facilities may go bust. So much tat to say farewell to.