Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

worldtraveller

Well, unless the markets suddenly back off by midday, I'll be cashing out my recent FTSE All Share Tracker fund buy back ins at 27% & 35% from peak and take what looks like it should be around an overall 6-7% gain. IMHO we're seeing a dead cat bounce and I'll await a reversal before dipping cash back in again.

JohnRo

Gamblers anonymous.

[Deleted User]

worldtraveller said:

Well, unless the markets suddenly back off by midday, I'll be cashing out my recent FTSE All Share Tracker fund buy back ins at 27% & 35% from peak and take what looks like it should be around an overall 6-7% gain. IMHO we're seeing a dead cat bounce and I'll await a reversal before dipping cash back in again.

Are you pretty sure about the dead cat bounce?
I've seen my portfolio up 25% in two days but desperately need to buy more. 
Worrying I've missed it. Surely it cant recover from here yes?

worldtraveller

JohnRo said:

Gamblers anonymous.

Call it what you like. It's a relatively small overall part of my SIPP & ISA investments which I trade. I did the same in 2008/09 and it worked very well then. Obviously only time will tell though.

kinger101

newatc said:

kinger101 said:

newatc said:

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

The markets barely moved during the first two months of the pandemic (not officially called that then) and with hindsight they were terribly wrong. So I take little comfort from your statement. 

The pandemic wasn't declared as such until 11th of March.  While there's no standard criteria for one set by the WHO, the first confirmed case in Europe wasn't until 24th Jan, and USA until 15th Jan.  The crash started 21 Feb, so definitely not two months after the pandemic. A date on which there were still only 12 confirmed cases in France, 21 in Italy and 29 in USA.

Hardly worth worrying about but the FTSE index didn't fall below 7000 until Feb 27 so it can't be said to have crashed before. Coronvirus probably started in November but was being discussed before end of December. So two months (while not scientifically correct) is nearer enough for a debate of this kind.

The downward momentum, with the exception of a small bounce, was pretty much the same between 21 Feb and the bottom date.  
And it wasn't a pandemic until WHO declared it so.  Not scientifically correct is akin to wrong.

worldtraveller

Deleted_User said:

worldtraveller said:

Well, unless the markets suddenly back off by midday, I'll be cashing out my recent FTSE All Share Tracker fund buy back ins at 27% & 35% from peak and take what looks like it should be around an overall 6-7% gain. IMHO we're seeing a dead cat bounce and I'll await a reversal before dipping cash back in again.

Are you pretty sure about the dead cat bounce?
I've seen my portfolio up 25% in two days but desperately need to buy more. 
Worrying I've missed it. Surely it cant recover from here yes?

Obviouisly I can't be sure of anything. It's purely a personal view that we'll see a reversal for sure.

Sailtheworld

Deleted_User said:

worldtraveller said:

Well, unless the markets suddenly back off by midday, I'll be cashing out my recent FTSE All Share Tracker fund buy back ins at 27% & 35% from peak and take what looks like it should be around an overall 6-7% gain. IMHO we're seeing a dead cat bounce and I'll await a reversal before dipping cash back in again.

Are you pretty sure about the dead cat bounce?
I've seen my portfolio up 25% in two days but desperately need to buy more. 
Worrying I've missed it. Surely it cant recover from here yes?

If your portfolio can go up by 25% in two days then it can fall by as much too.

When there's so much volatility around it's easier to call a couple of up days a dead cat bounce. It's a far bigger call to declare the 5th April 2020 the bottom. 

MaxiRobriguez

Sentiment is rising on expectation of Europe and US passing the peak in the next couple of weeks and the economy restarting shortly after. What people seem to be overlooking for now is:

1) We have no evidence in the West we can get our numbers to zero like China, so there's every prospect of 500 odd deaths a day for the forseeable which is just continued disruption for businesses even if they re-open.
2) Prospect of second, third, fourth wave being ignored.
3) Prospect of consumers not running out to buy tat from the shops in favour of hoarding cash is being ignored.

I think we're unlikely so see a significant 15-20% rally which is what I'd want to see if I was parting with lots of cash now. I've made small investments in the US and bought a fair chunk of Unilever yesterday but I'm still sitting on a decent chunk of cash to see what happens next.

Just_a_person

worldtraveller said:

Well, unless the markets suddenly back off by midday, I'll be cashing out my recent FTSE All Share Tracker fund buy back ins at 27% & 35% from peak and take what looks like it should be around an overall 6-7% gain. IMHO we're seeing a dead cat bounce and I'll await a reversal before dipping cash back in again.

Disagree. I think we are seeing the removal of some uncertainy, governments worldwide are starting to make noises that they will not simply destroy their economies during this pandemic. They are backing up businesses where they can and the markets like it. If governments are printing billions of pounds worth of local currencies and reducing interest rates, this money needs to go somewhere. Personally I think in the UK they are trying to back up the NHS with enough ventilators and then we might see some restrictions being lifted. This isnt a complex illness, its a respiratory problem though sadly many do not recover.

My investment strategy is simple. Pick individual companies from a range of sectors that have strong cash and asset sheets and are proven in delivering profits year on year. If you can do this and can afford to sit on the invetsments for 12-18 months you should do well. Whatever short term trading happens in the interim is just background noise.

Alistair31

Just wait until companies start to report their figures. Then the true toll of the Chinese virus will be known and there will be another dip. 

Note: Opinion only