Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Prism

newatc said:

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

The markets barely moved during the first two months of the pandemic (not officially called that then) and with hindsight they were terribly wrong. So I take little comfort from your statement. 

That's because with the information available at the time the consensus was that it wouldn't be that bad. Then more information became available and things repriced. There is still very little information around about how this has effected company profits, although we can clearly see the effect of the dividend cuts made so far.

coastline

Posted this last week. I wonder if its a bull flag.  
https://www.chartpatterns.com/flagsandpennants.htm
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

quirkydeptless

coastline said:

Posted this last week. I wonder if its a bull flag. 

kinger101

newatc said:

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

The markets barely moved during the first two months of the pandemic (not officially called that then) and with hindsight they were terribly wrong. So I take little comfort from your statement. 

The pandemic wasn't declared as such until 11th of March.  While there's no standard criteria for one set by the WHO, the first confirmed case in Europe wasn't until 24th Jan, and USA until 15th Jan.  The crash started 21 Feb, so definitely not two months after the pandemic. A date on which there were still only 12 confirmed cases in France, 21 in Italy and 29 in USA.

Alexland

EdGasketTheSecond said:

That's not true at all because there is a lag or inertia in markets.

It's not a lag if new information becomes available that in hindsight would have changed the balance of information that was previously available if it had been available at the time. That's just the future gradually occurring.

Username999

coastline said:

Posted this last week. I wonder if its a bull flag.  
https://www.chartpatterns.com/flagsandpennants.htm
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

Nope, I still can't see it.

But I can make out a Dolphin in the cloud over my house ...

BananaRepublic

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

Markets act on information rather than speculation. This crash could go deeper of course. I still haven’t seen an exit strategy put forward, though to be fair the government are most likely basing decisions on events rather than predictions since there is so much unknown. I don’t blame them. 

My concern is if lockdown ends, the virus will spread, if lockdown continues the economy crashes and people die due to lack of money (pensioners freeze, cancer patients don’t get treated, police shortages mean more killings etc). Heads we lose, tails we lose ...

BananaRepublic

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

That's not true at all because there is a lag or inertia in markets. Initially, and myself included, holders are unwilling to sell and crystalise a loss on shares they have become emotionally attached to or because a general bear market has not yet been confirmed. There will be rallies like this one on the way down that tend to draw in optimists thinking the bottom has already been reached or that they are getting a bargain because the share price is cheaper than last month. What they don't realise is that it is a bull trap and that the market will continue on its downward trajectory for some time. The companies they are buying 'on the cheap' are not the same as they were a month ago; dividends have been stopped, business has dried up and all of a sudden their market cap is smaller than their borrowings meaning they could be in trouble.

There is no lag in markets, quite the opposite. As soon as information is known, markets react. There might be a lag in information appearing of course. As for being emotionally attached to shares, that is the road to ruin. Most share holders will base decisions on what are perceived as rational grounds eg company X gets a big order from Dubai. 

I don’t see a problem buying now. In the GFC I bought £20,000 of shares. The market went down much more. So I bought another shed load. And the market still went down a bit. A few years later both batches of shares had made a handsome profit, just the first lot had made less than the second lot of course. Timing the market cannot be done and I was pleased with my gains. As far as I am concerned shares are about playing the long game, that way you reduce risk, and the dependence on luck. You have to realise that in the long term you are highly likely to make big gains, but you cannot predict events, and you might have to wait many more years before you can sell. I have retired early and fortunately I have cash reserves for at least three years ... I’m still a bit worried though by current events. 

EdGasketTheSecond

Why is this thread closed after only 18 posts?

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6126135/is-the-government-manipulating-the-market#latest

Isn't it supposed to be common knowledge that the govt's manipulate the market?

Username999

Big Brother is watching.