Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

LHW99

The average company that has never offered DB schemes in recent memory are not offering double digit percentages.

And there will be a lot of smaller companies who never offered a pension of any sort. Employees there would have relied on the SP only in the past. So with the new SP, apparently intended to reduce the requirement for pension credit, they should actually be better off than in the past and could always use the DC pot for an annuity, particularly once over the age of 70, when these seem to become better value.

ProDave

Getting back to the markets.

A quick look back, shows the FTSE100 dropped by about 47% in the GFC, an event that led to a recession with a loss of about 4% of GDP.

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

I don't see that as giving any confidence that we are anything like the bottom yet.

Alexland

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

kinger101

justme111 said:

Well if DB members can contribute 9% of their pay as you yourself said nobody stops auto enrolment members putting in 9% instead of 3%.
Keep in mind - CARE scheme can be taken unreduced at 67 currently - let's be honest ,  it that much life is left after 67... All this "generous" pension will probably be enjoyed for about 15 years only ..

The mean life expectancy at 65 is currently around 18.6 years for males, and 21 years for females.  But with DC, the risk of longevity is all on the individual.   They can either mitigate this with a annuity (which are presently poor value) or hope their drawdown strategy is sufficiently robust to cope.  The standard deviations of these means mentioned above is 7 years.  Meaning it's reasonable to add 14 years to these mean longevity values for planning purposes to even get to 95% chance of not dying broke. 

Putting in 9% of salary into a pension scheme is unlikely to give someone a pension akin to a DB scheme without the employer putting in 15-20 %.  I think a lot of people in the public sector don't know the true value of their pension schemes.  To fund the equivalent, one needs to build a fund of 25-30 x the desired annual pension.

bostonerimus

For those that liquidated, have you bought back in yet?

Thrugelmir

My watch list is growing 

Thrugelmir

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

Will Easyjet cancel it's orders for 107 aircraft from Airbus worth £4.5 billion?  That's the type of news event which will drive markets going forward. As will be a statement on the state of the global airline industry not just the imapct on manufacturing output. Not us idly speculating. 

Username999

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

Will Easyjet cancel it's orders for 107 aircraft from Airbus worth £4.5 billion?  That's the type of news event which will drive markets going forward. As will be a statement on the state of the global airline industry not just the imapct on manufacturing output. Not us idly speculating. 

 Easyjet will cancel the order if Stelios gets his way.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/easyjet-founder-digs-battle-management-104531923.html?.tsrc=rss

EdGasketTheSecond

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

That's not true at all because there is a lag or inertia in markets. Initially, and myself included, holders are unwilling to sell and crystalise a loss on shares they have become emotionally attached to or because a general bear market has not yet been confirmed. There will be rallies like this one on the way down that tend to draw in optimists thinking the bottom has already been reached or that they are getting a bargain because the share price is cheaper than last month. What they don't realise is that it is a bull trap and that the market will continue on its downward trajectory for some time. The companies they are buying 'on the cheap' are not the same as they were a month ago; dividends have been stopped, business has dried up and all of a sudden their market cap is smaller than their borrowings meaning they could be in trouble.

newatc

Alexland said:

ProDave said:

People are predicting the CV-19 recession to de deeper and possibly longer, yet the FTSE100 has only dropped 30%

Which suggests the market doesn't agree with people who get paid to write exciting newspaper articles. If that was a shared consensus prediction the markets would have already dropped further.

The markets barely moved during the first two months of the pandemic (not officially called that then) and with hindsight they were terribly wrong. So I take little comfort from your statement.