Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

EdGasketTheSecond

So what is your prediction from here?

bostonerimus

coastline said:

tropic_of_Username004 said:

coastline said:

I'm not making bold claims its over and we recover from here. All I posted recently was SP 500 has a low of 2855 and over a week its never been broken. A line in the sand but next week who knows.
 

So what you're saying is: the recent low is 2855, and either that will remain the recent low, or there will be a new, lower low. Wow, I'd never have know that without the help of technical analysis

All TA gives us is some terminology to describe what's happened when markets have gone up or down. It doesn't tell us what will happen next, or even the probabilities of different outcomes. So what is the point?

You might argue that the terminology is meaningful in the sense that it is describing the mood of traders, which is itself one of the factors which does influence future market moves. And that may be true. But that doesn't make TA actually useful (i.e. predictive).

If the market had gone down for 7 straight sessions then no line in the sand could be suggested. The fact that 2855 was a low a week gone Friday is just about all we have to go on. Both Fridays there was a massive rally from lows and I think this Friday got around 2880 ?
The 2008 crash ended in a similar fashion with a massive daily rally from a low and this is the nature of things market related. Recently the 2019 correction ended similar.
Did you know 2855 was a low without it being posted here and did you know about the daily reversals both Fridays ? It's hard to see this behaviour without looking at a chart and candle charts show Open, High, Low and Close of the daily price. Very useful to me but for other people 
I doubt it ?
Everybody to their own I suppose and I happen to like charts and indicators. Buy and hold ain't for me anymore.

Such short term numerology doesn’t interest me, and I’d say it shouldn’t interest anyone with a sensible long term plan either. I do arrange my finances so that I have a high probability of success according to all the ways you can slice and dice historical data on an annual basis, but I make no claims to have any idea where the markets are going on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. And I have organized my finances so that stock crashes as large as 2008 or 1929 will not compromise my retirement income.

If you are trying to see trends or pick out selling opportunities are you looking at any derivatives of the data or statistical moments. These would give you even more rope.

kinger101

EdGasketTheSecond said:

So what is your prediction from here?

That in six month's time, a lot of people will be sick of eating all the pasta they stockpiled.

John_

chucknorris said:

John_ said:

chucknorris said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

How will you assess when we have 'really crashed' though? What would be your criteria and how would you know it wasn't a bull trap?

Well as most of my additional funds are not available for over 2 years, it would be a fairly long bull trap

Do you know that phrases like “bull trap” are simply not used in professional trading? They are used by technical analysts, who are no better than astrologers, and pundits.

I’ve traded for over twenty years now as my job, and have not once heard anyone say “bull trap” ever.

Why are you saying that to me? I was responding to a poster who used that phrase to me! If you had any sense at all you would have said it to him.

Fair enough.

BrockStoker

Well Brent oil futures have just crashed 20+%, and NASDAQ/S&P/Asian markets are all significantly down.

I think it's safe to say there will be buying opportunities today, and perhaps even better opportunities in the days ahead, but I will invest a small part now just in case that is the last of the panic.

tropic_of_Username004

coastline said:

Did you know 2855 was a low without it being posted here and did you know about the daily reversals both Fridays ?

No, happy to admit that I knew none of that; also, that I had no idea about the future direction of markets.

Now, I do know those things; and I still have no idea about the future direction of markets. Do you see my point?

bowlhead99

BrockStoker said:

Well Brent oil futures have just crashed 20+%, and NASDAQ/S&P/Asian markets are all significantly down.

I think it's safe to say there will be buying opportunities today, and perhaps even better opportunities in the days ahead, but I will invest a small part now just in case that is the last of the panic.

FTSE closed at 6462 Friday and IG.com are pricing it at 6120-6125 for Monday, about 5% off. Dow closed at 25865 but IG's spreads showing you can buy at 24760, over a thousand points lower.  Plenty of people thinking of 'repositioning' what they have.
[edit; now showing 6155-6160 for the FTSE (it will all have changed again before the market is actually ready to open) but Australia ASX is currently down 5.8%. Most major markets are correlated - so Australia and Japan will be down because they saw US down, then Europe and US will be down because they see Asia going down; nobody wants to be left holding the baby and pricing too high...]

At an interview at the CDC yesterday, Trump said that personally he doesn't want to bring home any Americans with the virus because it would be embarrassing for the number of cases in the US to go up especially if they caught it overseas where it wasn't his fault. Not fair that it would blow his numbers, so he would prefer they just live or die overseas where they are. However, he then begrudgingly said that if the experts want to bring them home, they can. Those of us who have long since given up on being horrified by his interviews are just laughing at it, but the guy is taking himself seriously - tact and empathy and the appearance of wisdom are for wimps.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-main-concern-about-coronavirus-is-himself-964175/

Still, at least we know he will be doing what he can to pump up the markets at all costs and keep interest rates down to help his business interests and property empire in the face of a drop in tourism.

BrockStoker

Plenty of people thinking of 'repositioning' what they have.

It looks like "repositioning" has already started. It will certainly be interesting to see where it leads over the next few days, and to see how the various strategies hold up.

masonic

2010 said:

masonic said:

2010 said:

Markets don`t rise in a straight line.
They also don`t fall in a straight line.
But it`s pretty obvious the way things are looking at the moment, it`s a downward trend.
Anyone brave enough should sell (if they can) a percentage of their portofolio on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait.
Say what you like, but the indices will be llower later than they are now.
Ftse100 6,462, Dow 25,864 March 6th 2020

Happy to try this experiment with a virtual holding in VWRL. I'll note the price I "sell" on the next rally and wait for your signal to buy it back.

Good show, keep us informed when you sell and for how much, then buy them back later at a cheaper price.
Sounds a bit like short selling.

I now have 3 virtual portfolios open to track how someone would perform if they do as you or others have suggested.

1) Sell on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait (status: waiting for rally, will then sell):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

Cash: £0

2) Sell ASAP, and sit out of the market until markets are much lower (status: sold, waiting for buying opportunity):

VWRL: Sold 170 @ 60.01GBP, current Qty 0, value £0

Cash: £10.2k

3) Long term buy and hold (status: holding):

VWRL: Qty 170, current value £10.2k

For my real investments I'm taking an approach closest to (3), although I have 45% of my assets in cash and bonds which I will be using to buy over the next 2-3 months. I would have bought some today but am waiting for an ISA transfer that is not yet complete.

snooloui

FTSE 100 is down almost 9%, I think we can safely say the worst isn’t over yet.