Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

John_

BrockStoker said:

So what are you going to do? I’m going to do nothing.

All I'm doing is making sure I have cash available if there is a drop in the markets. As others have said - you get more for your money if you buy after a significant fall.

Nothing different than I normally do. Continue to invest periodically and then not think too much more about it.

Alz1986

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Is anyone else contemplating or have ever liquidated all their shareholdings and stayed in cash (or some other non-equity investment) while markets have crashed? I am thinking that this is probably only the beginning of a protracted bear market and we could see values drop by a third from here.

This virus is here to stay. The economy will adjust itself, and so too will the stock markets.

coastline

kinger101 said:

coastline said:

Who knows what will happen but there's nothing wrong with looking back at history. 

Nobody knows what will happen.  There's nothing wrong with looking back at history, proving it's done with a degree of rigour, and an understanding that it only explains the past.  A cFireSim analysis won't tell me how well a retirement pot will do in the future under various scenarios.  I might just make reasonable assumptions that one with a 99% historical success rate is better than one with a 75% historical success.  But as even the 99% success rate would have me dying anything between a pauper and a multi-millionaire on the historical data, it's of very poor value in assessing future performance.  And that's with a dataset with a large n.  You're making bold claims about the predictive value of less than 1 hour's trading on a single index using a very small n.  You are the guy in the pub who knows when the fruit machine will pay out because the lights are flashing in the right sequence.   Not understanding it's human nature to see patterns in the noise like faces in the clouds.

I'm not making bold claims its over and we recover from here. All I posted recently was SP 500 has a low of 2855 and over a week its never been broken. A line in the sand but next week who knows. Just to illustrate the point again I've had a quick google and come up with a couple of charts not the best but here goes. After a short term cliff edge drop we normally have a period of volatility and consolidation. Those periods can be seen in both charts.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rtUoYNSLth8/U30z4Bli5LI/AAAAAAAAHA0/GzAZNmHR3dY/s1600/fig1.gif
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oQb3CNvQkao/U30z9L-IfiI/AAAAAAAAHA8/059KPf1n7sM/s1600/fig2.gif
Pick any index on the link in any timeframe Day week 2 yrs etc and you'll see similar.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/stock-market

 

2010

masonic said:

2010 said:

Markets don`t rise in a straight line.
They also don`t fall in a straight line.
But it`s pretty obvious the way things are looking at the moment, it`s a downward trend.
Anyone brave enough should sell (if they can) a percentage of their portofolio on the next rally, sit on the cash and wait.
Say what you like, but the indices will be llower later than they are now.
Ftse100 6,462, Dow 25,864 March 6th 2020

Happy to try this experiment with a virtual holding in VWRL. I'll note the price I "sell" on the next rally and wait for your signal to buy it back.

Good show, keep us informed when you sell and for how much, then buy them back later at a cheaper price.
Sounds a bit like short selling.

tropic_of_Username004

coastline said:

I'm not making bold claims its over and we recover from here. All I posted recently was SP 500 has a low of 2855 and over a week its never been broken. A line in the sand but next week who knows.
 

So what you're saying is: the recent low is 2855, and either that will remain the recent low, or there will be a new, lower low. Wow, I'd never have know that without the help of technical analysis

All TA gives us is some terminology to describe what's happened when markets have gone up or down. It doesn't tell us what will happen next, or even the probabilities of different outcomes. So what is the point?

You might argue that the terminology is meaningful in the sense that it is describing the mood of traders, which is itself one of the factors which does influence future market moves. And that may be true. But that doesn't make TA actually useful (i.e. predictive).

worldtraveller

IMHO, I'm expecting, at least, a 30% decline in major western markets from peak, at this time. Just like in 2008/09, I'm planning on reinvesting accumulted cash, built up over the past 6 months or so, expecting a market correction, just as I did in late 2008.

I'm planning to start feeding accumulated cash back in to equities when we see c. 20% decline from peak, which we'll see, almost certainly, next week. It'll be measured, and it'll increase, if and when the markets declines further, which I expect.

It suited me very well in 2008/2009, when, TBH, I made more return on my equity investments, than any time in the previous 20 years, at least.

Quite frankly, I love these rare opportunities, in a lifetime, to make major returns on investments, when others are panicking...It's something you learn over time, and, for those that are prepared to take the risk, enjoy the ride...For those that aren't, then fine, I have no issue, whatsoever, with that. Your choice, your money!

Good luck!

2010

worldtraveller said:

IMHO, I'm expecting, at least, a 30% decline in major western markets from peak, at this time. Just like in 2008/09, I'm planning on reinvesting accumulted cash, built up over the past 6 months or so, expecting a market correction, just as I did in late 2008.

I'm planning to start feeding accumulated cash back in to equities when we see c. 20% decline from peak, which we'll see, almost certainly, next week. It'll be measured, and it'll increase, if and when the markets declines further, which I expect.

It suited me very well in 2008/2009, when, TBH, I made more return on my equity investments, than any time in the previous 20 years, at least.

Quite frankly, I love these rare opportunities, in a lifetime, to make major returns on investments, when others are panicking...It's something you learn over time, and, for those that are prepared to take the risk, enjoy the ride...For those that aren't, then fine, I have no issue, whatsoever, with that. Your choice, your money!

Good luck!

Good post, unlike others like rabbits caught in the headlights and failing to see the blindingly obvious.
Markets are on the drop, big time.

Prism

2010 said:

worldtraveller said:

IMHO, I'm expecting, at least, a 30% decline in major western markets from peak, at this time. Just like in 2008/09, I'm planning on reinvesting accumulted cash, built up over the past 6 months or so, expecting a market correction, just as I did in late 2008.

I'm planning to start feeding accumulated cash back in to equities when we see c. 20% decline from peak, which we'll see, almost certainly, next week. It'll be measured, and it'll increase, if and when the markets declines further, which I expect.

It suited me very well in 2008/2009, when, TBH, I made more return on my equity investments, than any time in the previous 20 years, at least.

Quite frankly, I love these rare opportunities, in a lifetime, to make major returns on investments, when others are panicking...It's something you learn over time, and, for those that are prepared to take the risk, enjoy the ride...For those that aren't, then fine, I have no issue, whatsoever, with that. Your choice, your money!

Good luck!

Good post, unlike others like rabbits caught in the headlights and failing to see the blindingly obvious.
Markets are on the drop, big time.

There is nothing blindingly obvious to see. You have no idea which way the markets will go. Nobody does. Your guess is they will go down a long way. You might be right but since nobody actually knows the best thing to do is carry on like normal. Nothing to see here

worldtraveller

PS. If anyone's interested and/or has nothing better to do, maybe just read through this thread, "Economy ready for meltdown". which was started in Discussion Time, back in June 2007, by peter999.

Some of us were predicting the financial crisis several months before it actually happened, and took action accordingly.

Sorry that it has over 2,400 replies, but, IMHO, it's well worth a read, to see how these things often pan out, if you're really interested in any investments over the medium/long term....Today we have a similar scenario, IMHO, not mainly financial institution based, but based on global health.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/487895/economy-ready-for-meltdown/p1

DYOR

bostonerimus

coastline said:

bostonerimus said:

coastline said:

kinger101 said:

coastline said:

Worth noting that Fridays close in USA was similar to last Friday. There was a massive rally in the last hour which can be seen in the link below. If you look at the tails on the candles you can see yesterdays low was higher than last week. I've posted before this is how bottoms are formed but as we know a crash is totally different. So far a correction and that's all it is and of course now it depends on the daily news stories.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0qvWPLNtxIY/XmK8zVQVenI/AAAAAAAB1Fc/DQ-UrZQLe9Ix-Y_wTpPKmrMN6lXwpaqAACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spdaily5+mar6.png
 

But what does that mean for the average Pisces?  

Over the last week we have a low of 2855 on the chart and a higher low this Friday suggesting a bottom may be forming ? We have a glimmer of hope.

Watch the video.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76886031#Comment_76886031

What a load of ****. Anyone who name drops Fibonacci and the Golden Ratio in connection with a stock chart is being completely irrational IMO. Rather than watching that video use your time more productively and find out exactly why the Golden Ratio is the most irrational of numbers.

I haven't posted the video to bombard readers with TA. Golden Ratio, Fibonacci etc. I'm not bothered about that. The point is we've had dramatic daily falls of 3% and over and the video shows how similar events in recent years have played out. In most cases the market has stabilised at some level but volatility remained for a month or two. Who knows what will happen but there's nothing wrong with looking back at history. So at this present moment we have 2855 on the SP 500 as the lowest in this correction. It was tested on Friday but there was a reversal in the last hour and the market regained most of the daily falls. We have a line in the sand 2855. A glimmer of hope for those who are concerned about crashes etc. Next week well who knows ?

These situations appear to test the nerve of posters and DIY investors and it makes you think about tolerance of risk. You never know until you are hit with a 20% plus correction . There wouldn't be threads appearing on the various forums if posters were really that calm about it. Hopefully everything works out fine by the summer for all concerned. 

BTW Bustednoseonthebus I do use my time productively I've had a nice few days in the garden preparing for the Spring and coming Summer. 

If such chart numerology gives people the impression that they can time the market then it is a dangerous thing. Keeping money out of the markets other than as emergency cash (which should be for spending, not investing) means that you miss out on all the ups and the associated dividends. The vast majority of investors will be better off using a multi-asset fund that rebalances. The use of "Fibonacci and Golden Ratio" in the video just annoys me. Getting out into the garden is a good use of time and in the summer it's also an opportunity to see a famous Golden Ratio in the arrangement of seeds in some flowers.