Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

coastline

kinger101 said:

coastline said:

Worth noting that Fridays close in USA was similar to last Friday. There was a massive rally in the last hour which can be seen in the link below. If you look at the tails on the candles you can see yesterdays low was higher than last week. I've posted before this is how bottoms are formed but as we know a crash is totally different. So far a correction and that's all it is and of course now it depends on the daily news stories.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0qvWPLNtxIY/XmK8zVQVenI/AAAAAAAB1Fc/DQ-UrZQLe9Ix-Y_wTpPKmrMN6lXwpaqAACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spdaily5+mar6.png
 

But what does that mean for the average Pisces?  

Over the last week we have a low of 2855 on the chart and a higher low this Friday suggesting a bottom may be forming ? We have a glimmer of hope.

Watch the video.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76886031#Comment_76886031

masonic

coastline said:

Over the last week we have a low of 2855 on the chart and a higher low this Friday suggesting a bottom may be forming ? We have a glimmer of hope.

A glimmer of hope from a bottom forming? Is that known as a new moon?

bostonerimus

coastline said:

kinger101 said:

coastline said:

Worth noting that Fridays close in USA was similar to last Friday. There was a massive rally in the last hour which can be seen in the link below. If you look at the tails on the candles you can see yesterdays low was higher than last week. I've posted before this is how bottoms are formed but as we know a crash is totally different. So far a correction and that's all it is and of course now it depends on the daily news stories.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0qvWPLNtxIY/XmK8zVQVenI/AAAAAAAB1Fc/DQ-UrZQLe9Ix-Y_wTpPKmrMN6lXwpaqAACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/spdaily5+mar6.png
 

But what does that mean for the average Pisces?  

Over the last week we have a low of 2855 on the chart and a higher low this Friday suggesting a bottom may be forming ? We have a glimmer of hope.

Watch the video.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/76886031#Comment_76886031

What a load of ****. Anyone who name drops Fibonacci and the Golden Ratio in connection with a stock chart is being completely irrational IMO. Rather than watching that video use your time more productively and find out exactly why the Golden Ratio is the most irrational of numbers.

kinger101

bostonerimus said:

. Rather than watching that video use your time more productively and find out exactly why the Golden Ratio is the most irrational of numbers.

Weren't they signed to Factory Records?

chucknorris

Reaper said:

I don't plan to sell anything 

I agree with you, but I have also (I think) have prepared for a much worse scenario. By having money available for substantial future equity investment if the market really crashes'

EdGasketTheSecond

How will you assess when we have 'really crashed' though? What would be your criteria and how would you know it wasn't a bull trap?

NorthernJoe

chucknorris said:

Reaper said:

Here's my opinion for what it's worth...

1) I think the scare is overdone. Season flu kills an average of 17,000 in the UK every year but doesn't cause this level of panic. Both diseases are of most risk to those who are old or have existing conditions, but unlike the flu Coravid-19 does not seem seem to be particularly dangerous to children. BUT...

2) Despite what I said above I think the reaction of people and governments limiting movement, shutting down places of work and cancelling events means it will have a significant effect on businesses and therefore stock market.

Taking those 2 facts together I don't plan to sell anything but will wait until I feel the disease is approaching its peak them buy whatever I can with whatever spare cash I can get my hand on. That's because demand has not gone away. It's only supply that is being affected so I am expecting a rapid bounce back to levels not much short of where they were.

I agree with you, but I have also (I think) have prepared for a much worse scenario. By having money available for substantial future equity investment if the market really crashes'

I disagree. The government has been treading carefully to try and prepare people for the inevitable, try not to cause panic and yet plan behind the scenes. As a result, in my view, as someone involved in that planning, the risks have been significantly underplayed in public. 

I too am cautious not to be seen to scaremonger but the reality is, this is bad - worse than anything we as a society & health care system have face outside of wartime in 100 years. I am dismayed by the general level of ambivalence to it all - call it British humour, stiff upper lip and all that but we would all do well to recognise the reality of what is upon us and prepare for this, individually & collectively. 

Italy is the first developed country to have dealt with a significant outbreak of Covid19. It’s also the first country that has reliable figures that we might extrapolate to our own population to inform planning & the figures are stark -

Currently 64% of Covid19 infected are in hospital.  10% of currently infected are in intensive care. So far, ~11% of total cases have recovered and 3.8% died. 10% of the hospitalised are doctors. 

Given the vast majority of us will get this, this will, at the very least be a major test for the NHS. At it's worst, this will collapse our healthcare system. A lot of hopes are being pinned on this virus fading away in our typically tropical British summer but the reality is, there is very little data to support that. 

Quite what that means for markets/investments & the economy is not clear and is obviously a secondary consideration far behind the health & wellbeing of our population. . . but then this is a finance forum; 

School/businesses will undoubtably be forced to close en masse, those that attempt (or are permitted) to stay open will face major staffing issues. Globalisation has meant that small & medium sized businesses etc are very vulnerable to supply chain issues (remember that "hard Brexit" business?). Abrupt supply & demand shortages and an inability to move goods/services will result in almost immediate cash crunch. 

With significant central bank & government aid they may weather the storm but for how long? Two months? Six months? Roll on Summer eh? 

Significant defaults & second credit crunch are not beyond the realms of possibility. How much leverage do central banks have this time round to avert that and maintain liquidity? 

bowlhead99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

How will you assess when we have 'really crashed' though? What would be your criteria and how would you know it wasn't a bull trap?

If the market has crashed so that companies are a lot cheaper than they are today, it will be a relatively better time to buy for the long term than if they have merely corrected a little, as they have today.  I was looking at my parents ISAs for them earlier - the bonds/ infrastructure/ property funds are about where they were a week into January, (well, 1% down);  the 100% equity funds are down about 9% since the same date, and the mixed asset funds are down 3.7%; so the whole portfolio is off by about 5%. It's off by more than that from a peak along the way, but that just reminds me that they don't need to look at these things daily or weekly.

If you are buying heavily at considerably lower than the peak, it doesn't really matter whether someone trying to be clever tells you that they read on a trading blog that is a 'bull trap'. The average investor on the planet does not use language like 'bull trap'; the 50+ trillion of investible equity capital is not really controlled by the people trying to skim off an extra fraction round the edges who make up terminology to try to show off or sell you something. The traders throw out buzzwords to make it sound like they know what the market will inevitably do; much of it is a defence mechanism to help them get over the fact that they really don't. Real long-term investors would describe the process of chartistry with something other than 'tr' in the second word.

BrockStoker

Perhaps the point I was trying to make went over your head

Quite possibly. It wouldn't be the first time!

John_

Aretnap said:

John_ said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Is anyone else contemplating or have ever liquidated all their shareholdings and stayed in cash (or some other non-equity investment) while markets have crashed? I am thinking that this is probably only the beginning of a protracted bear market and we could see values drop by a third from here.

Given your belief in your ability to time the markets so well you’ve presumably being doing that for a few years now, and generating some absolutely spectacular returns.

It's undoubtably very sad that my memeor stretches so far back, but I'll just leave this here

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5360627/anyone-else-making-a-loss-on-all-their-s-s-investments/p1

Oops, so closer to a negative indicator than an investing sage. Why do people who know for certain that they don’t have an edge keep convincing themselves that they have an edge?