Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

Audaxer

bostonerimus said:

LobsterMemory said:

So these people who invested in passive funds because no-one can beat the markets now want to outsmart the market.
Crazy.

Maybe you should say "So some of these people..." I'll take a look at the end of the quarter and maybe do some rebalancing of my mostly passive funds. People with VLSxxx will be automatically rebalanced.

My VLS funds are holding up better than my active funds over the last few weeks. I'm not sure how often they are automatically rebalanced but they are doing okay.

2010

Ftse 100 peak 7534 on the 12th Feb.
Yesterday, just three weeks later, it`s now 6462.
Is the downward trend going to continue and the start of a long bear market.
No one knows the depth of the damage and expense the virus will cause worldwide.

Alexland

My son lost his toy yesterday. If this trend continues he could lose a lot more toys. No one knows the depth of the toy loss situation he is now facing. Even if I periodicity rebalance by buying a new toy his inventory of toys might eventually go to zero. My other son is looking worried now.

John_

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Is anyone else contemplating or have ever liquidated all their shareholdings and stayed in cash (or some other non-equity investment) while markets have crashed? I am thinking that this is probably only the beginning of a protracted bear market and we could see values drop by a third from here.

Given your belief in your ability to time the markets so well you’ve presumably being doing that for a few years now, and generating some absolutely spectacular returns.

The alternative view is that you have no ability at all to time the market, and have been generating returns in line with the asset classes in which you are invested.

This being the case, it’s easy to work out what you should do. If you have returned 20%+ above the index for the last decade then continue with your strategy,mane go with your belief.

If, as I suspect, you haven’t, then don’t be so foolish.

John_

royalmike said:

Sold all my stock in September mind you as was living in North America was mainly invested in US and Canadian market plus Asia. Seemed to me we it was only a matter of time before a big correction then, now we have the virus on top.
Cash in several different currencies and about 20% gold now

Posts like this always amuse me, as they always magically appear months after the event, when the wisdom of the hindsight is apparent for all.

Could you, I wonder, show us a post you made at the time about this, or perhaps put up a suitably redacted filled order report?

Mickygg

It’s interesting reading through the various comments. What a lot of people are missing off their posts are years to retirement. This is key.
I personally have about 20 years to retirement so I’m not worried in the slightest. Seeing my investments go down is frustrating on one hand but I’m buying with cash I purposely left to capitalise on a market correction. Drip feeding in so as the market falls I buy a bit more at a lower price. 

The given of a stock market is there will be rises and falls. This creates risk and opportunities for people looking to grow investments over the long term, without such risks there would be no investing as it would be called cash. We were due a big fall and this could be it but no one knows what the bottom will be. People selling or sold out, what will be your trigger point to buy back in?

The people who should be worried are those people looking to retire soon and haven’t rebalanced. I would be anxious if that was me. 

To answer the OP under no circumstances am I selling. It’s just a paper loss and will climb back up in time. It may be months or even years but it will bounce back.

kinger101

royalmike said:

Sold all my stock in September mind you as was living in North America was mainly invested in US and Canadian market plus Asia. Seemed to me we it was only a matter of time before a big correction then, now we have the virus on top.
Cash in several different currencies and about 20% gold now

The S&P 500 is still at the same level as it was in September.  As is the Gold price.  Cash + Gold does not seem a particularly wise allocation to me.

kinger101

John_ said:

royalmike said:

Sold all my stock in September mind you as was living in North America was mainly invested in US and Canadian market plus Asia. Seemed to me we it was only a matter of time before a big correction then, now we have the virus on top.
Cash in several different currencies and about 20% gold now

Posts like this always amuse me, as they always magically appear months after the event, when the wisdom of the hindsight is apparent for all.

Could you, I wonder, show us a post you made at the time about this, or perhaps put up a suitably redacted filled order report?

Seems they're probably at breakeven now.  You definitely won't find the post saying how they were down in the period between September and February.  It reminds me of those people who always know when the fruit machine is going to pay out.

masonic

2010 said:

Ftse 100 peak 7534 on the 12th Feb.
Yesterday, just three weeks later, it`s now 6462.
Is the downward trend going to continue and the start of a long bear market.
No one knows the depth of the damage and expense the virus will cause worldwide.

While we're posting scary statistics, you might wish to mention that the FTSE100 was at this level in April 1999. So no capital growth over 21 years. But perhaps that isn't the full story.

EdGasketTheSecond

UK Equities have been a tough market over the past two decades. I have had a lot invested in real-estate as it looked 'safe' being backed by the physical assets of the underlying property. However as can be seen with INTU and in fact almost all reits, that has clearly not proved a good strategy. I also expected inflation to be somewhat higher due to the low interest rates and QE money printing that went on in the finaciial crash; that hasn't happened either but if it had, would have helped property values.

I think we might see a brief rally now before another leg down as a lot of shares have been temporarily oversold; but thats just my humble opinion.