Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

ZeroSum

Thrugelmir said:

ZeroSum said:

It's funny cos I've just bought a new car, and sold out a load of equities a week before the crash to fund it. Now chucking money back in at a low rate. 

Which will drop the fastest. The value of your new car or the investments you've bought. 

Obviously the car. However I did actually need a new car, and I got a cracking deal wich was actually just as cost effective as buying 2nd hand. 

So all in all, it worked out quite well. 

tigerspill

2010 said:

StevieJ said:

As they say on Wall St. 'If you are going to panic, panic early'

Yea, like when the ftse100 was 7500 a couple of weeks ago.
Lost 1000 points since then and Dow futures predict another big sell off today in USA.
The trend is downwards but how far, sub 5000 on the ftse is quite feasible.

So I assume you have sold everything and awaiting the sub-5000 day when you bet back in?

benbay001

The FTSE 100 CAPE ratio in 1999 was over 30. Today it is 16.
The two are not comparable.

Audaxer

Linton said:

2010 said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Some companies aren't around in the long term; like Carillion, Thomas Cook, and now Flybe

Some people aren`t around in the long term, to wait 20 years for the markets to get back to where they were.

My prediction is that as soon as the number of coronavirus cases begins to level off market prices will rise quite steeply as investors buy in at the bottom.  

That is what I was thinking, but does that mean lots of investors will be able to time the market correctly?

Linton

Audaxer said:

Linton said:

2010 said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Some companies aren't around in the long term; like Carillion, Thomas Cook, and now Flybe

Some people aren`t around in the long term, to wait 20 years for the markets to get back to where they were.

My prediction is that as soon as the number of coronavirus cases begins to level off market prices will rise quite steeply as investors buy in at the bottom.  

That is what I was thinking, but does that mean lots of investors will be able to time the market correctly?

Some will but I suspect the prices will already have risen significantly before the majority will feel ready to risk it.  How many people will want to sell just at the time prices are rising?

Thrugelmir

benbay001 said:

The FTSE 100 CAPE ratio in 1999 was over 30. Today it is 16.
The two are not comparable.

Nor are the current constituents of the index. 

NorthernJoe

My prediction is that as soon as the number of coronavirus cases begins to level off market prices will rise quite steeply as investors buy in at the bottom.  

That is what I was thinking, but does that mean lots of investors will be able to time the market correctly?

That assumes it is simply about the virus & numbers infected.
How many small and medium cap companies will go under during the inevitable cash crunch in the coming months? 
Will debt defaults trigger another credit crunch in the interim? 

Could get a lot worse before it gets better. 

LobsterMemory

So these people who invested in passive funds because no-one can beat the markets now want to outsmart the market.
Crazy.

bostonerimus

LobsterMemory said:

So these people who invested in passive funds because no-one can beat the markets now want to outsmart the market.
Crazy.

Maybe you should say "So some of these people..." I'll take a look at the end of the quarter and maybe do some rebalancing of my mostly passive funds. People with VLSxxx will be automatically rebalanced.

kinger101

LobsterMemory said:

So these people who invested in passive funds because no-one can beat the markets now want to outsmart the market.
Crazy.

I don't necessarily see the contradiction with owning passive funds and attempting to time the market.  Not something I'd do, but I suspect the main motive for holding passives is people don't think active managers are worth their fees over the long run.  Conversely, market timing has little to no role in the majority of active funds.