Squeaky bum time!

badmemory

You never know, someone in government may finally decide it might be a good idea if we started making things again so we are not so dependent on imports from countries that lie about the diseases they are spreading.

Orby

bostonerimus said:

How often have numerous posters said there is bound to be a 10% correction sometime. Well here it is and it won't be the last one either. Your asset allocation must be designed according to your circumstances to weather such down turns. This was to be expected as the market has bee overvalues for a long time and it just too the contravirus to burst the bubble. The only people who should be a little concerned are those who just retired and cashed out a DB pension and bought in at the peak of the market, but they should have planned for a bad sequence of returns and so have enough cash, dividends or fixed income to wait the dip out without having to sell too much at a loss.

Yes I am one of those who bought in jan 2020 with DBcash out / not a lot of fun ! 

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir said:

Deleted_User said:

This is new territory. Nobody knows what will happen to the real economy as a result of a viral infection on this scale (or the countermeasures which are the actual source of economic hazard). This could all be over within a month or we could see some serious long term harm with social and economic consequences and mass unemployment.

Not obvious how fiscal measures can help

No one is forecasting that it'll be over in a month. At least from a UK perspective. 

No one was forecasting this would happen either. Otherwise (one hopes) there would have been lots of ventilators tucked away and available in an emergency. Lots of face masks and other protective gear. Instead there is a worldwide shortage of everything the healthcare systems need (except in some Asian countries like South Korea). 

For all we know, in a month we could have a vaccine, a drug or an efficient instantaneous test which would allow to pinpoint and isolate all the carriers and stop the spreading. Or not. We don’t know.

wymondham

Looks like my pension will be delayed...

bowlhead99

wymondham said:

Looks like my pension will be delayed...

From the chart, if you did your planning based on values a year ago, you're probably OK

Parking_Trouble

U.K.and U.S. are going to see confirmed cases and deaths rocket in the coming weeks. Far East is far better at containment and delay than the West. We're just washing our hands and self-isolating which many people jus don't bother to do. Unless the markets have factored this in there is likely to be another significant drop when the real impact is reflected in the official stats.
The unconfirmed 10,000 cases in the U.K. is a huge underestimate. Hang on to your hats.

ratechaser

Parking_Trouble said:

U.K.and U.S. are going to see confirmed cases and deaths rocket in the coming weeks. Far East is far better at containment and delay than the West. We're just washing our hands and self-isolating which many people jus don't bother to do. Unless the markets have factored this in there is likely to be another significant drop when the real impact is reflected in the official stats.
The unconfirmed 10,000 cases in the U.K. is a huge underestimate. Hang on to your hats.

+1 to that. The markets are bouncing back today in foetid feline fashion, and I see quite a bit more to come before we hit bottom - reality hasn't dawned in the US, and they lack any calm statesmanlike leadership to guide them through it.

Needless to say I won't call it exactly right, but I'm hoping to be within 10% of the floor from this current slump at the point when I do flip from gilts back to equities. I don't think today is the day to do that

Thrugelmir

Deleted_User said:

Thrugelmir said:

Deleted_User said:

This is new territory. Nobody knows what will happen to the real economy as a result of a viral infection on this scale (or the countermeasures which are the actual source of economic hazard). This could all be over within a month or we could see some serious long term harm with social and economic consequences and mass unemployment.

Not obvious how fiscal measures can help

No one is forecasting that it'll be over in a month. At least from a UK perspective. 

For all we know, in a month we could have a vaccine, a drug or an efficient instantaneous test which would allow to pinpoint and isolate all the carriers and stop the spreading. Or not. We don’t know.

Allowing for trials, testing and evaluation the end of the year would be more hopefull. Too late to stop the spread. Short term better that people build natural immunity which ultimately will minimise the spread. 

bowlhead99

The 'delay' tactic will be more preferred by most governments, and businesses.  Various studies show that tactics to reduce peak infection rates may prolong an epidemic from say nine weeks to 15-20 weeks, which prolongs the pain to the economy, but dampens the curve of how many people are infected at the same time, which is overall less burdensome for healthcare providers especially, and helps us get through it.

A long drawn out drop in productivity is unwelcome, but is something that can be handled more easily than a short sharp shock of having everyone meeting up for a big hug-out this weekend before either dying or getting back to business as usual.

coyrls

Deleted_User said:

For all we know, in a month we could have a vaccine, a drug or an efficient instantaneous test which would allow to pinpoint and isolate all the carriers and stop the spreading. Or not. We don’t know.

I would say, even in the current state of uncertainty, we do know that none of those things are going to happen in a month.