Squeaky bum time!

Thrugelmir

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

I last sold my holding at 438 in mid-December, so buying back in now at 353 means I've avoided a 19% drop for the loss of a 1.25% dividend payment. I'm hoping for further drops to the 330 region if things get worse, and 296 is my predicted bottom if things go really pear-shaped

Interesting. I see that you said above you were receiving £10k pa dividend payments, which indicates a very significant amount in CTY. Do you mean you sold all your CTY in mid-December and are now bought back the same value for the lower price, retaining the 19% profit in cash?  If so I would have thought you would be hoping for the price to rise again rather than drop to the 330 region?

The £10,000 dividend was just an example, but by retirement I am looking to have around £300K in my SIPP, which at 5% would yield £15K if I were totally invested in CTY. If my SIPP yield can fulfill my tax free allowance each year then it has met it's financial goal and I can retire.

At present I've not been totally invested in CTY, but have been gradually increasing my allocation. I sold my entire allocation in Dec 2019, and am just starting to scale back in now. My holding now is twice what I was holding in December, so I've doubled my allocation to CTY, and I plan to buy more upon further weakness/price drops. I've also used SLS for smaller companies but again sold out of that after a very strong run and would certainly consider buying back in if it becomes very oversold whilst I'm still looking to build capital. I'm still currently sat on significant cash reserves to (a) preserve capital, and (b) take advantage of further price drops.

Interesting to note that CTY now has a premium of 11.64% despite recent falls. A month ago when the share price was much higher the premium was around only 2%. Does that mean despite recent falls the share price is still 11.64% higher than the Net Asset Value of the underlying assets?

Buying and selling activity will determine the market price. 

TBC15

The sound of ripping cloth resonates throughout the land

JoeCrystal

Time to contribute more into the pension scheme I think!!!  

Sea_Shell

westv said:

Bums full squeak ahead today.

Maybe this is what all the loo roll is for!!??

westv

I'll revise my -25% or more fall to -40% or more by the time we're done.

ratechaser

I feel the need to pile into equities again.

Any...

time...

about...

now...ish...

almost...

there...

(repeat...)

Sunnylifeover50plan

What's the 90/ 180 day view on what might happen next? We know the markets are in shock and that people are likely to become ill/ die in increasing numbers but what's the likely (textbook) impact on; Jobs, House prices, inflation over the coming period. There doesn't appear to be any advantage to be had in terms of one country/ trading bloc against another given the global nature of the contagion. 

Thrugelmir

Sunnylifeover50plan said:

What's the 90/ 180 day view on what might happen next? We know the markets are in shock and that people are likely to become ill/ die in increasing numbers but what's the likely (textbook) impact on; Jobs, House prices, inflation over the coming period. There doesn't appear to be any advantage to be had in terms of one country/ trading bloc against another given the global nature of the contagion. 

There's many great smaller UK companies. Easier to track, evaluate and follow. One of my holdings actually rose 1.37% today. Been following the company for some 15 years. Never let me down. No debt on balance sheet. Churns out dividends. 

green_man

It depends very much on how long before the major markets (Europe, USA, Japan, China) see an improvement in the contagion rates.  
A prolonged period could have grave long term effects and it would be likely that a large number of businesses would end up folding, especially those service industry’s that rely on consistent daily footfall (Airlines, travel companies, retail, restaurants etc etc), this could easily lead to a global recession, low interest rates, widespread job losses etc.

A shorter period should be fairly quickly recovered from.  Crystal Ball time

m_c_s

A lot depends on how the US reacts from a fiscal perspective. Ofcourse it is a medical issue but the markets are pricing in recession and at the moment it is not known whether it will be a wide spread deep global recession or just a significant drop in global growth. The US fiscal stimulus is still being agreed between Trump and Pelosi but its size will most likely be enormous -possibly trillions of $s. That may stabilise the markets somewhat but clearly won't change the medical situation.