Squeaky bum time!

NedS

Audaxer said:

I have CTY as well in my portfolio. The dividend yield at over 5% is good now for new or additional investments to it. However my original investments in CTY are currently yielding around 4.7% pa. If I had invested more yesterday at around a 7% price drop my yield on that new investment would be around 5.4%, but my overall yield on my total invested in CTY would probably still be under 5%.

I tend to track the dividend yield and base my trades on that. I have a target price to buy / sell based on forward and trailing yields. I'm a firm believer that most years there are decent buying opportunities for whatever reason, so I'm guilty of being a closet market-timer based on yield. It has tended to give me good results (made 30% on CTY in 2019), with the knowledge that when I get it wrong I can sit on my 5% yield and wait for the next opportunity. I don't need to call every market top or every market bottom, I just need to buy and sell at a better price. I last sold my holding at 438 in mid-December, so buying back in now at 353 means I've avoided a 19% drop for the loss of a 1.25% dividend payment. I'm hoping for further drops to the 330 region if things get worse, and 296 is my predicted bottom if things go really pear-shaped.

Audaxer

NedS said:

I last sold my holding at 438 in mid-December, so buying back in now at 353 means I've avoided a 19% drop for the loss of a 1.25% dividend payment. I'm hoping for further drops to the 330 region if things get worse, and 296 is my predicted bottom if things go really pear-shaped

Interesting. I see that you said above you were receiving £10k pa dividend payments, which indicates a very significant amount in CTY. Do you mean you sold all your CTY in mid-December and are now bought back the same value for the lower price, retaining the 19% profit in cash?  If so I would have thought you would be hoping for the price to rise again rather than drop to the 330 region?

[Deleted User]

Parking_Trouble said:

Is this still just a regular correction or something bigger? - asking for a friend.
Still sitting tight roughly 5% down across 2 SIPPs and 2 ISAs.

Technically, correction is >10% and “bear” > 20%. As of yesterday S&P500 sat at a 19% drawdown. This is counted from the peak which we had at some point in February. 

NedS

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

I last sold my holding at 438 in mid-December, so buying back in now at 353 means I've avoided a 19% drop for the loss of a 1.25% dividend payment. I'm hoping for further drops to the 330 region if things get worse, and 296 is my predicted bottom if things go really pear-shaped

Interesting. I see that you said above you were receiving £10k pa dividend payments, which indicates a very significant amount in CTY. Do you mean you sold all your CTY in mid-December and are now bought back the same value for the lower price, retaining the 19% profit in cash?  If so I would have thought you would be hoping for the price to rise again rather than drop to the 330 region?

The £10,000 dividend was just an example, but by retirement I am looking to have around £300K in my SIPP, which at 5% would yield £15K if I were totally invested in CTY. If my SIPP yield can fulfill my tax free allowance each year then it has met it's financial goal and I can retire.

At present I've not been totally invested in CTY, but have been gradually increasing my allocation. I sold my entire allocation in Dec 2019, and am just starting to scale back in now. My holding now is twice what I was holding in December, so I've doubled my allocation to CTY, and I plan to buy more upon further weakness/price drops. I've also used SLS for smaller companies but again sold out of that after a very strong run and would certainly consider buying back in if it becomes very oversold whilst I'm still looking to build capital. I'm still currently sat on significant cash reserves to (a) preserve capital, and (b) take advantage of further price drops.

Audaxer

NedS said:

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

I last sold my holding at 438 in mid-December, so buying back in now at 353 means I've avoided a 19% drop for the loss of a 1.25% dividend payment. I'm hoping for further drops to the 330 region if things get worse, and 296 is my predicted bottom if things go really pear-shaped

Interesting. I see that you said above you were receiving £10k pa dividend payments, which indicates a very significant amount in CTY. Do you mean you sold all your CTY in mid-December and are now bought back the same value for the lower price, retaining the 19% profit in cash?  If so I would have thought you would be hoping for the price to rise again rather than drop to the 330 region?

The £10,000 dividend was just an example, but by retirement I am looking to have around £300K in my SIPP, which at 5% would yield £15K if I were totally invested in CTY. If my SIPP yield can fulfill my tax free allowance each year then it has met it's financial goal and I can retire.

At present I've not been totally invested in CTY, but have been gradually increasing my allocation. I sold my entire allocation in Dec 2019, and am just starting to scale back in now. My holding now is twice what I was holding in December, so I've doubled my allocation to CTY, and I plan to buy more upon further weakness/price drops. I've also used SLS for smaller companies but again sold out of that after a very strong run and would certainly consider buying back in if it becomes very oversold whilst I'm still looking to build capital. I'm still currently sat on significant cash reserves to (a) preserve capital, and (b) take advantage of further price drops.

Interesting to note that CTY now has a premium of 11.64% despite recent falls. A month ago when the share price was much higher the premium was around only 2%. Does that mean despite recent falls the share price is still 11.64% higher than the Net Asset Value of the underlying assets?

Parking_Trouble

Maybe you should start a CTY thread

westv

We had the dot com bubble. Then we had the credit crunch. Now we appear to have the covid-19 collapse.

MK62

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

Audaxer said:

NedS said:

I last sold my holding at 438 in mid-December, so buying back in now at 353 means I've avoided a 19% drop for the loss of a 1.25% dividend payment. I'm hoping for further drops to the 330 region if things get worse, and 296 is my predicted bottom if things go really pear-shaped

Interesting. I see that you said above you were receiving £10k pa dividend payments, which indicates a very significant amount in CTY. Do you mean you sold all your CTY in mid-December and are now bought back the same value for the lower price, retaining the 19% profit in cash?  If so I would have thought you would be hoping for the price to rise again rather than drop to the 330 region?

The £10,000 dividend was just an example, but by retirement I am looking to have around £300K in my SIPP, which at 5% would yield £15K if I were totally invested in CTY. If my SIPP yield can fulfill my tax free allowance each year then it has met it's financial goal and I can retire.

At present I've not been totally invested in CTY, but have been gradually increasing my allocation. I sold my entire allocation in Dec 2019, and am just starting to scale back in now. My holding now is twice what I was holding in December, so I've doubled my allocation to CTY, and I plan to buy more upon further weakness/price drops. I've also used SLS for smaller companies but again sold out of that after a very strong run and would certainly consider buying back in if it becomes very oversold whilst I'm still looking to build capital. I'm still currently sat on significant cash reserves to (a) preserve capital, and (b) take advantage of further price drops.

Interesting to note that CTY now has a premium of 11.64% despite recent falls. A month ago when the share price was much higher the premium was around only 2%. Does that mean despite recent falls the share price is still 11.64% higher than the Net Asset Value of the underlying assets?

In periods of high volatility, it's difficult to ascertain the real-time discount/premiums of ITs........such a jump could only really be explained if it's share price was holding up much better than it's underlying assets......and that doesn't appear to be the case at the moment....

westv

Bums full squeak ahead today.

Durban

westv said:

Bums full squeak ahead today.

westv said:

Bums full squeak ahead today.