Coronavirus effect on property markets?

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

salmakent25 said:

The Government really should issue some fact based and correct advice and not allow people to become panicked unnecessarily. Declaring that they will shut cities is plains stupid and impossible.

Do people really need to be told how to look after themselves? I know we are a Nanny state now. But that's a step too far. 
Flu, colds, fever, sore throats are all normal conditions that we all encounter during our lifetime. 

Covid19 is far more than SARS1, look at what China are doing rather than what they are saying

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

Has the Corona Virus passed yet....................

Nope we are only at the very beginning of the beginning 

you want to know what we will be like in a months time then just look at China a month ago.

they are about two months ahead of us.

if the UK don’t shut down every thing and go into lock down as China has done then it will be far worse

silvertooth

Yes the UK is taking this too lightly 

China were the one government who did things the best way with their extreme measures, they got the R0 down to very low numbers

other governments will see very high R0’s because they put the economy ahead of people’s lives

silvertooth

Many of the papers this morning are talking about the UK now finally going to follow China footsteps putting cities into lockdown and stoping people going to work or school


its too little too late 

this new pandemic is unusual because it’s got 27+ days incubation period

people are walking around spreading for around 27 days before they have any idea  

silvertooth

Most governments should have acted quicker

containment has now failed

doesnt mean they shouldn’t try to reduce the R0 now the cat is out of the bag 

The R0 of covid19 is above 7 meaning for everyone who gets it on average infect another 7 people. And then those 7 infect another 49 and so on, it grows exponentially 


if the governments take measures like China has done then they can get that R0 down to under 2, so for everyone infected only 2 more get it and then those two infected only 4, then those 4 only 8 and so on


but for the UK to do the same as China they need to stop everyone going to work and print trillions more pounds to pay companies to keep paying their employees even though they are not going to work, just the same as China is doing

GDB2222

silvertooth said:

Most governments should have acted quicker

containment has now failed

doesnt mean they shouldn’t try to reduce the R0 now the cat is out of the bag 

The R0 of covid19 is above 7 meaning for everyone who gets it on average infect another 7 people. And then those 7 infect another 49 and so on, it grows exponentially 


if the governments take measures like China has done then they can get that R0 down to under 2, so for everyone infected only 2 more get it and then those two infected only 4, then those 4 only 8 and so on


but for the UK to do the same as China they need to stop everyone going to work and print trillions more pounds to pay companies to keep paying their employees even though they are not going to work, just the same as China is doing

Where do you get an R0 of 7 from? WHO reports around 2.5.

MobileSaver

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

That, of course, is one of the fundamental flaws in the Crashy Time and HPC cult's thinking. In their fantasy world, house prices crash but everything else stays the same so their savings/investments are not affected, their ability to get cheap credit is not affected, banks only ask for small deposits and the number of properties on the market is not affected...

movilogo

In their fantasy world, house prices crash but everything else stays the same so their savings/investments are not affected, their ability to get cheap credit is not affected, banks only ask for small deposits and the number of properties on the market is not affected...

In a price crash situation number of properties will be more than demand. So this is drive down price further.
Savings will stay as is. Those with high savings/deposit will be in a better position.
For most buyers, raising deposit is the problem (when they are not selling their house to move up ladder). So, those with good savings and not in chain will indeed be better of (as long as they having some ongoing income from job etc. to ensure they can meet monthly mortgage payment going forward).

MobileSaver

movilogo said:

In a price crash situation number of properties will be more than demand. So this is drive down price further.

How do you work that out?!?! If the price is dropping why would more people suddenly decide to sell unless they absolutely had to?

movilogo said:

Savings will stay as is. Those with high savings/deposit will be in a better position.

Only if the savings are held as cash; lots of people with tens of thousands of pounds sitting around will have invested it somewhere. Even cash won't be entirely safe if any financial crisis causes a bank to fail.

movilogo said:

So, those with good savings and not in chain will indeed be better of (as long as they having some ongoing income from job etc. to ensure they can meet monthly mortgage payment going forward).

Exactly, the HPC zealots are just as likely as MSE forumites to lose their job if there is another major financial crisis.

movilogo

So far fatality is mostly within old people. If this becomes pandemic then many old people could die and market will flood with properties.
Whether economy will be able to deal with is complex scenario, that's a different question entirely.