Coronavirus effect on property markets?

silvertooth

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

I’m one of them, after all brexit is not as big a deal as the global pandemic crisis 


but could you please tell me is no deal brexit still looming? I thought we were out already?

sorry for if it’s a stupid question 

Thrugelmir

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

Thrugelmir

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

gfplux

silvertooth said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

I’m one of them, after all brexit is not as big a deal as the global pandemic crisis 


but could you please tell me is no deal brexit still looming? I thought we were out already?

sorry for if it’s a stupid question 

Yes Britain has left the EU. The legally binding withdrawal deal has been passed into international law. Britain is now in the transition period where little has changed until the end of 2020.
A no TRADE deal Brexit is a possibility. Face to face negotiations start on Monday.

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

the problem was too much debt, what was the answer? Even more debt that’s what they did to solve the problem of too much debt to start with.

now this black swan unexpected covid19 is going to cause all sorts of supply disruptions and kids not allowed to go to school, and adults not going to work. Soon just as in China the rest of the world will stop paying their bills rents and mortgages 

hospitals will be overrun 

stock markets will continue to crash banks will collapse 

confidence in fiat currency collapses

gold and silver return to true value which is a tenth of an ounce of silver is valued at a 12hr days wage as it has been all through history 

silvertooth

Hospitals in the uk are just not prepared for what is coming

next month we will see the coronavirus go viral no pun intended 

next step school and university close

next step all nonessential travel banned

work from home where possible but not many go to work anymore 

rents and mortgages not being paid but can evict everyone 

JakeHallAgain

JakeHall said:

I can't see property prices being affected by this. The only possibility would it be combining with something else that lowers prices.

At the moment the most likely event would be the government's statements that there will be no alignment with EU standards. A meaningful deal seems almost impossible by the end of the year. That no deal/limited areas deal will affect property prices more than the coronavirus is likely to, but I suppose the virus could reduce buyer confidence further.

Well, what a difference a month makes. Quoting my own message from last month (different username but I've had a nightmare since the forum change) and accepting that the number of cases and deaths sadly will only exponentially escalate. It's pretty hard to see that stopping for some time given how contagious it is and how globally and regionally interconnected we all are.

So contrary to what I said before, maybe on its own it will impact property prices through the knock on effect to assets from the economic harm it's causing.

As this thread is specifically on house prices, I still feel the EU negotiations are likely to produce the more direct effect on prices. If the EU continues to insist on alignment and the UK government continues to refuse it (and that doesn't seem likely to change as the US/Trump's influence will last until at least the end of this year, as the presidential election isn't until November 2020), it's going to be no deal or a very limited deal and I think that will have a more direct economic impact instead of the global one the virus is causing.

JakeHallAgain

silvertooth said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

I’m one of them, after all brexit is not as big a deal as the global pandemic crisis 


but could you please tell me is no deal brexit still looming? I thought we were out already?

sorry for if it’s a stupid question 

Not a stupid question at all. The whole Brexit saga has been very confusing and I think we've all struggled to keep up, me more than others!

We have left the EU but it is largely in name only. We now have a one year period (although in reality it needs to be wrapped up at least 2-3 months before the end of the year) to negotiate our future arrangement with the EU.

At the moment the UK insists it will not align with EU standards, but the EU insists we must in order to obtain a deal. There is an element of grandstanding, although there are other factors which are tying our hands. For example the U.S. has insisted a deal with it will be impossible if we choose to align with the EU.

So it looks likely that at the end of the year there will be no deal or a very limited deal that covers only certain areas.

As I and some others have predicted on this thread, while the virus may cause economic harm and have an effect on house prices, actually the economic harm from a lack of a deal will probably be far worse and cause a more direct impact on prices.

Thrugelmir

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere.