Coronavirus effect on property markets?

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Strongly disagree 

instead of paying down the debts they have increased them.

why the repo crisis since September of what you say is true that the crisis is over?

no deal brexit was bad enough to crash the global system but now with the covid19 pandemic the crash is in no doubt 

gfplux

JakeHallAgain said:

silvertooth said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

I’m one of them, after all brexit is not as big a deal as the global pandemic crisis 


but could you please tell me is no deal brexit still looming? I thought we were out already?

sorry for if it’s a stupid question 

Not a stupid question at all. The whole Brexit saga has been very confusing and I think we've all struggled to keep up, me more than others!

We have left the EU but it is largely in name only. We now have a one year period (although in reality it needs to be wrapped up at least 2-3 months before the end of the year) to negotiate our future arrangement with the EU.

At the moment the UK insists it will not align with EU standards, but the EU insists we must in order to obtain a deal. There is an element of grandstanding, although there are other factors which are tying our hands. For example the U.S. has insisted a deal with it will be impossible if we choose to align with the EU.

So it looks likely that at the end of the year there will be no deal or a very limited deal that covers only certain areas.

As I and some others have predicted on this thread, while the virus may cause economic harm and have an effect on house prices, actually the economic harm from a lack of a deal will probably be far worse and cause a more direct impact on prices.

Quite a good analysis however by using the word deal and not trade deal you are adding to the confusion for many who have not followed the process closely.
Britain is on Monday starting to negotiate a TRADE deal with the EU.

Thrugelmir

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Strongly disagree 

instead of paying down the debts they have increased them.

why the repo crisis since September of what you say is true that the crisis is over?

no deal brexit was bad enough to crash the global system but now with the covid19 pandemic the crash is in no doubt 

I don't think you fully understand what went on in the period 2006-2008 , and the reasons behind it. Nor the extent to which the BOE intervened to keep UK banks afloat. Stress testing of the banks on an annual basis since hasn't been a game nor the introduction of Basle 111. Which was created in the aftermath of the GFC. 

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thrugelmir said:

GDB2222 said:

silvertooth said:

Crashy_Time said:

silvertooth said:

gfplux said:

With large drops in share prices what happens to liquidity?
if there is no money to lend where do you go for your mortgage?

The bigger problems are when people stop paying their rents and mortgages 


first kids are not allowed to go to school which means parents can’t go to work, next every one doesn’t go to work

Of course after many years of super low mortgage payments many people in the UK will have salted away two or three years living expenses.....surely?........the initial hit will be to BTL and AirBnb as people stay put due to the virus and the looming No Deal Brexit.

What do you mean the looming no deal brexit? I thought it was done and sealed?

Lots of people have no clue at all about Brexit.

Nor about many of the events that happened behind the scenes during the GFC.  Only afterwards do the full facts come to light. 

Agreed

including the fact that the gfc never ended it’s just been postponed 

We are experiencing a consequence of 11 years of monetary (experimental) policy now. Cheap interest rates changed the way many investors viewed markets. Fundamentals got lost in the rush. Life as always is cyclical. Good things inevitably come to an end. As humans, do, we adapt to the changed conditions. This time feels different. 

Yes it’s true none of the problems were solved in 2008, they were just pushed into the future and now the can can’t be kicked any further.

The root cause has been addressed. Certainly in the UK at least, and the USA. The financial system has been stabilised. Banks have rebuilt their balance sheets and progressively been forced through a series of measures to deleverage. Banks this time will be able to absorb the shock. Reprecussions are going to felt elsewhere. 

Strongly disagree 

instead of paying down the debts they have increased them.

why the repo crisis since September of what you say is true that the crisis is over?

no deal brexit was bad enough to crash the global system but now with the covid19 pandemic the crash is in no doubt 

I don't think you fully understand what went on in the period 2006-2008 , and the reasons behind it. Nor the extent to which the BOE intervened to keep UK banks afloat. Stress testing of the banks on an annual basis since hasn't been a game nor the introduction of Basle 111. Which was created in the aftermath of the GFC. 

Yes Basel 3 will send gold to the moon and silver to Pluto

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-04-02/Will-Basel-III-Send-Gold-to-the-Moon-Report-2-Apr.html

silvertooth

Thugelmir what do you make of the Repo crisis the way these banks need to borrow BILLIONS every day to stop collapsing?

salmakent25

The Government really should issue some fact based and correct advice and not allow people to become panicked unnecessarily. Declaring that they will shut cities is plains stupid and impossible.

silvertooth

salmakent25 said:

The Government really should issue some fact based and correct advice and not allow people to become panicked unnecessarily. Declaring that they will shut cities is plains stupid and impossible.

That’s what they said in all these other places before things went crazy


we don’t know yet the extent to how crazy things will get here in the uk


but it’s looking likely 80% will get infected over the next ten years to 2030 and hospitals will be overrun

or they may reduce that number by the draconian measures China are doing

which option is best?

Thrugelmir

silvertooth said:

Thugelmir what do you make of the Repo crisis the way these banks need to borrow BILLIONS every day to stop collapsing?

Repo crisis has been suggested as being down to structural issues in the lending market. With investment banks and hedge funds using the cash available to arbitrage trades. Consequently there's a shortage of liquidity in the market for other banks. 

Thrugelmir

salmakent25 said:

The Government really should issue some fact based and correct advice and not allow people to become panicked unnecessarily. Declaring that they will shut cities is plains stupid and impossible.

Do people really need to be told how to look after themselves? I know we are a Nanny state now. But that's a step too far. 
Flu, colds, fever, sore throats are all normal conditions that we all encounter during our lifetime. 

silvertooth

Thrugelmir said:

silvertooth said:

Thugelmir what do you make of the Repo crisis the way these banks need to borrow BILLIONS every day to stop collapsing?

Repo crisis has been suggested as being down to structural issues in the lending market. With investment banks and hedge funds using the cash available to arbitrage trades. Consequently there's a shortage of liquidity in the market for other banks. 

Do you believe that’s all there is to it?

things were looking shaky before the pandemic 

now things are looking beyond shaky