Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Sea_Shell

I don't think many people are going to be house hunting in the Lombardy region of Italy any time soon.

If people are restricted in their movements, house sales will suffer, and will be way down on their priorities list.

UK next?

GDB2222

Sea_Shell said:

I don't think many people are going to be house hunting in the Lombardy region of Italy any time soon.

If people are restricted in their movements, house sales will suffer, and will be way down on their priorities list.

UK next?

I think it’s almost inevitable to become endemic throughout Europe. The average Cov19 sufferer infects 2.3 others. So, unless completely draconian steps are taken, the numbers infected will double every 14-28 days. 

Compare that to flu where the average sufferer infects only 1.3 others, and yet in the USA 

8% of the population are infected each year. 

The question was always only whether governments would take extreme measures early enough. So far, they have been remarkably complacent. 

I was quite amused by the picture at the top of this article. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/coronavirus-northern-italian-towns-close-schools-and-businesses?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The guy on the right has managed to get a mask, but doesn’t know how to use it.

gfplux

GDB2222 said:

gfplux said:

This is going on and on and on.
Don't forget to support your local Chinese restaurant.
this from the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2020/feb/23/four-seasons-london-an-act-of-solidarity-that-also-gets-me-roast-duck
QUOTE
It’s after dinner that we really notice it. London’s Gerrard Street on a Saturday night is usually the restaurant equivalent of a mosh pit: a heaving crowd of hungry people, the scent of scorched wok in their nostrils, and the reflection of the bronzed and shiny roast ducks that crowd the windows of Chinatown’s main drag in their eyeballs. Tonight, there was a pre-cinema rush, which we got caught up in. But now it’s gone 9pm. The pedestrianised street is sparsely populated and through the picture windows, chairs and tables sit forlorn and empty. I’ve never seen it like this before.
END QUOTE

Is Jay Rayner also an expert on epidemiology now? Unless you are addicted to Chinese food, why not eat some other cuisine? You are avoiding only a tiny risk but at absolutely zero cost.

So sad to read your comment.

gfplux

GDB2222 said:

Sea_Shell said:

I don't think many people are going to be house hunting in the Lombardy region of Italy any time soon.

If people are restricted in their movements, house sales will suffer, and will be way down on their priorities list.

UK next?

I think it’s almost inevitable to become endemic throughout Europe. The average Cov19 sufferer infects 2.3 others. So, unless completely draconian steps are taken, the numbers infected will double every 14-28 days. 

Compare that to flu where the average sufferer infects only 1.3 others, and yet in the USA 

8% of the population are infected each year. 

The question was always only whether governments would take extreme measures early enough. So far, they have been remarkably complacent. 

I was quite amused by the picture at the top of this article. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/coronavirus-northern-italian-towns-close-schools-and-businesses?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

The guy on the right has managed to get a mask, but doesn’t know how to use it.

Johnson is hiding from the flooding in the UK. I wonder what he is planning?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo said:

 I think it's impact will be limited to the places made famous by BBC news and properties on a riverbank.

People will still flock to buy new builds on flood plains.

yes climate change is a biggie and its path is much more of a certainty than coronavirus, however most people are somewhat short term in their thinking. When people are hell bent on getting a house then they are focussed on that and even sub-conciously might ignore any bad omens that get in the way of their dream. just human nature.

Yes, that is how the property bubble was pumped up in the first place, bankers know very well how to tap the basic emotions of fear (of missing out) and greed (for property price gains) but as a commentator said the other day on Bloomberg "If this isn`t contained soon all hell is going to break loose in credit markets", when "all hell" breaks loose in credit markets that affects people`s ability to find a cheap mortgage and affects sellers ability to flog an overpriced house (already affected before the virus) to someone who is only looking at the monthly payment in their desperation to "get on the ladder". If this shapes up the way some people are saying you really don`t want to be sitting on big mortgage debt on an overpriced house.

GDB2222

gfplux said:

GDB2222 said:

gfplux said:

This is going on and on and on.
Don't forget to support your local Chinese restaurant.
this from the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2020/feb/23/four-seasons-london-an-act-of-solidarity-that-also-gets-me-roast-duck
QUOTE
It’s after dinner that we really notice it. London’s Gerrard Street on a Saturday night is usually the restaurant equivalent of a mosh pit: a heaving crowd of hungry people, the scent of scorched wok in their nostrils, and the reflection of the bronzed and shiny roast ducks that crowd the windows of Chinatown’s main drag in their eyeballs. Tonight, there was a pre-cinema rush, which we got caught up in. But now it’s gone 9pm. The pedestrianised street is sparsely populated and through the picture windows, chairs and tables sit forlorn and empty. I’ve never seen it like this before.
END QUOTE

Is Jay Rayner also an expert on epidemiology now? Unless you are addicted to Chinese food, why not eat some other cuisine? You are avoiding only a tiny risk but at absolutely zero cost.

So sad to read your comment.

Sorry. I apologise to all those readers who own or work in Chinese restaurants. I was just explaining why people are avoiding eating Chinese, not advocating it. 

In fact, unless you believe against all the odds that governments can curtail the spread of the disease, you may be better off catching it early, before the hospitals fill up.

Crashy_Time

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1246178/Coronavirus-panic-Italy-outbreak-military-lockdown-quarantine-South-Korea-China-latest

Pretty big economic impact coming down the track from all this, definite impact on house prices IMO.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

If this shapes up the way some people are saying you really don`t want to be sitting on big mortgage debt on an overpriced house.

Why should people worry about having a "big mortgage debt" if COVID-19 takes hold in the UK?

Crashy_Time said:

Pretty big economic impact coming down the track from all this, definite impact on house prices IMO.

What is your prediction then, 10% off by Christmas 2020?

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

If this shapes up the way some people are saying you really don`t want to be sitting on big mortgage debt on an overpriced house.

Why should people worry about having a "big mortgage debt" if COVID-19 takes hold in the UK?

Crashy_Time said:

Pretty big economic impact coming down the track from all this, definite impact on house prices IMO.

What is your prediction then, 10% off by Christmas 2020?

It doesn`t have to take hold in the UK, if it upsets the Chinese and other economies enough to cause effects in the credit markets it has an immediate effect on (especially) the over leveraged  (specifically in BTL/London and SE) that may want to remortgage at low rates and those who want to sell at high prices or who paid very high prices. If you noticed what happened in 2008 and the aftermath of central bank intervention you should be aware of how a finely balanced debt bubble reacts to a freezing up of credit markets and the massive stimulus required to keep it going, this kind of stimulus is no longer politically or economically viable though.........

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Why should people worry about having a "big mortgage debt" if COVID-19 takes hold in the UK?
What is your prediction then, 10% off by Christmas 2020?

It doesn`t have to take hold in the UK, if it upsets the Chinese and other economies enough to cause effects in the credit markets it has an immediate effect

So, again, what is your prediction on how this "pretty big economic impact ... on house prices" will affect us and when? 10%? 20%? 30% drop in house prices?