Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

the most important fact to consider when looking at the next decade to 2030 is that - EVEN AFTER SOMEONE WHO RECOVERS FROM COVID19 AND DIDN'T DIE FROM IT -THEY ARE STILL CONTAGIOUS. 

Now think about the next decade to 2030!

If people are properly recovered and aren't infected with the virus then, by definition, they won't be contagious. There have been a few cases where people have tested negative but are still contagious - that's more about testing than some sort of unique super virulence.

With Covid-19 things will improve. Anyone infected that survives (nearly everyone) will have some immunity which, although it won't last forever, will mean, eventually, there will be a wide base of immunity. At that point it just becomes another Coronavirus and it's just like having a cold and / or we get seasonal outbreaks. Of course if it turns out to be more virulent and economically damaging that the others then there will be pressure to develop a vaccine.

In 2030 you'll be 10 years older and hopefully wiser.

gfplux

We all we all need to do our part in combatting the spread. However does that mean limiting outing to shops, restaurants, places of entertainment and using the car rather than public transport?
What about visiting estate agent, going to the Bank for a mortgage, or viewing a property?
All those actions have economic consequences and the knock on to jobs.
How are you playing your part?
We are just about to set off to Ikea by car. There is a suggestion that we wear gloves and try not to touch things!
What a strange world we live in.

silvertooth

There is. I doubt there are cases who have been declared clear but have still spread to others

silvertooth

silvertooth said:

There is no doubt there are cases who have been declared clear but have still spread to others

The testing kits so far are proving very unreliable 

silvertooth

What are everyone else’s projected best guesses for the markets next few years as there is still no end in sight for bad things are going to get?

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

What are everyone else’s projected best guesses for the markets next few years as there is still no end in sight for bad things are going to get?

There is an end in sight - I explained it to you.

I'm hoping the market 'chaos' (talking head speak for orderly falls) continues until the 8th April when I shall be making the biggest pension contribution of my life.  

silvertooth

Sailtheworld said:

silvertooth said:

What are everyone else’s projected best guesses for the markets next few years as there is still no end in sight for bad things are going to get?

There is an end in sight - I explained it to you.

I'm hoping the market 'chaos' (talking head speak for orderly falls) continues until the 8th April when I shall be making the biggest pension contribution of my life.  

You didn’t explain what the end in sight is? Are you pinning all your hopes in a vaccine? I wouldn’t hold up too much hope as the virus is mutating and work has to start all over again on a vaccine.

your pension could take a nose dive if it’s inside the fragile system. My pension is outside the system because I’m buying physical silver bullion while it’s still so low 

silvertooth

Previous projections estimated 1 in 2 people would get the Wohan 400 virus but now it has been updated to say 70% of mankind will get infected by the end of this decade

Sailtheworld

silvertooth said:

Sailtheworld said:

silvertooth said:

What are everyone else’s projected best guesses for the markets next few years as there is still no end in sight for bad things are going to get?

There is an end in sight - I explained it to you.

I'm hoping the market 'chaos' (talking head speak for orderly falls) continues until the 8th April when I shall be making the biggest pension contribution of my life.  

You didn’t explain what the end in sight is? Are you pinning all your hopes in a vaccine? I wouldn’t hold up too much hope as the virus is mutating and work has to start all over again on a vaccine.

your pension could take a nose dive if it’s inside the fragile system. My pension is outside the system because I’m buying physical silver bullion while it’s still so low 

The end in sight is infected people that survive will have an immunity. This immunity isn't permanent but it will turn Covid-19 into just another Coronavirus that's no more of a nuisance than a cold. Perhaps that's too optimistic and it'll be like a seasonal flu. If it's economically damaging then there probably will be a vaccine. Of course it may not be fully effective but neither is the approach to the flu vaccine either.

I'll take my chances inside the fragile system with my pension and will be delighted to buy into the market at lower levels. I sort of guessed your pension would be silver bullion - go for it - you keep buying using taxed income with a 20% VAT charge on top. Of course it won't be insured because you think that'll keep it hush hush. The irony is that if the balloon does go up and silver really does becomes a means of exchange it'll be taken away from you in very short order - probably violently. Still, something to look forward to I suppose.

GDB2222

"The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February. This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die."   (My emphasis.)
That's from a recent WHO situation report.

The point is that it acknowledges that there may well be 10's or 100's of thousands of people in China that got infected, but just sat at home until they got better, or possibly didn't feel  ill at all. That would certainly help to explain any discrepancy with the apparently low death toll so far on The Diamond Princess. 

Of course, what that also means is that it's going to be really, really difficult to stop the disease spreading, with lots of symptomless people around.   But the proportion of the infected population that dies might be some quite small fraction of the 2.3% based on the Chinese data.