Coronavirus effect on property markets?

silvertooth

Chinese are selling up property all over the world as they are all cash strapped now

Sailtheworld

GDB2222 said:

You can't compare COV to ordinary flu.  COV is far more contagious and far more deadly. 

That may well turn out to be the case but it's too early to be anywhere near sure. For now it's an assumption that would help inform a worse case calculation but that's all.

I'm going to remind you of the cruise ship again. The death rate for Covid-19 in those 70 and older appears startlingly high but, so far, out of a ship full of oldies it's only seen off two of them I think. Both in their eighties?

Now I'm willing to concede that the crinklies on this ship were better nourished and in better health than the average person their age but at the high infection rate and death rates (that you're trying to persuade me are typical) they should've been dropping like flies.

GDB2222

You might like to have a look here:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I'm not trying to persuade you of some theory of my own. I'm just quoting the results of an epidemiological study of 45k cases in China. 

It's still rather early days to see if many people on the cruise ship die. They may be receiving rather better treatment than was available in China, as the numbers are much smaller. Or there may be some other explanation, as has been proposed here, eg a lot of people get the disease mildly and it's only the more serious cases that came to the Chinese doctors' attention.

triathlon

Everyone on HPC.com is now a complete expert on the coronavirus.
And of course those experts are predicting a complete economic meltdown because of it and a crashing property market, what a surprise 

Thrugelmir

triathlon said:

Everyone on HPC.com is now a complete expert on the coronavirus.
And of course those experts are predicting a complete economic meltdown because of it and a crashing property market, what a surprise 

Fortunately at the current time the UK suffers from a housing shortage. 

Getting_greyer

triathlon said:

Everyone on HPC.com is now a complete expert on the coronavirus.

Spat me brew out 

Sailtheworld

GDB2222 said:

You might like to have a look here:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I'm not trying to persuade you of some theory of my own. I'm just quoting the results of an epidemiological study of 45k cases in China. 

It's still rather early days to see if many people on the cruise ship die. They may be receiving rather better treatment than was available in China, as the numbers are much smaller. Or there may be some other explanation, as has been proposed here, eg a lot of people get the disease mildly and it's only the more serious cases that came to the Chinese doctors' attention.

I did use some of their findings (i.e. the dramatic increase in death rates for the elderly) when pondering why, at such apparent rates so many aboard the cruise ship have been spared. Even that data at 6 days since publication is old news - not that the media are bothered - they're still putting the frightners on using data from a publication weeks ago in the Lancet - based on 100 subjects.

Undoubtedly the people on the cruise ship received excellent medical attention; probably the sort of attention that will be unsustainable as it spreads. Even so I suspect a year from now we'll be looking at numbers which are well below any worse case calculations - this is a story about economics. I'm hoping (against hope) that we look at some of the supply chain issues as production in China slows down and ask ourselves not just whether some of this stuff could be made closer to home but whether we need it at all.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

You might like to have a look here:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I'm not trying to persuade you of some theory of my own. I'm just quoting the results of an epidemiological study of 45k cases in China. 

It's still rather early days to see if many people on the cruise ship die. They may be receiving rather better treatment than was available in China, as the numbers are much smaller. Or there may be some other explanation, as has been proposed here, eg a lot of people get the disease mildly and it's only the more serious cases that came to the Chinese doctors' attention.

 I'm hoping (against hope) that we look at some of the supply chain issues as production in China slows down and ask ourselves not just whether some of this stuff could be made closer to home but whether we need it at all.

Fits in with Trump's narrative to onshore manufacturing. Global supply chains extend well beyond one country. 

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

You might like to have a look here:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I'm not trying to persuade you of some theory of my own. I'm just quoting the results of an epidemiological study of 45k cases in China. 

It's still rather early days to see if many people on the cruise ship die. They may be receiving rather better treatment than was available in China, as the numbers are much smaller. Or there may be some other explanation, as has been proposed here, eg a lot of people get the disease mildly and it's only the more serious cases that came to the Chinese doctors' attention.

 I'm hoping (against hope) that we look at some of the supply chain issues as production in China slows down and ask ourselves not just whether some of this stuff could be made closer to home but whether we need it at all.

Fits in with Trump's narrative to onshore manufacturing. Global supply chains extend well beyond one country. 

America First deals with the question of whether domestic consumption should be manufactured locally. It absolutely doesn't ask the question whether consumption could be reduced - that goes against the very principle of the American way of life. 

silvertooth

When this thread started many thought what has that got to do with the uk property markets, surely it’s only Chinese property markets that will suffer?

fast forward to today and it’s obvious it’s not just China but the entire world affected by this black swan unexpected crisis. Stock markets are crashing, businesses are crashing all over the world which will have knock on effects and reverberations all over the place. People will stop paying rents and mortgages soon and property markets will start crashing along with other markets. Only gold and silver are surging in reverse correlation to property and financial markets.

and here we are in Feb 2020 there is no end in sight.

the Olympic Games will be cancelled and it’s looking like Christmas will be cancelled because of the financial crisis 

the most important fact to consider when looking at the next decade to 2030 is that - EVEN AFTER SOMEONE WHO RECOVERS FROM COVID19 AND DIDN'T DIE FROM IT -THEY ARE STILL CONTAGIOUS. 

Now think about the next decade to 2030!