Coronavirus effect on property markets?

lisyloo

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

lisyloo said:

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

Wouldn't it show in stock markets, funds, portfolios etc. Immediate the market had the knowledge?
mine isn’t showing any effect which could be that it’s already hedged certain risks.
are investment portfolios showing this in genral? E.g. is yours down?

As long as retail investors continue to purchase passive global trackers in the belief that they are immune from downturns. Then markets will remain benign. If panic were to set in then there'll be a stampede for the exits. 

Lisyloo has a better take on it - the markets reflect the data available. If you think you can assess the impact of Coronavirus better than the markets or have access to to better data then go make money.
Trackers have nothing to do with it.

Not quite. If you think you can asses the market reaction better than everyone else then go make money.
personally I don’t think I do know better so I don’t try to time the markets or think it’s a sensible thing to do with your long term home.
are people going to be pulling out of trackers?
the vast majority of people I know have no clue and don’t manage their pensions at all and are simply in their company pension funds choice of default fund.
ive seen on here one strategy (might have been sailtheworld sugested it) simply using a global tracker fund and leaving it there.
do normal people like bus drivers, van drivers, nurses actively manage their pensions and investments? Or is it a minority activity?

if there are so many sophisticated investors out there why haven’t we seen an effect already?

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

Sailtheworld

lisyloo said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

lisyloo said:

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

Wouldn't it show in stock markets, funds, portfolios etc. Immediate the market had the knowledge?
mine isn’t showing any effect which could be that it’s already hedged certain risks.
are investment portfolios showing this in genral? E.g. is yours down?

As long as retail investors continue to purchase passive global trackers in the belief that they are immune from downturns. Then markets will remain benign. If panic were to set in then there'll be a stampede for the exits. 

Lisyloo has a better take on it - the markets reflect the data available. If you think you can assess the impact of Coronavirus better than the markets or have access to to better data then go make money.
Trackers have nothing to do with it.

Not quite. If you think you can asses the market reaction better than everyone else then go make money.
personally I don’t think I do know better so I don’t try to time the markets or think it’s a sensible thing to do with your long term home.
are people going to be pulling out of trackers?
the vast majority of people I know have no clue and don’t manage their pensions at all and are simply in their company pension funds choice of default fund.
ive seen on here one strategy (might have been sailtheworld sugested it) simply using a global tracker fund and leaving it there.
do normal people like bus drivers, van drivers, nurses actively manage their pensions and investments? Or is it a minority activity?

if there are so many sophisticated investors out there why haven’t we seen an effect already?

People won't pull out of trackers until they have a reliable way of finding fund managers who offer a return premium over their fees. Of course it won't happen because (a) fund managers aren't showing any progress and (b) the market is too efficient.
There's a snobbery attached to being a retail investor but the reality is that institutional investors are the ultimate herd animals. When they get it wrong they need to be wrong at the same time as everyone else - never be wrong and alone.

GDB2222

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

I’m utterly lost by your argument here. There are about 300-400 people on that ship who we know have caught COV. That’s despite people being more or less isolated. So, it’s proven to be very infectious. 

I don’t think that there’s been any deaths yet, but it’s early days. The experts are expecting mortality to be in the range 1-5% of those affected. 

To put that in perspective. There are around 500k deaths in this country each year. COV, if it becomes widespread, could double that for a year or two. 

Sailtheworld

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

I’m utterly lost by your argument here. There are about 300-400 people on that ship who we know have caught COV. That’s despite people being more or less isolated. So, it’s proven to be very infectious. 

I don’t think that there’s been any deaths yet, but it’s early days. The experts are expecting mortality to be in the range 1-5% of those affected. 

To put that in perspective. There are around 500k deaths in this country each year. COV, if it becomes widespread, could double that for a year or two. 

For a virus like this to cause maximum damage a cruise ship is the perfect environment. 3500, say, people living in very close proximity who are older than the population at large and somewhat less fit and healthy too. For a virus this is a dream ticket.
I think something like 600 people have tested positive. Given the perfect conditions that's not a lot really and, touch wood, not a single person has died yet.

Multiplying the UK's population by 1% to 5% and concluding annual deaths could double in 2020/ 21 doesn't put anything into perspective - it's just multiplication and then comparing that number with another for dramatic effect. If Coronavirus can't see off between 35 and 175 oldies on a cruise ship then it's not going to do it to the general population.

1m deaths in the UK in 2020 & 2021 just doesn't pass the sniff test. If we're spared we should revisit this towards the end of the year.
EDIT: The fact that we're weeks into this 'pandemic' and we're talking about some people who have had a rotten end to their holiday probably provides better context.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

No searching I can assure you. Some of us don't spend our time being assumptive to reinforce our our own opinions. 

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

No searching I can assure you. Some of us don't spend our time being assumptive to reinforce our our own opinions. 

When biases are so vague and undefined I suppose not much searching is required to confirm them.

lisyloo

I think there’s quite a few choices for negativity at the moment e.g. Brexit trade deal, immigration policy, possibly ir35, storm Dennis flooding, budget.
coronavirus is some way down my list of things to worry about
but I agree it’s sentiment that affects markets.

odd that at the moment that seems good for property

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

No searching I can assure you. Some of us don't spend our time being assumptive to reinforce our our own opinions. 

When biases are so vague and undefined I suppose not much searching is required to confirm them.

Thought that you believe in efficient markets. There's plenty of market research and indepth commentary available. Not just the virus risk that's influences share prices. 

GDB2222

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

I’m utterly lost by your argument here. There are about 300-400 people on that ship who we know have caught COV. That’s despite people being more or less isolated. So, it’s proven to be very infectious. 

I don’t think that there’s been any deaths yet, but it’s early days. The experts are expecting mortality to be in the range 1-5% of those affected. 

To put that in perspective. There are around 500k deaths in this country each year. COV, if it becomes widespread, could double that for a year or two. 

For a virus like this to cause maximum damage a cruise ship is the perfect environment. 3500, say, people living in very close proximity who are older than the population at large and somewhat less fit and healthy too. For a virus this is a dream ticket.
I think something like 600 people have tested positive. Given the perfect conditions that's not a lot really and, touch wood, not a single person has died yet.

Multiplying the UK's population by 1% to 5% and concluding annual deaths could double in 2020/ 21 doesn't put anything into perspective - it's just multiplication and then comparing that number with another for dramatic effect. If Coronavirus can't see off between 35 and 175 oldies on a cruise ship then it's not going to do it to the general population.

1m deaths in the UK in 2020 & 2021 just doesn't pass the sniff test. If we're spared we should revisit this towards the end of the year.
EDIT: The fact that we're weeks into this 'pandemic' and we're talking about some people who have had a rotten end to their holiday probably provides better context.

I disagree on two points. 
"I think something like 600 people have tested positive. Given the perfect conditions that's not a lot really " - They've been locked in their cabins more or less, with food brought to them by people wearing isolation gear. That's clearly not the perfect conditions for viruses to spread. Public transport in the rush hour is the perfect conditions.

"If Coronavirus can't see off between 35 and 175 oldies on a cruise ship then it's not going to do it to the general population." - You are just saying that nobody has died on the ship yet, so the virus isn't deadly at all. You are putting your expertise ahead of the public health professionals. They say that the mortality rate is in the 1-5% area. You say it's close to nil. Unless you have some credentials I don't know about, why would  anyone prefer your views over the head of PHE?

Incidentally, I think that the reason you are being overoptimistic is that there's quite a long period before symptoms show in COV. Followed by quite a long period before the illness becomes life-threatening in the minority where that occurs. Hopefully, you'll prove correct and there won't be any deaths amongst the cruisers. However, just at the moment, I think it's too soon.