Coronavirus effect on property markets?

lisyloo

I am more worried about the effect it would have on the frail elderly members of my family and also the young ones who haven’t reached full immunity ( although not clear how it affects children and babies) not to mention the dead who are all sons, daughters, mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters.
of course we all need places to live, money to live on and food to eat and therefore functioning supply chains for food and medicine, however there is something distasteful about jumping on this as a way to make money I.e. hoping for a property crash, when actually it’s a humanitarian issue.
i’m not against discussion far from it but I don’t think we have any idea how it play out at the moment.
i hope the containment measure will work and it doesn’t get to the poorer areas of Africa.

silvertooth

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

lisyloo

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

silvertooth

How many people are not going to work in China? When will they be able to go back to work?

what are the long term consequences for the rest of the world?

silvertooth

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because there are no markets anymore, all there is are manipulations.

we do not have free markets at all, the numbers are purely what the manipulators type in

but the correction will come sooner after this black swan

Crashy_Time

lisyloo said:

I am more worried about the effect it would have on the frail elderly members of my family and also the young ones who haven’t reached full immunity ( although not clear how it affects children and babies) not to mention the dead who are all sons, daughters, mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters.
of course we all need places to live, money to live on and food to eat and therefore functioning supply chains for food and medicine, however there is something distasteful about jumping on this as a way to make money I.e. hoping for a property crash, when actually it’s a humanitarian issue.
i’m not against discussion far from it but I don’t think we have any idea how it play out at the moment.
i hope the containment measure will work and it doesn’t get to the poorer areas of Africa.

If it becomes a major issue, and it looks to be heading that way, the last thing people will be worried about is the property bubble exploding. I think your original predictions on this one are going to be proved to be as far out as your predictions on Brexit.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

lisyloo

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

I am more worried about the effect it would have on the frail elderly members of my family and also the young ones who haven’t reached full immunity ( although not clear how it affects children and babies) not to mention the dead who are all sons, daughters, mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters.
of course we all need places to live, money to live on and food to eat and therefore functioning supply chains for food and medicine, however there is something distasteful about jumping on this as a way to make money I.e. hoping for a property crash, when actually it’s a humanitarian issue.
i’m not against discussion far from it but I don’t think we have any idea how it play out at the moment.
i hope the containment measure will work and it doesn’t get to the poorer areas of Africa.

If it becomes a major issue, and it looks to be heading that way, the last thing people will be worried about is the property bubble exploding. I think your original predictions on this one are going to be proved to be as far out as your predictions on Brexit.

I don’t agree it’s heading that way. We’ve had 3 days of drops in China and 8 out of 9 in the uk are out of hospital. Looks like they’ve done a good job of containment.
yes I think individual (non professional) predictions can be way off, that’s why I’ve never tried to play the market and advise against doing it DIY.
there are some who think they know better and some of those are doing incredibly badly e.g. lost everything.

making predictions just for fun is different to taking action with serious consequences. I don’t think I know better which is why I consult with the experts (accountants, IFA) who have a track record of giving good advice and protecting wealth. I don’t give two hoots if I’m at FIRE at 55 and you want to call it “uncreative”. 

lisyloo

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

Wouldn't it show in stock markets, funds, portfolios etc. Immediate the market had the knowledge?
mine isn’t showing any effect which could be that it’s already hedged certain risks.
are investment portfolios showing this in genral? E.g. is yours down?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo said:

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

Wouldn't it show in stock markets, funds, portfolios etc. Immediate the market had the knowledge?
mine isn’t showing any effect which could be that it’s already hedged certain risks.
are investment portfolios showing this in genral? E.g. is yours down?

Mine is up about 6.25%, but the Japanese economy just went down by about the same..
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-economy-gdp/japan-economy-shrinks-6-3-annualised-in-fourth-quarter-biggest-fall-since-2014-idUKKBN20A0SU
and for sure there will be declines to come from China this year, it will all feed through eventually IMO. Most investors run on fear and greed, not knowledge, and for years the market has been relying on the Fed/Central banks to fire QE at any problems that crop up meaning that true price discovery/value is severely distorted. I don`t think they can QE away a proper slowdown from China TBH, but at the moment I believe that the "market" is positioning for massive monetary stimulus from the PBOC.